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US OPEN MONDAY
USGA Trends, Pin Placements, $$$ Giveaways, Secret Content
US OPEN CONTENT
I’ll be giving away $1000 from now til Wednesday and I’m sure you’ll want a piece of the action.
All you need to do is leave a 5-Star Reviews on The PME & MIX podcasts and leave your Twitter Handle or Email so I can contact you. Should take about 48 seconds to do both. Here are the links…
Plus, there will be a Twitter giveaway starting Tuesday @ThePME, so follow over there too. That should drop around Noon ET… I’m hoping.
Other than that, if you want some cash to play around with at different sites, email email@example.com with “FREE MONEY” in the subject line to see if it’s available where you live. And please, I know it gets annoying (trust me), but the more you can share the shows, articles and podcasts around during a Major week is so helpful to us expanding the show. So, DO IT!!!!!
You can start by sharing this post…
and then subscribing (if you haven’t already)
Now on to the good stuff.
US OPEN FORM
The result you see is from their last tournament before the US OPEN
2020 - Bryson DeChambeau
22nd – gained OTT in 19 straight entering the US Open (gained +5.3 at the US Open)
2019 - Gary Woodland
52nd – Spike putting week at the US Open (+7.2) came out of nowhere (previous 5 tournaments, cumulative: -11.7)
2018 - Brooks Koepka
30th – The putter was running hot (+1.7 or better in 4 straight entering the US Open)
2017 - Brooks Koepka
37th – He had gained off the tee in 7 straight prior to the US Open
2016 - Dustin Johnson
5th – Running pure everywhere (top-15 in 7 of previous 8). Over 7 strokes gained cumulative between OTT and APP in 4 straight prior
2015 - Jordan Spieth
3rd – Previous 3 tournaments, he averaged +4.5 strokes APP.
2014 - Martin Kaymer
29th – Previous 3 tournaments, he averaged +5 strokes APP
2013 - Justin Rose
8th – He had gained at least 3 strokes APP in 7 of his previous 8
2012 - Webb Simpson
MC – Out of nowhere. Missed previous 2 cuts and was top-35 in 2 of previous 7 tournaments
Winners used to have elite form (2013-2016) but lately (2017-20), OTT over results has been more telling.
Bryson: +2.6 average in previous 3 OTT (zoom out to past 8 for even more form: +3.6)
Woodland: +1.0 average in previous 3 OTT (but zoom out to previous 8 and the form is clear: +2.9)
Brooks 2018: +4.2 average in previous 3 OTT
Brooks 2017: +2.5 average in previous 3 OTT
Using Fantasy National, here are the best players Off The Tee in the short term
Unlike in December, Torrey Pines will play as a Par 71 for the US Open with No. 6 being converted to a Par 4 from a Par 5. Here are the pin locations from the 2008 US Open at Torrey Pines…
Don’t forget we have daily breakdowns of every EURO 2020 match on Mayo Media Network. Short ones too! So it doesn’t take up too much of your time. Sub to the playlist of videos here.
Here is Tuesday’s breakdown
Or, you can sub to the podcast versions
The Euro Golf Picks and bets show for the US Open with Sky and Tom is on that Audio Podcast feed as well. So SUB, OK?
Sky passed along the long drivers from the EURO TOUR in the field at the US Open as a gift to you, the glorious newsletter reader. It’s adjusted for the field btw
The evolution of scouting reports/experience? Over the past two US Opens, 65% of players that cashed top-10 pay checks shot their best round (including ties) on Thursday. That (could) result in boosting the players with course/US Open history … in the 5 US Opens prior, that rate was 26%.
2021: Of the top-12 finishers, 8 of them shot their best round on Thursday (or tied for their best round)
2019: Of the top-11 finishers, 7 of them shot their best round on Thursday (or tied for their best round)
2018: Of the top-10 finishers, 0 of them shot their best round on Thursday (or tied for their best round)
2017: Of the top-11 finishers, 5 of them shot their best round on Thursday (or tied for their best round)
2016: Of the top-11 finishers, 3 of them shot their best round on Thursday (or tied for their best round)
2015: Of the top-11 finishers, 3 of them shot their best round on Thursday (or tied for their best round)
2014: Of the top-11 finishers, 3 of them shot their best round on Thursday (or tied for their best round)
Scoring Relative To Par is almost always labeled as “Difficult” at the US Open and was at the Farmers Open in January. Here is a look at Difficult vs Average/Easy scoring ranks in terms of DraftKings points. This is over their past 24 rounds in each condition. The 10 that see their field rank improve by the most in difficult scoring events:
And the players who see almost no change…
Want a Scott Fish Bowl spot? Here’s your chance.
Approach, Approach, Approach
The past 2 US Open’s have had SG data
1-2 finishers in September finished 1st and 4th in SG:APP for the week
SG:P: 19th and 33rd
1-2 finishers in 2019 finished 2nd and 4th in SG:APP for the week
SG:P: 4th and 65th
The other common trait, BOMBERS!!!!!
In 2020, here are the finishes for players that ranked top-14 in driving distance that DID NOT gain GIRs: 23rd, 23rd, MC, MC, MC (the MC’s: Ryan Fox, Cameron Champ and Sergio Garcia)
The 8 distance guys that DID gain GIRs: 1st, 2nd, 6th, 8th, 17th, 17th, 23rd, MC (Davis Riley, but you weren’t playing/betting him anyway).
As an experiment, I build a model using Fantasy National (You can too, and get 20% OFF!!!!) with just these stats…
The results over the last 50 Rounds
And here’s the rolling repot, sorted by the last 12 Rounds
When Ben and I got to the end the US Open DraftKings picks show on Saturday, we constructed our “Play the Best Plays" lineup. Here it is…
It’s funny that we identified these guys as the best plays and there’s a chance I’ll only be using two of them in my builds this week. This is likely why I lose most of the time, I suppose.
Here’s how the lineup has evolved from Saturday to Tonight after I chatted with Rick.
the bones are pretty similar. Rick really likes Steele (as did Rasa), and I’m sure he’s not alone. Steele looks to be the best and safest value play from the mid-6000s, but since it’s me, of course I like Pendrith, Young, and Clark better.
Still wavering between Bryson and Rory for my last Top spot. Head and gut say Bryson, the odds with a 2 at the beginning say Rory. I’ll figure it out by the live chat on Wednesday. But, so far I have money on
Brooks 18 and Lowry 80
Wallace 150 (with Top 8 each way)
Palmer 250 (with Top 5 each way)
Young 300 (with Top 8 each way)
Pendirth 500 (with Top 8 each way)
W. Clark 750 (with Top 8 each way)
The three super long shots are really just to buy out better Top 10 odds. For example Pendrith is 33/1 to Top 10 or 100/1 to Top 8 if I just each way the outright. Felt like better value. I also took Pendrith as Top Canadian 8/1 on CoolBet.