US OPEN FREE MONEY
I’m giving away $500 in COLD HARD CASH along with a comped annual membership to Fantasy National (You need to be a member at Fantasy National already to win those tho. Here, have 20% OFF) Even if you done the reviews before, top it up and bump your name to the top of the list. ANDDDDDDDd if we get 200 new Apple Podcast Subs and reviews, I’ll chuck some more money in the pot to giveaway. He’s how you get your name in the draw:
15 Ballots — Subscribe PME Podcast on Apple or Spotify, leave a 5-Star Review, include your email or twitter handle in the review and you’re good.
Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
If you can’t leave a review on Spotify, just sub, rate 5 stars and screen shot me the evidence on Twitter at @ThePME.
8 Ballots — Sub to this newsletter. It’s FREE.
3 Ballots — Subscribe to Mayo Media Network on Youtube. Easy Stuff
Mayo Media Network: https://bit.ly/YTMMN
1 Ballot — RT any PME Masters posts on Twitter or share on other social networks.
BETTING CARD
Eveything will be finalized Wednesday (IN THIS VERY NEWSLETTER, so sub), but I don’t see too much changing now that I’ve bet Rahm at a site that doesn’t allow a cash out. I’m pot committed.
Jon Rahm — While all the attention goes to Scottie Scheffler for being better than 2000 Tiger Woods Tee-to-Green but not being able to make a putt, Rahm was the slightly lesser version of that at The Memorial. The Masters champ gained 11.4 strokes between driving and approach and dropped over five with his putter. The difference being, Rahm has been consistently great on the greens in his career, whereas the missed short putts have become commonplace for Iron Scheff. Between Scheffler, Brooks, Hovland, and the struggles of Rory, Rahm seems to be entering the U.S. Open devoid of any attention. But the truth is, he’s won four times already in 2023, has gained over 8.8 strokes on approach in four of his past seven starts, has lost strokes twice off the tee since 2019, and has actually gained at least 3.6 strokes on the field in eight of his past 14 events. Plus, he’s been absolutely dominant in the State of California in his career.
WATCH: US OPEN PICKS, BETS, ONE & DONE
Cameron Smith — Of note: Cam Smith hasn’t finished outside the Top 10 of any event since The Masters. Now, LIV events only have 48 players, but that’s still remarkable consistency. I’ll die by the claim (I won’t actually) once you get off the tee box Cam is the best player in the world. It’s truely unfortunetae for Cam driving is such an important part of the game, especially at the US Open. However, if he’s able to be around average with the driver on these wide fairways, he’s shown remarkable consistency on and around the greens, and his best performances have come at courses with similarly angled fairways — Augusta, Kapalua, St. Andrews.
Joaquin Niemann — The U.S. Open always felt like it would be the best fit for Niemann’s game. His low ball flight allows him to really take advantage of the firm and fast conditions, and this particular location at LACC may be a perfect storm for his skills. Bentgrass is the only green type he is gaining strokes on for his career, Los Angeles is the site of his biggest career win at Riviera, his game actually excels the more difficult the conditions and rough, and a ton of his career-best performances have come at venues with wildly uneven lies like Kapalua, Muirfield Village, and Augusta National.
BEST BETS
As is the standard during Major weeks, Cam and Rob joined the show to give out the Gold, Silver, and Bronze picks. If you’re someone who love to bet on way too much, I think you’ll feel very seen by Cam at the end of the show when we start talking first round leaders…
WATCH: US Open Best Bet, Special Markets
Gold Picks
Mayo: Cam Smith Top 10 +240
Pizzola: Scottie Scheffler Top 5 +150
Cam: Victor Perez Top French Player +150
Silver Picks
Mayo: Justin Suh Top 30 +350
Pizzola: Paddy Harrington Top Senior +175
Cam: Jon Rahm Top Continential Euro
Bronze Picks
Mayo: Joaquin Niemann Top 20 +260
Pizzola: Si Woo Kim Top Asian +400
Cam: Matt Fitzpatrick Top English Player +260
Field
156 Players | Top 60 & Ties Make The Cut
First Tee: Thursday, June 15
Defending Champion: Matt Fitzpatrick
The toughest test in golf ventures to Hollywood for the first time, with the debut of Los Angeles Country Club as the host location for the national Open.
It’s not the first tournament LACC has ever hosted, however. The LA Open was first contested here in 1926. I tried to dig through that year’s history and find comp leaderboards, but there wasn’t enough steam to power my telegraph. STOP!
For our purposes, the closest thing we have to any players having experience at this location is the 2017 Walker Cup and 2013 Pac-12 Championship. Max Homa fired a course record 61 on the first day of that NCAA event in 2013, en route to a -9 over three rounds. Jon Rahm, Michael Kim, and Patrick Rodgers also competed that year.
The Walker Cup is set up like the Ryder Cup in that it’s all match play, so it can be difficult to decipher who played great simply based on record alone—but it’s a good starting point. Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa were a part of the winning U.S. squad that year with Morikawa going a perfect 4-0. Morikawa was last seen withdrawing from The Memorial Tournament after hitting a few shots on the range prior to the final round because of back spasms. He hasn’t been seen since. Back spasms are a far different story than genuine back problems. Spasms take a few days to go away and then everything is normal until another inciting incident. If that’s all it was, Morikawa should be fine entering play.
Since it’s a major, there are custom cut-line rules—can’t just be a normal event, now. And the U.S. Open is the most daunting from that perspective. Although The Masters only has the top 50 and ties qualifying for the weekend, it’s a limited field of golfers; the U.S. Open has the largest field of the year, maxed at 156 players, and only the top 60 and ties will qualify for rounds three and four. It’s not a given, but the U.S. Open usually sports one of the lowest 6/6 percentages for DraftKings lineups all year. Couple that with the expected lack of birdies and placement points will be far more valuable this week over the standard PGA TOUR tournament. Fortunately, there are 48 players $6,400 and under this week, and only four or five may be considered playable in your lineups, so that takes a bit of the edge off.
Key Stats
SG: Off The Tee
SG: Approach
Proximity 175+ Yards
Bogey Avoidance
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
Course
Course: Los Angeles Country Club
Yardage: 7,421
Par: 70
Greens: Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: 13
Past Winners
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6)
2021: Jon Rahm (-6)
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
2019: Gary Woodland (-13)
2018: Brooks Koepka (+1)
Get full US Open Tournament History at FantasyNational.com
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6)
Event prior: 10th at RBC Canadian Open
Prior U.S. Open: 55th
+5 strokes putting in three of four events prior
+5 strokes T2G in each of the four events prior
2021: Jon Rahm (-6)
Event prior: 8th at PGA
Prior U.S. Open: 23rd
SG:P had improved in consecutive tournaments leading in
+5 strokes T2G in five of seven measured events prior
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
Event prior: 22nd in TOUR Championship
Prior U.S. Open: 35th
Showcased putting upside in the two months prior (downside too, but +4.4 or more strokes putting in four of seven leading in (including two of his three best tournaments with the putter in his career)
Not without downside (lost over four strokes putting in two of three tournaments prior, but the idea is that we saw proof of concept in the short-term)
2019: Gary Woodland (-13)
Event prior: 52nd at Memorial
Prior U.S. Open: 36th
Dominated with the putter (something we could NOT have seen coming: he was a net -11.7 SG:P in his five measured events leading in
Was showing some approach form (+10 SG:App in two events prior after bleeding strokes on approach in three of four)
Did show some short game chops in the three months prior: +5.8 strokes ARG in those 14 measured rounds
2018: Brooks Koepka (+1)
Event prior: 30th at St. Jude
Prior U.S. Open: Won
Gained strokes putting AND around the green in each of the four events prior
2017: Brooks Koepka (-16)
Event prior: 37th at St. Jude
Prior U.S. Open: 13th
+3.8 strokes putting at St. Jude (showed us signs of life, consecutive tournaments of improvement leading in)
Gained ARG in five of six measured lead-in rounds
Course Notes
Many have been searching all week to make apt comparisons to other courses to give us a path to make picks. It’s tough, as LACC has a very distinctive look and has abnormal conditions for the area. It would be easy to simply comp Riviera and Torrey Pines as they are the main California courses. Yet it’s a California much different from any other Southern California course in terms of style and grass type. There are no Kikuya rough or Poa Annua greens at LACC. It is the first U.S. Open since 2005 at Pinehurst to sport Bermuda rough and fairways, and the putting surfaces are actually constructed of Bentgrass.
There are massive elevation changes and slopes, with a lot of shaved run-offs throughout the course. Although the fairways are generous in size, like all U.S. Opens, the USGA will have them playing like concrete to make them difficult to hold without rolling into those run-off areas—and then, the notorious U.S. Open rough.
Those familiar with the course have indicated that because of the slopes in the fairways, this is going to be a very difficult mental test off the tee. Players will need to be able to shape their shots into those slopes to keep them in the fairways to drop to the right side of the short grass to have an angle to the pin. It’s unlikely that bombard gouge alone is going to win the day with the driver.
The rough being Bermuda grass is very important too. While the rough may not be super deep in some spots, the ball can sink deep in the Bermuda and sit down, very difficult to control and very different from other U.S. Opens.
2023 US Open Golf Picks, Research & Course Preview
Plus, there is BARRANCA littered across the course and in play to roll into. If you do a BARRANCA drinking game during the broadcast, you’ll die. Basically, a BARRANCA is a sand and dirt ditch with vegetation, but it looks cool and adds to the aesthetic of the course.
Based on all these elements, the course it sounds the most like is Augusta National, weirdly enough. Obviously, there is limited rough at The Masters, but not having any level-ground approaches is common, as is the ability to think your way around the course to set up the proper approaches. From a lower level, Kapalua, St. Andrews, and TPC Deere Run are all other courses with predominantly uneven approach lies.
The big difference at LACC is going to be the firm conditions, monstrous length on approaches, pesky rough, and wonky greens. The course has very big greens with the exception of No. 7, which is one of the smallest greens ever—but even big greens have “fingers” where they can tuck pins and you might have a long, breaking slick putt to get to it.
No. 7 is the pint-sized Par 3 which will vacillate between 65 and 120 yards depending on the day.
The approach bucket for the week appears to be at both poles in terms of iron. The Par 5s are likely to lay up for most players and land in that range to go along with that mini Par 3. And don’t forget the players who have to hack it out of the rough and need to get up-and-down from 63 yards, that’s a U.S. Open classic.
Approach Buckets from Greg on the research show
“Hard to predict not knowing how much firm/fast the fairways will play from when I did, but I avg about 315-320 off the tee so should be pretty good sense.”
“Certainly a good amount of long irons, 175-200 is going to be the dominant bucket. They will hype up #11 as being 310 yards, but doesn’t actually play that long, downhill downwind and “redan” style designed to bounce it up, really hit about a 250 yard shot when it says 310 on the card.
Caveat – they will likely move around tees a lot for variety in the setup on a day to day basis. #7 and #11 Par 3 will probably play different but still very long and tough, course is defined by its 480-510 yard Par 4s (2, 5, 13, 16, 17, 18). Par 3 15th they may play as short as 75 yards one day and tuck the pin on a super narrow strip of green.”
From a recent Major Championship perspective, Shinnecock Hills and Southern Hills are likely the most similar, but there are enough unique elements to LACC to differentiate it.
DraftKings Notes
Field: 156 players
Cut: Top 60 and Ties after 36 Holes
Lineup Lock: Thursday, June 15
Roster: Six golfers
Salary cap: $50,000
Here’s a look at current ownership trends. I’ve never found the actual number all that important; it’s the clear gaps between high and low to show you how other users are constructing lineups and who they’re leaving out.
GET 20% OFF ALL RESEARCH TOOLS, LINEUP GENERATOR, OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS AND MORE AT FANTASY NATIONAL
This should end up being the key range this week. Yes, me, and everyone else appears to like Hideki. That’s really about it, though. Because every player (except maybe Fitzpatrick, Morikawa, Smith, and Homa; most of those 4 likely still get there however) is going to be over 10% owned, there’s just not enough salary cap space for this range with the way most lineups are being built. If you have an answer to who from this range is going to be the play, let me know, OK? I’m at a loss currently.
WATCH: US OPEN DRAFTKINGS PICKS
Trends
There were nine players to shoot under par at the 2022 U.S. Open. For the 2022 season …
8 gained on the field in 3-putt avoidance in over 57% of rounds (Rory McIlroy was the exception)
7 gained on the field in Par 5 scoring in at least 60% of rounds (Keegan Bradley and Denny McCarthy were the exceptions)
6 gained on the field in approach in over 61% of their rounds
5 gained on the field in distance off the tee in over 79% of rounds
4 gained on the field in bogey avoidance in at least 70% of their rounds
3 gained on the field in opportunities gained in over 71% of their rounds
2 gained on the field in tee-to-green in 75% of their rounds
1 gained on the field in long putting (25+ feet) in over 25% of his rounds
Here’s a handy chart…
And here’s how that looks when all those numbers are put into rankings for all rounds in 2023…
The PGA TOUR moved the PGA TOUR Championship to May in 2019 and ever since that scheduling tweak, that event has been tied to U.S. Open success. Before Gary Woodland won the U.S. Open in 2019, he placed 8th at the PGA TOUR. Bryson DeChambeau won the COVID delayed U.S. Open … he finished fourth at the PGA TOUR that season. Jon Rahm prior to winning the U.S. Open in 2021 came in eighth at the PGA TOUR and last season, Matthew Fitzpatrick cashed a top-five at the PGA TOUR before capturing his first major title. If you need a reminder as to who was at the top of the leaderboard at the PGA TOUR Championship (Oak Hill) all the way back in May …
1. Brooks Koepka (DK odds pre-Memorial: +1200, post-Memorial: +1200)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+850, +750)
2. Viktor Hovland (+2500, +1800)
4. Bryson DeChambeau (+6000, +6000)
4. Cam Davis (+10000, +10000)
4. Kurt Kitayama (+20000, +20000)
7. Sepp Straka (+15000, +15000)
7. Rory McIlroy (+1000, +1400)
If you’re curious, the timing was different, but in 2013, Jason Dufner won the PGA TOUR Championship at Oak Hill less than two months after placing 4th at the U.S. Open.
— PM