TNF BAL/KC PICKS, 1ST TD, INJURIES, PROPS, OTHER NOTES
Injuries
KC: Hollywood Brown Out.
BAL: Rasheen Ali OUT: Justice Hill limited value but may see some receiving game work
$25,000 SEASON LONG NFL PICK’EM POOL
I got Underdog to give me $25,000 to give back to all of you great people. This is a test year for the event, and all you need to play to get a piece of the $25K in bonus money is an Underdog Account and to punch in your Underdog User Name into the google form. Takes 10 seconds to sign up. Top Prize is $5,000. All the rules in the link.
SUBMIT UD HANDLE TO REGISTER FOR PME NFL Pick’em CONTEST
If you don’t have an Underdog account yet, do that now and usse code MAYO for a deposit bonus up to $1,000. And then take advantage of the Kelce FREE PICK for TNF.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $1000
Also of note, if you have an account and are looking to deposit for NFL, wait til Friday because they’ll give you an extra 10% on your deposit for that day.
Look, I want you to use code MAYO whereever possible. It’s how we support the show. But in all honesty, if you plan on depositing at any book during NFL season, do it all this week because Week 1 is when you’ll get the bets bonus offers from the books. There is no such thing as a LOCK, except for the bonus offers. That’s literal free money you get on money you’re going to bet anyway.
POSITION RANKINGS
I’ve updated all my position ranks, and I’ll be doing it before every game up until LOCK on Sunday. Check it out if you need someone to make a decision for you, then in turn be blame if it doesn’t go well.
READ: WEEK 1 RANKINGS LIST BY POSITION
DFS SHOWDOWN
Ship It Nation is doing a FREE LIVE show every Thursday afternoon on MMN, talking through Top Plays, different lineup builds and how to attack each slate. Obviously, it’s On-Demand as well, so go check it out if you want some ideas while you build lineups.
WATCH: NFL Week 1 TNF Showdown | BAL at KC | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process
If you prefer the tools to tell you what to do. The Full DFS package at Run The Sims makes life pretty easy on you. Here’s the distribution across 10,000 simulations for the game in the $15 DK showdown contest.
I don’t play much Showdown myself, but I decided to make one lineup and went with a 4/2 Ravens lineup to try and get more unique than the field. You know, just in case.
TOOLS: Run The Sims Lineup Builder, Projections, Opto, Simulations
These are the highest projected 4/2 Zay lineups it spat out for me. But you can customize the results anyway you like.
BTW, the best use of the DFS tools opening night is customizing the simulator for 2H DK showdown. You can find it on the “Sim Runner” tab now.
Plug in how you think the game flow is gonna go in the second half and have better lineups than 95% of the field. Most people who enter this contest are a bunch of drunks who lost everything by half time. ANDDDDDDD there’s a $10 entry contest with $10,000 to first. You know, because it’s the first game.
If you like to learn more about process and the game theroy behind DFS, I highly recomend joining over at Ship It Nation.
JOIN: Ship It Nation DFS EXCLUSIVE CONTENT
PME CONTENT
Me and Tambo will return early Fridat morning with our DraftKings Picks and Breakdown. Also, I’m doing a news and injury recap every morning on the Mayo Media YouTube Channel (and the FF Picks and Bets Audio Feed if you just prefer to listen). It;s less than 8 mins per episode and will get you caught up so you don’t need to do the leg work yourself.
WATCH: NFL Week 1 Bets, Best Spread Picks + Survivor Breakdown
WATCH: Week 1 Spread Picks, Bets, NFL Game Predictions, Survivor Picks | Cust Corner: BIG ARCH
UNDERDOG PLAYS
I had to take advantage of the Kelce free square, because why wouldn’t you?
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $1000 and tail this entry with this link.
ENTRY 2: Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $1000 and tail this entry with this link.
If that doesn’t work…
FNF PICK’EM
Devonta Smith higher 60.5 REC YARDS
New OC Kellen Moore is expected to vastly increase the rate of pre snap motion which will get Smith into superior matchups from the hop. Not that he needed it as Smith went over the 60.5 in six of his final eight games to end last year.
Jordan Love higher 5.5 Rushing Yards
Love’s rushing fell off towards the end of last season but he crushed this number in 10 of 12 to open the year. With the Eagles retaining most of the demesne which was an elite pressure D expect Love to take a off a few times in Brazil. It may only take one.
Josh Jacobs higher 2.5 Receptions
Again with the eagles pressure rate. If Love isn’t taking off, Jacobs will be there to scoop up the high percentage dump offs. Currently projected for almost four catches in this game, Jacobs’ higher than 2.5 receptions is the strongest pick in this game.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $1000 and tail this entry with this link.
1st TD
Look, betting 1st TDs in NFL games in 2024 is about the worst market you can bet into. The hold is silly for the sports book. It wasn’t always this way, but the books figured out everyone would bet into it regardless of odds so they made them much, much worse. Still, I treat it like a lotto ticket and have some fun with it. I know you do too. So, here are the players and books Run The Sims has identified with a sliver of value for the opening game.
TOOLS: Run The Sims Prop Sniper Package
The 1st TD simulator is a part of the cheaper RTS package called the “PROP SNIPER” which gets you access to all player prop sims and value, the underdog tool, range finder and more. If you don’t care about the Sims and Opto for DFS, this is the tool to get.
But in all seriousness, this is the most important thing to know about this game…
I bet it at 12/1. Couldn’t miss out on opening night.
FOOTBALLS BACK!!!!!!!
— PM