US OPEN CHEATSHEET: Bets, Weather, Underdog, DraftKings Notes
QUICK PICKS
Bryson +1000
Keegan +7000 (8 Places)
Straka +8000
Gerard +20000 (8 Places)
FIRST ROUND LEADER
Gerard +11000 (5 Places)
Cauley +11000 (5 Places)
Glover +12500 (5 Places)
Bridgeman +14000 (5 Places)
Pavon +16000 (5 Places)
SPECIALS
Hicks Top Senior +1400
Pavon Top French +150
McCarty Top Lefty +475
No Hole in One -160
MAKE/MISS CUT PARLAY
Clark/Perez MISS + Bridgeman/Grillo MAKE = +1610
HOT LINKS
DraftKings Picks & Lineups | Final Bets, Weather, One & Done Picks, Rd1 Underdog Picks
Best Bets | First Round Leader Picks, Make/Miss Cut Parlay & Outright Winners
US Open Golf Picks, Bets, One & Done, MOST CURSED
US Open Golf Picks, Research, Sleepers, Course Preview, Stat Rankings
PICKS
Bryson DeChambeau +1000 — A lot of this will come down to the tough. If Bryson can miss in enough places that will still give him an opportunity to hold the greens from the thick grass (or he simply misses into walked-on areas from the crowd) he’ll be perfect for a course in which even par could be a winning score. Too many times at Quail Hollow Bryson was in the perfect position only to leave a wedge 40-feet from the pin and two-putt. While that didn’t work at the PGA Championship it will be plenty good for Oakmont. That, or he pulls a Dustin from 2016 and simply dials in his accuracy and no one catches him.
Sepp Straka +8000 — Scanning the leaderboard from the 2016 US Open, after Dustin, you’ll see a line of shorter, accuracy players who smack great irons and can get hot putting from time-to-time. Sepp is one of the TOURs most accurate players, he’s second to Scheffler in SG: APP per round in 2025, and has gained five or more strokes on the green in three of his past eight starts, including two of his past three. Plus, he just won in Pennsylvania a month ago.
Keegan Bradley +7000 & Ryan Gerard +20000 (Both 8 Places) — Scottie Scheffler, JJ Spaun, Ryan Gerard & Keegan Bradley are the only four players rating inside the Top 50 of both distance and accuracy over the past 24 rounds entering the US Open. So, if I don’t want to play for Scottie, let’s try to find Temu Scottie and hope it’s a passable knock off for four days. If not, just pray it’s good enough for a Top 8 finish.
Justin Hicks Top Senior +1400 — Look, this is essentially a 72-hole 3-ball between Hicks, Phil, and Bland. And I understand Hicks is the worst of the bunch, this just seems like a crazy big number at a course which is expected to eat everyone alive. Bland is rightfully the favorite in this market but weirdly, Hicks may be one of the few players in the field who actually more accurate. It’s not like Hicks has to play well to win this either. He can miss the cut and still finish ahead of both the other olds.
McCarty Top Lefty +475 —McCarty has been quite solid since his struggles early in the season. It’s not like he’s even a lock to make the cut, but if he makes the cut he’s been doing some damage. He’s posted five Top 20 finishes in his past eight starts including at the PLAYERS and Masters and has become one of the more reliable players in all four key SG categories. And frankly, when I’m scouring the bottom of the board this week, I’m actually leaning the more accurate drivers/reliable putters over bombers. Bombers will have an easier path to win, but McCarty doesn’t need to sniff winning the US Open to win in this market. He just needs to avoid the blow ups.
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On the bets bets show this week, I asked Byron how to get money down on Scheffler at a reasonable cost. The outright number isn’t appealing, a Top 10 is -300 which isn’t very fun, but he did find a +150 for Scheffler to be Top 10 after Round 1. That’s the one. It’s less than half his overall winning odds and he’s been the most consistent first round player in golf over rte past 18 months. Hell, he was inside the Top 10 at Oakmont after round one in 2016 as an amateur. I decided to use that as a part of a Rd1 Underdog entry.
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Betsperts Golf even jumped in to back up Byron on his take…
FULL SCOTTIE RD1 DATA SET
WEATHER
Thursday looks the ultimate golf day: Mid-80s with no wind. It’s not big man golf, but it’s what I’d prefer. Then, it starts becoming a crapshoot with the rain. Looks like there’s some later Friday but likely not enough to impact play. Saturday and Sunday have gone back and forth all week, currently showing enough to potentially delay play for periods, or at least soften up the course a bit. I’m not going to change up by strategy in picks or lineup building, but if you wanted to go even more overweight on bombers, more rain would likely make that a decent idea.
WIND TOWER: OAKMONT
In case you’re wondering who hits the ball the farthest, our friends at the Rabbit Hole have that covered for you. NOTE: Some LIV guys are somewhat inflated because of limited rounds.
CABOT DREAM GOLF GIVEAWAY
Coolbet is giving away a trip to go play at the Cabot Courses in October. These are the two of the world’s best courses, and I can tell you that first hand since I make the trek to go play them every year. All you need to do is OPT IN to the giveaway and go. It’s a bucket list trip. I live three hours away and it never disappoints. (code: Sports200 if you don’t yet have an account. That’ll get you bonus cash). I also have a Bryson boost to +1000 under their “exclusives” tab if you’re looking for a better number. Here’s the catch: Coolbert is only available to Canadians outside Ontario.
OPT- IN TO THE COOLBET CABOT GIVEAWAY
DRAFTKINGS
Scottie, Bryson, and Rahm are going to suck up most the ownership at the very top end. Lowry and Straka in the middle, then Keegan, Conners, and Harris English from a little lower. As for overall ownership in the big $25, I’d expect Scottie and Bryson to be pretty close, but the combo of Scottie/Straka/English will be everywhere. It just fits too easy.
DK Player Sentiment powered by FantasyNational.com
You can use all these guys if you like, but I certainly wouldn’t use them all together. After talking through strategy with Tambo on Wednesday, I’m good with eating the ownership for the elite guys and full fading everyone else. You can hear us deep dive this here:
WATCH/LISTEN: US Open 2025 DraftKings Picks & Lineups
I built 10 lineups on the show and I made another 30 afterwards. I used a similar strategy for both sets. In one, I locked Bryson in every lineup and randomly assigned him with two of Rory, Xander, Rahm, Morikawa, and Fleetwood with a mix of three duds I like in the lower prices. For there second set, I locked Bryson again, but with Scottie and kept the same duds at the bottom. This time there would have to be four of them.
These are the nine duds I rolled through these lineups. I’m praying 5/6 make the cut and I’m rolling.
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
Good Luck. See you Friday for US OPEN CUT SWEAT LIVE!!!!!!