US OPEN CONTENT
Bets and One & Done
DraftKings Milly Maker Picks
Research & Stats
Write Up - Picks, Course, Field
Player-by-Player Profiles
Golf Digest Picks
DraftKings Picks Cheatsheet
Live Chat (Wed at 12pm ET on MMN YouTube. Set reminder NOW)
Monday newsletter with US Open trends
CASH GIVEAWAYS; LAST DAY TO ENTER
I’ll be giving away $1000 from now til Wednesday and I’m sure you’ll want a piece of the action.
All you need to do is leave a 5-Star Reviews on The PME & MIX podcasts and leave your Twitter Handle or Email so I can contact you. Should take about 48 seconds to do both. Here are the links…
PME: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
The MIX: http://bit.ly/DFSMixApple
I’m giving away 50 Milly Maker Tix here too...
I don’t actually pick the winners as an FYI. DK does.
Other than that, if you want some cash to play around with at different sites, email thepatmayoexperience@gmail.com with “FREE MONEY” in the subject line to see if it’s available where you live. And please, I know it gets annoying (trust me), but the more you can share the shows, articles and podcasts around during a Major week is so helpful to us expanding the show. So, DO IT!!!!!
You can start by sharing this post…
and then subscribing (if you haven’t already)
Now on to the good stuff.
FARMERS NOTES
Obviously, Torrey Pines is going to be a lot different for the US Open than it normally plays for the Farmers Insurance Open, but I wanted to take a look back at some of the winners’ lead in form to see if that can reveal anything about this week. If not, at least it’s something to scroll through while you’re having a shit or something. I won’t guarantee it’s better than some list you found on Facebook, though. Some of those aren’t bad, and very scrollable.
All Stats from Fantasy National btw. If you’re not a member, what are you even doing at this point, trying to be actively bad? Here, this link will get you 20% Off. Enjoy.
2021 – Around the green wasn't critical (four of the Top 9 actually lost strokes in that regard), but approach as a whole was a must-have (8 of the 9 gained over 2 strokes).
2020 – Four of the Top 5 finishers lost strokes off the tee: 14 of the top-15 finishers gained GIRs.
2019 - Focus on the Par 5's more than the Par 3's. 18 of the top-19 finishers gained strokes on the 5's while four of the Top 7 finishers actually lost strokes on the 3's.
2018 – Four of the Top 5 finishers lost strokes around the green.
2017 – 7 of the Top 8 finishers gained at least 2.4 GIRs on the field (Charles Howell finished T-2 and was the lone exception … thanks to +7.1 SG:P).
2016 - Four of the Top 5 finishers lost strokes off the tee, but they all picked up over 1.5 strokes on approach.
Well, that wasn’t super instructive. Or….
Winners at the Farmers haven’t simply found form that week, there was some signs pointing in their direction and, more often than not, it was with in Approach or Putting.
Here’s a very general guide line to this field if we’re to include the Farmers’ takeaways. Am I stretching? Of course, I need to fill this fucking thing somehow.
Daniel (how’s your) Berger:
Gained on Approach in 7 straight measured events (average over his past 5: +3.9).
Missed the cut in each of his past 3 trips to the Farmers however.
Rory McIlroy
Picked up over 4 strokes on Approach in 3 straight
Last 3 Farmers’: 16th, 3rd and 5th
Viktor Hovland:
Gained at least 2 strokes in APP and P in 3 of his past 4. The issue?
A career worst -5.2 strokes putting the last time we saw him (Memorial).
Gained over 4 strokes in APP and P in January at the Farmers (finished 2nd)
Paul Casey:
Coming off of the 4th best SG:APP week of his career (+8.1 at PGA Championship)
Louis Oosthuizen:
Gained +4.1 strokes putting per measured event in 2021.
The 4th best putting measured performance of his career came in January at Farmers (+7). And that’s only with three rounds of measured data from the South Course.
Last 5 tournaments in SG: PUTT: +3.5 | Last 10: +3.3 | Last 20: +2.1
Last 5 tournaments in SG: APP: +2.7 | Last 10: +0.7 | Last 20: +0.4
Jason Kokrak:
Between APP and PUTT, he’s gained an average of 7.1 strokes over his past 4 measured events (+10.7 in his win at Charles Schwab).
Stewart Cink:
gained 1.9 strokes on APP at Memorial and it was by far his worst effort in the category of late (four tournaments prior, average: +6.2)
Football/FOOTBALL
NEW AFC West Team and Player Previews is dropping Thursday morning publicly, but it’s actually already done. You can watch it here if you need to kill time.
Or catch up on…
NFC East youtu.be/x4VoP3nHT1Q
AFC East youtu.be/2qmtRTEmKD4
NFC West youtu.be/BGwBUMoGCyE
Julio Jones Trade youtu.be/T5Xvn5rSYqU
And, of course, tomorrow’s EURO GAMES
But you can get first access to Thursday’s bets here too, if you want them.
Remember to support the EURO show with likes and shares and the rets of that shit.
2008 US OPEN
I’ve spoken a bunch this week about how the US Open simply plays differently than it did a decade ago because of the massive advantage distance now gives the field. But I’m so consistently wrong about so many things there’s a good chance I’m off on this to. So, what kind of players actually did well at the 2008 US Open?
Tiger just didn’t play enough at that point to qualify for the stats and the Euros played primarily in Europe (shocking) and didn’t have enough PGA starts to make the rankings. In case you wondering why they didn’t qualify. Look at those similar profiles for this year. What a way to lose money.
INDOOR GOLF
I highly recommend, if you’re in Colorado, to check XGolf. If you book a time at https://xgolfdtc.com/ and leave “MAYO” in the comment section, you’ll get a free hour on top of your first hour purchased.
With 3 locations in Colorado XGolf provides the most accurate fun way to play golf at anytime of the day and anytime of the year all inside. Play one of 45 different courses including Pebble Beach, Oakmont, Kapalua, Bay Hill, PGA National and more. You can play for fun or play in a league or tournament.
If you ever just want an awesome place to sit and watch the final round of Torrey Pines while playing Pebble Beach make your reservation now for Sunday! With the most accurate simulators on the market, and equipped with a full bar and food options available, you never need to wait for the cart person to come around!
WIND
On a Tuesday evening, the weather for the week looks optimal for golf. Keep checking in with the Windfinder tower the closer we get to lock.
WINNER
I just thought this was awesome.
OWNERSHIP
Everything is starting to become clear at the high end. Spieth & Thomas are coming in well behind the studs on DraftKings, while a lot ownership is congregating in the low $9Ks. If you’re looking for a legitimate pivot play, it’s definitely Hideki. Unlikely to crack double-digits, probably closer to 5% than 10% by the time the event starts, and actually rates out really well…
The driving and irons have been among the best in golf for three months…
Not great, yet respectable record at Torrey…
And actually putts like he’s not trying to be the worst player on earth on Poa…
Will I get there? Maybe. I had this entire range faded already, but I may turn some Will Z and Scheffler shares into Hideki is this downward trends keeps up Wednesday evening.
Oh, Casey, Lowry, Kokrak, and Higgo are the chalk of the $7K range at the moment.
Steele and Vegas appear to be the most popular options in the $6s. Neither look like they’re garnering enough interest to scare people off tho. They’re currently projected in the 5-7% range.
BETS
Nothing changed since yesterday. Still mulling over the final card
Brooks 18 and Lowry 80
+ BOMBS
Woodland 125
Wallace 150 (with Top 8 each way)
Palmer 250 (with Top 5 each way)
Young 300 (with Top 8 each way)
Pendirth 500 (with Top 8 each way)
W. Clark 750 (with Top 8 each way)
— PM