Travelers Championship Picks, Bets, Course Preview
QUICK PICKS
Morikawa +2200
Straka +3300
Lowry +4500
BOMBS
Hoge +10000 (8 Places)
Bridgeman +12500 (8 Places)
2025 TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP
Field: 72 Players
Cut: NO CUT
First Tee: Thursday, June 19
Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler
Corey Conners was injured during the 3rd round at the US Open and was forced to withdraw. Conners is still currently listed in the field at TPC River Highlands but keep up to date on his status closer to lock. A definite WD Possibility.
KEY STATS
Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 4s Gained 400-450 yards
Opportunities Gained
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
Another way to look at it. The Travelers has been a wedge and putting joint for years now, so if we assume driving will be somewhat flat (It won’t, but work with me here), it’s scoring clubs and close putting which will propel the leaders. Here’s a putting and wedge model…
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
HOT LINKS
Travelers Picks, Bets, One & Done | US OPEN RECAP, Ryder Cup Teams
Travelers Research, Sleepers, Course Preview, Stat Rankings
PME CUST CORNER LIVE FROM TORONTO OUT ON THURSDAY!!!!
COURSE
Course: TPC River Highlands
Par: 70
Yardage: 6,844
Greens: Bentgrass/Poa
Number of Sand Bunkers: 69
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 5
Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 189 yards
- The two Par 3's on the front 9 are two of the six toughest holes on property
Round 3 was all over the place for Scheffler on the Par 3's (three birdies and a bogey) ... otherwise, he had 11 pars on 12 Par 3’s
Par 4's (12): Average distance - 416 yards
- The three hardest holes on the course are all Par 4's, two coming on the back-9 (#17 has a 5% double-or-worse rate)
Over the weekend, Scheffler had seven birdies against just one bogey on the Par 4’s
Par 5's (2): Average distance - 549 yards
- Both have an eagle rate over 1% and a birdie rate north of 35%
- A bogey, five birdies, and an eagle for Scheffler on these Par 5's in 2024
DK STREAK
Statistically speaking, you're 48.9% more likely to string together three under-par scores when going back-to-front (Holes 18-1-2) than front-to-back (Holes 9-10-11), but don't take that to mean that there is much of an edge. The probability of a streak is well under 1% on both 9's thanks to the easiest holes coming in the middle of each set of 9's (Holes 6-13-15). In going back-to-front, you get access to an easier #2 to complete the streak if you can get through two holes in #18 and #1 that play slightly tougher than course average.
Playing this course in order forces you to birdie #10, something only 11% of the field pulls off (22.2% over-par rate)
PAST WINNERS
2024: Scottie Scheffler (-22, playoff win over Tom Kim)
2023: Keegan Bradley (-23, 3 strokes clear of Zac Blair and Brian Harman)
2022: Xander Schauffele (-19, 2 strokes clear of JT Poston and Sahith Theegala)
2021: Harris English (-13, playoff win over Kramer Hickok)
PAST WINNER NOTES
2024: Scottie Scheffler (+400)
- The top-6 in approach for the week all cashed top-15 paychecks, including each of the top four finishers
- 11 of the top-12 finishers gained strokes on Par 4's in the 400-450 yard range
2023: Keegan Bradley (+8000)
- Bradley was the best on approach AND the best putter for the week, picking up 7+ strokes in both areas
- 11 of the top-12 finishers gained strokes around-the-green
2022: Xander Schauffele (+1600)
- Each of the top-7 finishers gained over 4 strokes with the flat stick (they all gained putting in the 5-10 feet range)
- 8 of the top-12 finishers gained ground on the field in proximity from 100-125 yards
2021: Harris English (+4000)
- Five of the top 6 putters for the week finished with at least a share of 5th place (Brice Garnett finished T-5 ... he gained 13.9 strokes putting and lost everywhere else)
- 11 of the top-12 finishers gained ground on the Par 3's (English was the 8th best for the week on the 3's)
2020: Dustin Johnson (+2000)
-His 61 on Saturday was the round of moving day and you needed a spike round to place in the top four (he had the 61 the same day Streelman had a 63, Mac Hughes opened the tourney with a 60 and Will Gordon posted a 62 on Friday)
-DJ was the fourth bet putter for the week and 10 of the top-14 putters for the week finished T-11 or better when all was said and done (if you gained ANYTHING off the tee and were a top 14 putter, you finished T-11 or better)
DREAM GOLF GIVEAWAY
Coolbet is giving away a trip to go play at the Cabot Courses in October. These are the two of the world’s best courses, and I can tell you that first hand since I make the trek to go play them every year. All you need to do is OPT IN to the giveaway and go. It’s a bucket list trip. I live three hours away and it never disappoints. (code: Sports200 if you don’t yet have an account. That’ll get you bonus cash)
Note: Must have Canadian Address and live outside Ontario to play on Coolbet.
OPT- IN TO THE COOLBET CABOT GIVEAWAY
FIRST ROUND LEADERS
2024 ROUND 1
62 - Tom Kim (Predictive of a great week: 66 or better in all four rounds)
64 - 4-way tie that featured three players (Fowler, Kitayama, and Zalatoris) that shot 69 or worse on Friday
2023 ROUND 1
60 - Denny McCarthy (Predictive of a great week: finished T-7 and was tied with Bradley entering the weekend)
62 - Keegan Bradley (coasted on Sunday after starting the event with 62-63-64) and Adam Scott (up-and-down week: 62-68-65-71)
2022 ROUND 1
62 - JT Poston (followed it up with a 70 on Friday, his only round worse than 67 for the week) and Rory McIlroy (went 70-72 over the next two days)
63 - Xander Schauffele (consecutive 63's to open the week, 67-68 over the weekend) and Martin Laird (Friday was 6 shots worse than Thursday and Sunday 6 worse than Saturday)
2021 ROUND 1
63 - Kramer Hickok (6 shots worse on Friday) and Satoshi Kodaira (his best round of the week by 5 strokes)
64 - Talor Gooch (his best round of the week by 5 strokes)
NOTES
Average fairway widths in landing areas are 30 yards. A new irrigation system was installed in 2023.
TPC River Highlands is the shortest course of the year. Another Pete Dye track, measuring just 6,844 yards, this course boasts eight par 4s measuring between 400-450 yards while playing as a par 70. There are another two par 4s coming in below 400 yards, too. The most notable being No. 15, a drivable, 296-yard hole that over 90% of the field goes for from the tee box.
With its minuscule length, TPC River Highlands opens the door for almost any style of player. That’s how you get Dustin Johnson and Brendon Todd paired together in a final group, as well as Bubba Watson and Chez Reavie winning in consecutive seasons.
Looking back at the Top 5 finishers over the past seven years, it’s clear, regardless of driving distance, approach and putting are the two most important factors at the top of the leaderboard. As is the case for most courses that become birdiefests, SG: OTT has been twice as important as SG: ATG, and players hit almost 70% of fairways at TPC River Highlands against a PGA TOUR average of 62%. So, the big hitters don’t even have to dial back with their drivers. Basically, the golfer who can hit their wedges the closest is going to win.
Looking at the plotting on approach distance (thanks, Fantasy National), you’ll see the plurality of irons come from 175 and in. This is the opposite of most courses.
One thing to consider when looking at past events is the change in greens. For years, the Bentgrass putting surfaces were some of the slowest on the PGA TOUR. Six years ago, they were reconstructed with Bentgrass (mixed with Poa Annua) putting surfaces, and the greens now run on the faster side of things.
While this is a Pete Dye track, there has been a considerable crossover between the top of the leaderboards of the Valspar Championship, Riviera and Phoenix over the years. And it goes beyond Bubba Watson, who has won three times at both Riviera and the TPC River Highlands.
Paul Casey has experienced success at all three. Ditto with Dustin Johnson. Kevin Streelman and Jordan Spieth have won the Valspar and the Travelers in their careers. I’m not entirely sure why, maybe it’s a shot-shaping issue, but there are a lot of players in the field this week who have experienced a lot of success at those three courses but very rarely played at the Travelers Championship.
Current Pete Dye Courses on the PGA TOUR:
TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Championship)
Harbour Town (RBC Heritage)
TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship)
TPC Stadium Course at La Quinta (two rounds at AMEX)
TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic)
Former Tracks
Austin Country Club (WGC Match Play)
Crooked Stick (2012/2016 BMW Championship)
MAJORS
Whistling Straits (2015, 2010, 2004 PGA Championship)
Kiawah Island (2021 PGA Championship)
Here are all the players averaging over 1.0 SG: TOTAL per round over their last 36 on Pete Dye courses
PICKS
Collin Morikawa +2200 — My good friends at Coolbet were very generous with Morikawa’s opening number (They’re still hanging a +2000 as of Monday night if you’re still looking.) Once my favorite player bet on TOUR, I’ve been off Kawa for some time now. But like anyone in recovery, there’s bound to be a relapse or two. And he sucked me back in at the US Open. After floundering with his game after gagging away Bay Hill, Morikawa’s irons returned, BIGLY, at Oakmont. He was best in the field by almost three strokes on approach. He just happened to lose -8.8 on the greens. The last five times he’s lost at least 2.5 strokes in a tournament he’s gained at least 2.7 in his following start.
Sepp Straka +3300 & Shane Lowry +4500 — Their US Opens were about the same. Both gained significantly off the tee and on approach in their limited time at Oakmont and were complete disasters on and around the greens. Lowry isn’t usually brutal from green side and should get back to normal at an easier venue, and Straka’s putting was almost 9 strokes worse than his previous start. Since they both blew up on a big stage, it’s helping their numbers a bit against a weaker field.
Hoge +10000 & Bridgeman +12500 (8 Places) — Two the better wedge players in the field, fingers crossed one can convert their birdie chances when they hit it to 13-feet. Both will be first round leader players as well.
Also looking at: Justin Thomas (If that number gets to 35/1). Nick Taylor (He’s playing great at the moment and has historically done well at shorter courses.)