Valero Bets, DraftKings Ownership
+ Cheatsheets and F1/USFL Projeections
ANCER WD Wednesday Night. Get him OUTTTTT!!!!!
MAJOR SEASON ONE AND DONE
There’s a NEWWWWWW One and Done starting at The Masters — $100 to join; $10K to first place. It ends at the Open Championship in July. You can have multiple entries, SOOOOOO, go get one now, then try to win a free entry from me. To get in draw.
Sub to this newsletter…
And leave a 5-Star review for The PME Podcast on Apple or Spotify.
And that’s it. Winner announce on Monday’s Masters show with Fienberg.
Like losing cash? Then I have the guys primed to blow it on my betting card
Bryson DeChambeau — Who know how where his game is at right now, but he looked most rusty than injured last week at the match play. Considering he has shorter odds next week in a far more difficult event, may as well take the gamble on talent at a course with matches his skills.
Gary Woodland — The shine has come off of Woodland since his consecutive T5s to kick off the Florida swing, but his T21 at the Valspar was actually closer to what we want to see from Woodland moving forward. He gained over four strokes on approach and over two from the green side. Get the driving back to normal levels, make a few putts and he can most definitely improve on his T6 at this venue from a year ago.
Luke List — The form has tapered off a tad since his breakthrough win at Torrey Pines, but it’s not like it’s been a disaster either. The irons finally went away at Riviera, marking the first time he’d lost strokes on approach since last year’s playoffs. But he quickly got that back at API the following week, gaining almost three strokes in just two rounds. He WD’d from THE PLAYERS after getting stuck in the awful weather draw and was OK in a tough group at the Match Play. The issue has been the return of the horrendous flat stick. He’s averaging -1.875 SG: PUTT per round in his past eight measured rounds. That’s bad, even for Luke List. Still, his price has completely bottomed out along with it. If you follow the fantastic Tee to Green numbers and pray for a lucky week on the greens, he can most definitely take down another victory at an excellent course for his skill set.
BTW, If you’re reading this on a Wednesday, NOW is the time to get the two-for-one, Wednesday-to-Wednesday, deal at Fantasy National for all your golf tools and research needs. Use code MAYO and get yourself 20% OFF all memberships, but if youo want the weekly membershp to test it out, it’s just $8 with the MAYO discount.
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Driving Distance Gained
Par 5s Gained
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
2022 VALERO CONTENT HUB
Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks)
Greens: Champion Bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis and velvet Bentgrass
2021: Jordan Spieth -18
2019: Corey Conners -20
2018: Andrew Landry -17
2017: Kevin Chappell -12
2016: Charley Hoffman -12
2015: Jimmy Walker -11
It looks like DraftKings is offering DFS contests for the USFL. I realize that likely isn’t exciting, but you need to understand, these jabroni leagues are where you can make some serious money. We’ve been anticipate this coming at Run The Sims, and since Justin used the XFL as a printing press, he has projections for DFS and player props good to go.
Obviously, Week 1 is a lot of educated guess work, but once there are actual games, the optimizer and projections get more and more precise every week. There’s an early bird price available NOW. Get it before you see GPP winning screenshots and then pay $100 for it.
EXTRA GOLF CONTENT
Per usual, Tambo has compiled his favorite reads and stats he’s come across this week for the Valero, and then shared it with everyone. Remember to follow him.
Also, at Run The Sims, we’ve developed projections based off race simulations. I don’t really know exactly how that’s done (not my scene) but so far they’ve been amazingly profitable.
My co-founder at the site, the one who creates the projections, has alreayd cashed in on DraftKings with the F1 projections….
and the best part… ALL F1 projections are FREEEEE at Run The Sims right now. Just sign up for a FREE ACCOUNT and they’re all yours. I believe they gte poplated after qualification.
Valero Galaxy Brain: Getting Creative
With plenty of the field focusing on Augusta next week, there’s money to be won this week. The course this week is a little unique: work off the tee is going to be more influential than most. That’s not to say SG:APP doesn’t matter, it just matters a little less than normal in comparison to other metrics … so let’s chase that narrative.
As I mentioned in my DK article this week, strokes gained off-the-tee and opportunities gained are a pair of stats that are more correlated to success here than at other courses. Using Fantasy National, I can look at a rolling report to quickly find out who is trending in the right direction in those categories. Easy. But anyone can do that. You come to the newsletter for that little extra edge and I have that for you. What if you wanted to see who was moving in the right direction in BOTH of those stats?
Well, only two golfers in the field have improved their rank in both SG: OTT and Opps in everything but the smallest of samples on the rolling report. That is, they improved their field rank in those metrics from their past 100 rounds to their past 50, their past 50 to their past 24 and their past 24 to their past 12. Basically … they are peaking in the two stats that are most influential at this spot. Seems good, right?
Now, it certainly helps that neither of these players was all that good in either metric to begin with, thus making consistent improvement a bit easier, but the overall point remains. If you want to go to the very top of the board, Rory McIlroy has showed well in both of these stats, so that’s an option if you want it. I’ve talked myself into betting Tony Finau already, so he’s locked in. As for the rest of the lineup? There were six players who just narrowly missed the cut in the above study:
Si WOO Kim ($9,600)
Chris Kirk ($9,400)
Matthew NeSmith ($7,100)
Nasty Nate Lashley ($6,900)
Luke Donald ($6,500)
Kelly Kraft ($6,000)
This lineup disgusts me.
Is it a work of art? I’ll get back to you on that Sunday, but in the interest of telling a story and trying to find players on a similar trajectory, it does that. What’s the downside here? Throw something like this in a small buy-in GPP this week: maybe the narrative sticks and you’re free rolling the Masters. If not, what’s the damage? It’s a small play against what might be limited competition as DFS casuals have their eyes on the big Masters prize.
Or maybe invest a little in this Galaxy Brained golf lineup and try to recover (if need be) with the Final Four. Here are the Mayo Media Network Numbers for Saturday’s action and how they compare to DraftKings Sportsbook’s current numbers: we like both favorites ATS. If the spread scares you (all Villanova seems to do is play close games due to their style and the UNC/Duke rivalry has a wide range of outcomes), parlaying both favorites together moneyline is currently +130.
Beginning next week, MMN is proud to announce JOCK MKT is coming on board as the title sponsor for the daily Fantasy Baseball show. If you’re unfamiliar with the JOCK MKT game, it’s really easy. You buy the players as stocks and their value increases or decreases based on performance. Simple stuff. And since they’re join MMN, they’ve put out a Masters offer of its golf game too. Plus, if you use code “MMN” you’ll get a deposit match up to $100. Highly recommend giving it a try.
Here’s the Masters Raffle on the site…
Valero DraftKings Ownership
I’ll be giving away over $1000 in tickets and merch for Masters week, so here’s a heads upThe PME show schedule
FRIDAY: Masters Research with Justin Ray
SATURDAY: Masters DK Milly Maker Picks with Tambo & Rasa
SUNDAY: MASTERS Write Up
MONDAY: Bets with Fienberg
TUESDAY: Player by Player Breakdown with Rick
WEDNESDAY (12pm ET): Final Bets, DK ownership & Live Chat with Tambo