Valero Bets,LIV, DK Own%, Weather & Content Update
CONTENT UPDATE
I’ll be dropping my (un)official World Golfing Rankings show Thursday morning on all PME feeds. I’m proud of this one, and it will come with an article in Golf Digest on Friday as well. If you could share that around, I’d appreciate it.
Also, I’m giving 3 people $250 cash. So get in the giveaways!
Then, I’ll send out another newsletter once that’s out to act as the Masters Drop Page. I’ll update that throughout the next 5 days with quick links to all the content, so bookmark it and check back.
FREE SQUARE + PME CLASSIC
We’ve been doing a great job filling the NEW PME Classic on Underdog but the malaise is setting in. It’s only 40% full right now, and not filling this one quickly means we’ll have less RAKE FREE for the Masters next week. Go hop in if you haven’t yet.
Also, if you’ve used code “MAYO” at Underdog already, you get a special bonus next week. If you haven’t used code “MAYO” (or the link below) to sign up, then there’s still time to do it and get said special bonus. Beyond the $100 deposit match you’ll get, Underdog is offering a a FREE SQUARE for Scottie Scheffler Thursday at The Masters: 0.5 strokes over under. I get Scottie’s good. He’s not that good to hit the under. Everyone will get that one. But, people who signed up with code “MAYO” will receive a second free square of Jordan Spieth 0.5 strokes on Thursday as well. A little more incentive to come over to Underdog and test the waters. Plus, there’s also the Major Drafts with $50K up top. Which laos happen to be an incredible amount of fun.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
BETS
VALERO TEXAS OPEN
Hideki Matsuyama 25/1 — Deki’s T15 a year ago was 15 spots better than the T30 from his debut at the Oaks course. Shave off another 15 spots or so and we got ourself a winner. But seriously, whatever issue Matsuyama had with his driver a year has vanished which has led to three consecutive Top 10s, all in elevated events where he now sits Top 10 in driving, approach and short game over the past 12 rounds. In that span, he’s averaging 0.33 strokes more than the next closest player in the field T2G per round.
WATCH: Valero Texas Open Final Bets, Weather, One and Done Debate
Harris English — No one thing sticks out about English’s recent play outside of consistency. After some irons struggles to begin 2024, he’s now gained in three straight. All elevated events. He’s gained at least 1.5 off the tee in six of eight starts, around the green in six straight and on the greens in three of four. While the field is stronger than normal compared to the past few Texas Open’s English’s steady hand is exactly the type of effort which can knock of the favorites in San Antonio.
Russell Henley 55/1 — three numbers stood out to me Wednesday: Henley 55, Harman 45, and Morikawa 33. I’m a fish so I took the longest odds. These odds seem kinda crazy considering he went off at 45/1 at Sawgrass three weeks ago. He had a bad week. It happens.
Akshay Bhatia 65/1 — Maybe I should just limit Akshay to a Top 20 bet since he’s finished inside the Top 20 every time he’s made the cut this year. I’m choosing to see this as trending to win, though. He’s been rolling it fantastically on these over seed greens lately, and his approach play is finally rising again. After dropping 2.2 strikes in round one at the Valspar, he’s now gained in each of his past seven round. And you never worry about his driver. He hasn’t dropped strokes to the field off the tee since last year’s at Quail Hollow. His chipping has limited his overall upside to date, but if he’s going to win at the Oaks course, it’s because he’s hitting GIRs and no having to worry about that.
Nicolai Hojgaard 90/1 — After a brutal trip to Florida (MC/MC), the Dane get a reset before making his Augusta debut. Prior to heading to the Sunshine State, Hojgaard began to flash his prodigious driver while gaining against the field on approach and on the greens. It’s more a bet on talent than anything, really. His driver has been his bets weapon in 2024, something which ultimately failed him at Valero a year ago. If he can flip his -3.1 SG: OTT performance at the site in 2024, he’ll do much better than T28 this time around.
LIV MIAMI
Dustin Johnson 15/1 — Already picked up a win in Vegas in February, and wouldn’t it be fun if a suddenly trending DJ got himself into the pre-Masters mix just to add more confusion to the top of the board? He’s won at Doral before, and is has flashes of the player he was that year.
Paul Casey 27/1 — In classic Casey fashion, he has a bunch of solid looking results but pees on his leg each time he gets into contention. He should have closed out LIV Hong Kong in the playoff, yet faltered. Then entered the following tournament on the Asian Tour atop of the Round 3 leaderboard, and ended up T6 against an awful lot of scrubs. But you’re just a loser until you win. Hopefully a Doral victory can be a nice consolation prize since he won’t be at Augusta.
MASTERS
Sahith Theegala 60/1 — I only went with a half wager before Houston in the off chance he won and crushed his number. He’s floating around 45/50 right now, but since he didn’t charge the leaderboard at Memorial Park and isn’t playing this week, he’ll drop back into the 60 range (or better for us) when the odds reset Monday morning.
Corey Conners Top 20 all 4 Majors 40/1 (Bet365) — Number seemed too big for someone as consistent T2G as Conners. Pinehurst has a bunch of crappy putters and short game guys at the top in 2014, he’s proven he can handle Augusta, and his game sets up perfectly for recent PGA Championship set ups. Does he have the feel to navigate an Open? Probably not. But at this number I’ll gamble he ends up in aa good wind wave and roll the dice.
UFC Vegas 90
The Dog or Pass crew filmed their show early this week, so actually out in time to include it in the newsletter. Check it.
WATCH: UFC Vegas 90 Picks, Bets, Props | Allen vs Curtis 2 Fight Previews
As a reminder, Me, Geoff, Paul and Cody are all going to be at the Circa hotel in Vegas watching the Masters & UFC 300 at the Stadium Swim Next Saturday. If you’re around, come hang with us.
WEATHER
The PM/AM appears to get the best of it from what I can tell. If you have Tambo and I on the DK Picks show on Wednesday you’ll hear my player pools from each side of the wave.
WIND TOWER: Garden Ridge
Saturday looks windy all day, then there’s expected to be rain over (not much) and clam conditions Sunday for the final round.
TEE TIMES
I targetted the PM wave Thursday for First round leaders. And Taking Bamford’s advice from the Best Bets show, sincce Rory fel into that wave, I took him.
FRLS
Rory 22
Pierceson Coody 190 (+Top 5)
Hoey 225 (+Top 5)
Reavie 225 (+Top 5)
DRAFTKINGS
Tambo and I made a bet of who would be higher owned in the big $20 Hideki vs Rory. I still think’s Hideki.
Watch: Valero Texas Open DraftKings Picks & Lineups
Anyway, my ownership guesses are for most owned are:
Conners
Hideki
Ludvig
Noren
Bhatia
Rory