TRAVELERS BETS
Before the bets, THE WDs!!!! Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka are both OUT in Cromwell. This has had a ripple effecct on the mid tier of odds, collapsing the middle range if you missed out no early bets in the market. Plus, it will consolidate ownership on DraftKings at the top end.
And the hits don’t stop there. Late Wednesday night Sungjae WD’d as well.
Obviously, I had bet Sungjae at 35/1 so that bet is voided. I was originally just going to keep the money in the bank, but I’ve been floating around getting in on Leishman all week, so I decided to reallocate some of those Sungjae funds and keep the rest for a weekend bullet, potentially. Or just roll it over into next week.
WATCH: TRAVELERS BETS & WEATHER
Jordan Spieth — The driving is massively improved, and even at the US Open, despite the poor overall showing, the irons were not an issue for him. It’s been his work on the putting surface. And, as we know with Jordan, that can flip at any moment. Already this season at short courses with small greens, Spieth’s won a golf and silver. Keep up the tee to green, find a solid putter, grab a second win of the season. Easy work.
Joel Dahmen — The trend of whose middle of the pack players having an amazing US Open then parlaying it into success outside Hartford is a real thing. Just look at Harris English and Chez Reavie. Many will point to Denny McCarthy in this spot, but the answer is really Joel Dahmen. McCarthy legitimately cannot play any better than he did in Brookline. It was all the putting along with uncharacteristic approach play. Dahmen, kept up his pin point iron play on small greens yet really struggled with the putter. Something that’s never happened to him at TPC River Highlands, gaining strokes with his flat stick in all four of his appearances at the Travelers.
John Huh — Yes, John Huh still plays golf. In fact, he’s playing this week. I’m not entirely sure what has happened to him recently, but he’s playing some sneaky good golf. After benign the wilderness most of the season, the man of many question marks has been a T2G monster the last two event. Between Colonial and Canada he’s gaining +8.9 SG: T2G, while losing an average of over two strokes on the greens. He’s actually lost on the greens in four straight after gaining in six consecutive starts before that. So, it’s there, Huh just needs to unleash it.
CONTENT
DraftKings Picks, Final Bets, Weather + Chat Replay
Bets/One and Done
DK Cheatsheet
Research Show
I’m not entirely sure this is a way to go, but a lot of similar names pop up at the Travelers as they do at the Valspar. Using Fantasy National, I looked at the averages from the past 3 tournaments at Copperhead (no 2020 event) to find all the players averaging over 1 SG:TOTAL per round. Also, beyong the recent results, and fire irons at the US Open, it’s another reason I’m betting Davis Riley this week.
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GALAXY BRAIN: Building From The Bottom Up
We are in the same general area this week as last, but we aren’t expecting similar scoring conditions. Maybe some rain here and there, but the players should be able to hit consecutive good shots this week, something that seemed impossible at Brookline for many. Before we attempt to look into the future, let’s look back at this event in 2021 to see what skills paid the bills …
6 of the top 9 finishers at The Travelers finished the season as top-35 putters on TOUR
Only 3 of those top 9 finished the season inside the top-85 on TOUR in SG:ARG
Brooks Koepka was the only one of those top-9 to finish better than 90th on TOUR in driving distance
4 of the top-9 finishers finished the season top-12 in Fairways gained
OK, so last season would hint at driving accuracy being more critical than distance and putting over around-the-green. Did you know there are only two players that have made the cut at The Travelers in each of the past three seasons that grade out better in fairways than driving distance AND better in putting than around the green game this season. Those names aren’t exactly going to make you comfortable, but I know I’m usually “comfortable” with losing lineups … so maybe we are onto something here.
Troy Merritt ($7,100)
He missed the cut last week (+6 over an 7-hole stretch is bad for business), but he’s gained Off The Tee in 6 of 8 trips to the Travelers
He’s gained with the putter in six straight measured events and, for his career, a hot putter makes him a value machine (he’s finished inside the top-10 17 times and in those events, he’s picked up an average of 5.1 strokes putting)
Hank Lebioda ($6,500)
His all around game is a bit spotty, but he has picked up 9.7 strokes on the field with the flat stick over his past four events. Not a bad trend for a guy that came into this event last season in similar form (+7.1 in his four preceding tournaments) and was the 6th best putter in the field at Hartford to cash a 5thplace finish.
There are four players that have made the cut here in each of the past three seasons that currently grade as top-20 players in this field when it comes to opportunities gained. If this course is going to gettable, being in position is going to be mandatory … not a bonus like it was last week.
Sam Burns ($10,400)
An ugly back 9 on Sunday (5 over during a 6 hole run) might stick in peoples minds, but look at his rolling report and you’ll notice a player VERY much trending in the right direction when it comes to approach and putting … something that should play well if this turns into a birdie-fest
Harold Varner III ($9,000)
Forget the MC last week and instead focus on him generating an average of nearly 4 more opportunities than the field over his past six measured events.
If you’re buying that as sticky, it won’t take much with the putter … he gained just 0.5 strokes at THE PLAYERS on his way to a 6th place finish
Marc Leishman ($8,400)
A Sunday 68 at Brookline was encouraging and so is the fact that he’s gained over 5 strokes putting in two of the past three Travelers.
The off the tee game is a concern, but he’s figured it out at each of his past four trips to Hartford, so if they can sustain along with his recent putting gains, there might be more potential here than meets the eye.
Tom Hoge ($7,400)
It’s been over a month since the last time he made a cut … buying window. His two primary struggle points can be written off rather easily: (1) his around the green game has been rough ever since his runner-up finish at Amex in January, but ARG isn’t as critical here and (2) his recent off the tee struggles (he’s lost in four straight measured events) are something that can be rectified given that he gained in his 10 events prior
Now, if you want to be REALLY different, chuck all six of those guys into a lineup, leave $1,200 on the table and print money. Maybe. Probably not. But if you want to make single pivots for any of those six …
Sam Burns TO Justin Thomas (and room for more upgrades)
Harold Varner III TO Jordan Spieth
Marc Leishman TO Joaquin Niemann
Tom Hoge TO If you save $100 somewhere else, Mito Pereira is the pivot
Troy Merritt TO Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Jason Kokrak on the radar)
Hank Lebioda TO Joel Dahmen (I already bet him, so …)
NFL
Spoke with Justin Herzig about Best Ball strategy and the idea of reverse engineering rosters came up. That is, building a team that is set to peak at the right time (Weeks 15-17, after you advance to the knockout stages). I was curious if the league-winning performances in those money weeks were coming from studs or if they came from guys that were basically off the radar when drafts were occurring that summer. Over the past decade, 10 times has a flex player scored 90+ PPR fantasy points over the final three games of the fantasy season:
WATCH: Best Stacks & Week 17 Coorelation
Some minor exceptions, but on the whole, we are looking at early round picks that spent the first 13 weeks of the season dominating and continuing to do so with your best ball season on the line. Amon-Ra St. Brown (84.9 points in Weeks 15-17 last season, most among all flex players) was a great story last season and put some serious money in your pocket if you made it to the knockout stages with him stashed, but understand that he is the outlier and not the norm. In fact, here are the next four top flex players over those final three weeks of the fantasy season last year … Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Mark Andrews and Ja’Marr Chase. Stars, much like what we’ve seen over time.
The interesting spin? Of those top-10 seasons from above, seven are running backs. BUT … two of the three receiver seasons came very recently and four of the top five scorers last season were WRs. To me, this would support that idea of going WR heavy early. The league continues to move in a direction that favors the pass game, and given that star players have traditionally provided the game-breaker performances down the stretch (not to mention relative health at the WR position compared to RBs), those high volume receivers seem to be the play early on.
In Weeks 15-17 (rank vs WR based on 2021)
CeeDee Lamb: 2 games against bottom-5 defenses vs fantasy WR
Tyreek Hill: NE and BUF allowed the fewest WR points last season: he plays both in this stretch
Keenan Allen: 2 games against bottom-10 defenses vs fantasy WR
Deebo Samuel: 2 games against top-10 defenses vs fantasy WR
2022 NFL CONTENT GUIDE
Stacks & W17 Correlations
2022 Best Ball Strategy
WR Busts + HYPE Players
Intro to Fantasy Football
RB Rookies
WR Rookies
NFL’s Nature vs Nurture: Matchup vs Makeup
… is it the matchup a player faces that results in week winning upside or the makeup of a player?
FREE: Customizable Projections & Draft Tools
QB
27 games with 30+ points
12 came in the first 5 weeks
15 came at home
Over the past decade, 64.6% of QB games with 35+ points came in home games
5 QBs had at least 3 such games (Allen, Herbert, Kyler, Jackson and Mahomes)
3 teams allowed 3 such games (Chiefs, Eagles and Vikings)
Over the past decade, 68.4% of 40-point games have come from a favorite
RB
22 games with 30+ points
15 came in the middle of the season (Weeks 5-12)
11 came at home and on the road
Over the past decade, 22 of the top 37 games have come on the road (59.5%)
2 RBs had 3 such games (Henry and Taylor)
1 team allowed 3 such games (Steelers)
WR
44 games with 30+ points
25 came in the first half of the season (18 in the first 5 weeks)
23 came at home
Over the past decade, 21 of the top 32 WR games have come at home (65.6%)
4 WRs had at least 3 such games (Deebo, Kupp, Hill and Adams)
5 teams allowed 3 such games (Lions, Browns, Titans, Colts and Seahawks)
Over the past decade, 66.1% of 40-point WR games have come when favored
What does this information tell you? Investing in the passing game is the way to go early. It’s a numbers game and those game-breaking weeks are simply more predictable through the air. Here are the top RB fantasy performances over the final month of last season:
- Justin Jackson (Week 16): 34.2 points
- Rashaad Penny (Week 17): 32.5 points
- Joe Mixon (Week 16): 31.5 points
- Najee Harris (Week 17): 29.6 points
- Rex Burkhead (Week 16): 28.9 points
- Austin Ekeler (Week 18): 28.9 points
- Damien Harris (Week 16): 28.3 points
A few names that you would have drafted early, but the majority came from guys that weren’t exactly early draft day targets over the summer. The past decade of data suggests that you not only want members of the pass game (QB/WR), but you also want them favored at playing at home when all the chips are on the table. Here are some teams that line up to (potentially) be in optimal spots for Weeks 15-17 when many Best Ball leagues pay out producers
Chiefs (at HOU, SEA, DEN)
Travis Kelce (DK ADP: 9th)
Patrick Mahomes (31st)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (54th)
Cowboys (at JAX, PHI, at TEN)
CeeDee Lamb (14th)
Dalton Schultz (67th)
Dak Prescott (85th)
Michael Gallup (117th)
Colts (at MIN, LAC, at NYG)
Michael Pittman (33rd)
Matt Ryan (153rd)
Mo Alie-Cox (218th)
It’s obviously early, but how about going heavy on both the Cowboys and Colts pass games? Dallas gets a home date with the Texans to help you offset a late Indy bye week (Week 14), both have the favorable season ending schedule and the Colts have just one iffy weather game over the final two months. Just spit-balling here, but you could start a build something like this if you’re at the turn of a 12-team best ball draft:
QB:
Dak Prescott (Round 8)
Matt Ryan (Round 13)
RB:
De’Andre Swift (Round 1)
David Montgomery (Round 4)
Rashaad Penny (Round 9)
Dameon Pierce (Round 12)
WR:
CeeDee Lamb (Round 2)
Michael Pittman (Round 3)
Brandin Cooks (Round 5)
Elijah Moore (Round 7)
Michael Gallup (Round 10)
Mecole Hardman (Round 11)
TE:
Dalton Schultz (Round 6)
Just a first impression and still work to be done in the later rounds … but you get the idea. It’s one option. One of a million. Food for thought as you begin to get ready for the 2022 season!
If you’re looking for later round investments, these pass games should have your attention:
Jaguars (DAL, at NYJ. At HOU)
o Christian Kirk (DK ADP: 98th)
o Trevor Lawrence (141st)
o Evan Engram (172nd)
o Marvin Jones (176th)
Jets (DET, JAX, at SEA)
o Elijah Moore (80th)
o Garrett Wilson (111th)
o Zach Wilson (155th)
o Corey Davis (159th)
TRAVELERS WEATHER
Not much brewing on the wind front. Looks like a fantastic week from start to finish in lovely Cromwell.
BOOKMARK: CROMWELL WIND TOWER
TIDBITS
Tambo was MIA from the chat today (hope you’re feeling better soon, PAL!!!!!) but he still got off his helpful tidbits, becauses he’s a trooper
DRAFTKINGS OWNERSHIP
UPDATE: Any sort for of depressed ownership you expected on Niemann or Finau is now likely gone with Sungjae pulling out late, but no so late people didn’t notice. Anticipate some of the projected 12-15% Sungjae shares to trickle up to Spieth, but mainly down to Niemann or Finau, or even Keegan. If you’re looking for the 9K pivot plays it’s still Fleetwood, likely HV3, and probably Power. I like Power > HV3 > Fleetwood.
WATCH: Travelers DraftKings Ownership & Pivots
Cantlay
McIlroy
Mito
Spieth
Steele
Keegan
Harman
Dahmen
— PM