This is basically a nothing week for my on the PGA DK and betting front. I don’t try to understand the proper strategy, so I just click names and chuck darts. The golf breakdown and bets will be Wednesdays in NFL season and I’m hoping to have the Golf Show out Monday nights or Tuesday mornings during NFL season. That schedule may adjust.
Just because I’m now making a ton of bets, I wouldn’t be making any if I wasn’t planning on winning. Two winners the last two weeks across the TOURS has me out of the hole for the year, so why not press the hot hand and go for thr turkey to close the season. Spolier: I’m far more interested in KFT and EURO than PGA this week.
Xander — The 2017 winner at East Lake (And 2019, 2020 runner up [where he actually had the lowest 72 hole score) had a hiccup at water logged TPC Southwind but rebounded quite nicely in Delaware. He finished third in SG: Ball Striking, notching his his third Top 5 finish over his past 5 starts. Worth noting, he’s never finished worse than 7th at East Lake in six tries.
Stallings — Every year, there’s the one player who fights his way from the back end of the standings, gets hot in August and makes a run towards the FedEx Cup. They rarely end up winning (thanks for nothing 2016 Ryan Moore and 2021 Kevin Na), but sometimes you get Billy Horschel and Bill Haas. While Wise for Conners may make more sense, there’s no one from this tier hotter than Stallings entering East Lake. Plus, longer odds. That never hurts.
PME NFL
It’s fucking ON!!!!!!! Me, Rob and CAMMMMMMMM returned Wednesday with our best future bets of the year. Also, Cam had to go tend to hiis chicken mid show. We didn’t stop recording
WATCH: 2022 NFL BEST BETS
The PME PGA Listener’s League is finished for 2022, which only means the NFL LL is FIRED UP!!!!! Link is now LIVE and it’s filling QUICK. So get your spot.
JOIN: Week 1 PME DK Listener’s League
If you want Fantasy Draft Cheatsheets, the RANKS are all here…
WATCH: TOP 150 RANKS Debate w/ Cust & Meaney
Top 150 https://bit.ly/22Top150Ranks
If Fantasy isn’t your jam, me, Cust, and Geoff released our 2022 NFL Awards selections.
WATCH: 2022 NFL Awards Predictions, Bets, Odds
But, here’s the thing, after a BRAND NEW Cust Corner with Ben Rasa and Cust on Sunday, NFL WIN TOTALS week kicks off with the NFC on Monday and Tuesday. And Cust is already in rare form…
GALAXY BRAIN: Fade The Form?
Finding value on the betting board (or the DFS board for that matter) is so tough this week. We are dealing with the best players in the world chasing a giant pay day with goofy starting strokes to factor in. Obviously, everyone is motivated to win, but because of the varying starting points, the paths to victory are all over the place and that adds in an element of variance that isn’t present at any other point during the season.
OK, now that we have that disclaimer out of the way, let’s try to make some money. This course has four Par 3’s and the average length of those holes is 214.3 yards. With that in mind, I’m weighing those type of Par 3’s (200-225 yards) more heavily than normal. On the other 14 holes, we are looking at a longer course with awfully thin fairways. That has me wanting my guys in the fairway. All of these guys have length, so being able to play from the short stuff is going to be critical. There are just three players in this elite field that rank top-10 in both Good Drive rate and scoring in these specific Par 3’s …
I’m looking to the “win/place without strokes” market this week. I mentioned Xander on the preview show with Geoff and I like his spot without starting strokes in this spot. Done. The other two offer some potential value … Fitzpatrick is plus-money on DraftKings to finish top-10 both with and without strokes. His approach game was a mess at BMW (-7.7 strokes), but with that the first time he lost in approach in over a calendar year, I don’t think it should scare you off his scent this week. Morikawa is the 14th priced golfer this week which is simply too low, and when you consider that he’s (theoretically) playing with increased aggression to try to make up the nine stroke deficit. Oh, and he carded a 10 last week, so it’s possible that DFS players aren’t exactly looking to go back there, so he could offer some GPP value. Its going to be hard to differentiate in such a shallow field, but starting with this skill stack gives you some win equity in Xander while exploiting some recency bias that could be shown toward both Morikawa and Fitzpatrick. Tough event this week, but some one has to win the money, why can’t it be you??
Top-10 in Par 3’s 200-225 and top-10 in Good Drives
Collin Morikawa: -1 (9 back)
Matthew Fitzpatrick: -3 (7 back)
Xander Schauffele: -6 (4 back)
GL
— PM