PGA CHAMPIONSHIP LIVE CHAT
The LIVEEEEEEE PME Final Picks and Viewer Chat starts at 12pm ET Wednesday. Click this link to set a reminder if you have any Qs you want answered. I’ll be chained to the desk until there are no more left.
Oh, if you’re not a Fantasy National member (weird), now’s the time to get your membership. Use FantasyNational.com/Mayo to get 20% off, get the monthly membership, and you’ll get PGA Championship through the US Open. That’s five PGA events for $24 after the discount. So, less than $5 per week.
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
Here’s the weather tower I found closest to the course. It may not be too helpful however. Here’s a screen shot of the upcoming forecast from 6am ET.
And here it is at 6:15pm ET…
This stuff can change on a dime when you’re situated on the Ocean. All of a sudden the Friday PM wave got dicey. I’m sure by this time tomorrow it will say it’s twice as wind or a third as windy, then change again before tee off. Don’t drive yourself mental with this stuff.
$$$$$$$$
There’s STILL TIME to get into the cash giveaways. Here’s how you earn an entries into the draw. I’ll announce the winners on Wednesday’s LIVE VIEWER CHAT AT 12PM ET on MMN.
Leave a 5 Star Apple Review for The PME audio podcast. (http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes). It takes 30 seconds and is worth 10 entries in to the giveaway draw. Download any available episodes while you’re there too. Juice up those numbers.
Sub to the Mayo Media Network on YouTube (https://bit.ly/YTMMN)
Each social media share of the content is worth an entry into the draw too. So start hitting that RT button
Also, here’s a way to get a shot at one of 20 Milly Maker tix
The ANDERCUSRED PARLAY… To miss the cut
No new bets from me. I’m deciding on the last thing I want to do. I’m still weighing making the plunge on DJ, but, for whatever reason, Webb Simpson has started to look better and better as the week has gone along. I guess I’m a sucker for those with unknown injuries. And I’ll still be playing Bubba, Kuch, and Lowry in some form.
But here’s what I’ve got so far.
Cam Smith 45
Will Z 65
Casey 90
Wallace 125
Si WOOOO 125
Macintyre 150
DRAFTKINGS OWNERSHIP
Rory McIlroy has become the player who everyone just assumed was going to be ultra chalk and is now looking like he’s just going to crack into the double digits. (Justin Thomas too!) There’s always time for the masses to jump back on and inflate the ownership, but the want, hell, the NEEEEEDDDDDD to play two or three of Spieth, Xander, Hovland and Berger is just pushing all other options to the side. And it makes total sense. Even if you jam three of guys into your lineup, it’s not like you need to dumpster diving in the $6K range
This start is going incredibly popular this week. If you’re keen to have a duplicated lineup, check this one out…
I don’t hate it either. That’s usually a problem. Frankly, I’d probably drop from Spieth to Berger, and use that extra $1400 to upgrade Cink and Charl tbh.
Now we’re cookin.
Replace Wallace with Hoffman’s and you enough chalk to facilitate three games worth of LeBron’s scorer’s table stash.
CONTENT
DraftKings Milly Maker Picks
PGA Championship Research and Stats
PGA Championship Bets & One and Done
Giant Write Up
Player-by-Player breakdown
The listener’s league is over 5K entries as of this writing, so spots are going to be tough to come by. If you. want a shot at some of that sweet, sweet RAKE FREE 100K on DraftKings, I suggest getting your spot NOWWWWW. The link is always in the description of all the videos and podcasts, per usual.
Random Notes: Past 5 PGA Championships
2020 PGA Championship
Collin Morikawa - Gaining an average of 5.4 strokes on approach in his three tournaments prior was a good sign that he was confident and he had gained with the putter in two of those events (which is a big win for a guy who lost strokes there in six of his seven prior events).
Paul Casey - Form? Who needs form? Runner-up finish this week after going MC (Memorial), MC (3M) and 67th (St. Jude) in his three events prior. Despite the finishes, he did enter the PGA gaining OTT in 23 straight.
Dustin Johnson - Steady play the week prior served as our indicator: over 2 strokes gained in OTT, APP and ARG the week prior at St. Jude.
2019 PGA Championship
Brooks Koepka - This was his 4th win in a 12 month period and he had 6 other occurrences in which he finished top-10. Elite form across the board and it sustained (he's picked up at least 5.9 strokes in approach in 3 straight PGA's).
Dustin Johnson - The putter was running hot (over 3 SG:P in 4 of his past 5) and he had 6 top-10s in his previous 7.
Patrick Cantlay - Don't make it harder than it needs to be … he missed the cut at The Players and Farmers, but those were the only events from October-April in which he didn't cash a top-20.
Jordan Spieth. -The putter was the only club in form entering play. He picked up an averaged of 3.7 strokes putting over his four measured events prior, but had lost OTT, APP and ARG in each of his two tune up events (Byron Nelson and Heritage).
Matt Wallace - He missed the cut at Heritage (his most recent event prior to the PGA) because he was a mess on the green (-7 SG:P), but those two bad rounds shouldn't have scared you off of him (he was gaining 2.4 strokes with the putter in his previous 5 measured events).
2018 PGA Championship
Brooks Koepka - The putting was a mess coming in (-7.8 strokes total in the previous two events), but he was able to replicate his best week of the season in approach that he produced the week prior in a 5th place finish at St. Jude.
Tiger Woods - He was the 10th best putter in the field this week and recent form hinted at that potential: +7.6 strokes putting total over his two measured events prior.
Adam Scott - Sometimes past form means … nothing. He lost 4.4 strokes putting at the 2017 PGA and that started a stretch where he lost strokes putting in 11 of 14 measured events. He then, of course, picked up 3.7 strokes putting, 3rd best among the players that cashed top-10 paychecks this week.
Stewart Cink - He lost on SG:APP in his event prior (Canadian Open), but if you zoomed out, you were willing to overlook that outlier: had gained in 13 straight, including at the time his 3rd best career showing just 2 months prior at St. Jude).
Jon Rahm - The putter was ice cold (total of 11.1 lost strokes in his 3 prior outings), but he was elite OTT (gained in 15 straight, 7 tournaments of +4 SG:OTT or better).
2017 PGA Championship
Justin Thomas - Was coming off of his worst putting tournament of his career at the time (-5.2 SG:P at Bridgestone), but did show elite upside by gaining over 6 strokes on approach in 2 of his previous 4 measured events.
Patrick Reed - Gained over 2 strokes putting in each of the 4 measured tournaments prior (average: +3.8).
Francesco Molinari - Approach game had rounded into form: average of 4.3 SG:APP in the 8 measured tournaments prior.
Louis Oosthuizen - Lost a stroke putting at Bridgestone the week prior, but even including that, he averaged 2.9 SG:P in his 4 measured tournaments prior.
2016 PGA Championship
Jimmy Walker - Approach game had rounded into form: average of 4.0 SG:APP in the 4 measured tournaments prior.
Jason Day - Gained strokes putting in his 11 measured tournaments prior (gained OTT in 7 straight)
Daniel Summerhays - Averaged 2.7 strokes gained putting in his 7 measured tournaments prior
Based on the lead in form and stats that had previously been flashing with, Approach and putting form seem to matter the most. This shouldn’t be surpising, that’s essentially every week. But is the idea of a “hot putter” something we can maybe predict? No idea how sticky it realistically is, but it does show up on multiple occasions at the top of the leaderboard the last 5 years. With that … Leaderboard over the past 24 rounds in SG:APP + SG:P
First Round Leader Notes
2020: Jason Day - Three straight top-7 finishes prior to the PGA after missing four of five cuts prior.
Brendon Todd - He shot a first round 64 the week prior at St. Jude and had his best round come on Thursday in two of his three events prior to the PGA.
2019: Brooks Koepka - His 19.1 SG:Total in this tournament is the 2nd best of his career (2017 US Open, +20.4). In fact, 3 of his top-9 SG:Total rates have come at PGA's.
2018: Gary Woodland - His finishing position hinted that he was in good form. He finished 67th at the Open, 22nd a week later at the Canadian Open and 17th at St. Jude the week leading into the PGA.
2017: Kevin Kisner - The putter had reasonably hot, as he picked up over two strokes with the flat stick in 4 of his previous 5 measured tournaments.
Thorbjorn Olesen - Gained strokes with the putter in each of his 8 measured events prior. He took a piss the rest of the event though, finishing T44 . Wouldn’t be the last time either.
2016: Jimmy Walker -Was coming off of his best SG:Total tournament in over 4 months. I still can’t believe he went wire to wire. I mean, i can, as Jason Day to win was one of the largest bets I’ve ever made on an outright winner in golf.
Turns out, the FRLs at the PGA haven’t been super random, there’s been some serious form for those guys
STATS
I’m really digging all the work PGASpilts 101 is doing for course and event specific numbers to help get in the right direction. This was my favorite from today…
“GRILLOOOOO” — Ben Rasa.
Long Way Down (one last thing)
Not only did Rick and I collaborate on the player profiles this week, we’ll have our picks in the Golf Digest betting column, ANNNNDDDDD we are both guests on The Ringer’s Fairway ROLLLLLLLLINNNNNNNNNN podcast with Joe House and Nate Hubbard as well. Not sure if it’s out Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, but it should be a good listen.
If you didn’t know, Nate is Mark Hubbard’s brother, but more importantly to the conversation I had with him and Matt Wiley last week, he was there at the beginning of Twitter and is the former CEO of both Rivals and Ticketmaster. When you combine that with a Kentucky Entrepreneur Hall of Fame Member (No, not Colonel Sanders, Wiley) you can have a great chat about where the business of golf is heading.
If you missed it, check it out here
— PM