THE PLAYERS RESEARCH, TRENDS, NOTES
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OUT — DK Picks & Player Profiles (Idone)
OUT — Research, Picks, Course, Custom Model
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WEDNESDAY — Final Bets, Weather + DraftKings Picks (Tambo)
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PME DRAFTKINGS OPEN ($75K in RAKE FREE MONEY)
2023 THE PLAYERS Championship: Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Fairways Gained
Par 4s Gained
Bogey Avoidance
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Course
Course: TPC Sawgrass
Yardage: 7,189
Par: 72
Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis/velvet bentgrass
Par 3s (4): Average distance (180.5 yards) but 3 of 4 are shorter than that
All four played over par last season, with both the shortest (137 yards) and longest (237) being among the six toughest holes
Par 4s (10): Average distance (432.8 yards) with three under 400 and three of at least 470
Each of the last three Par 4s on the course ranked among the seven toughest on the course last season (Holes 14, 15 and 18)
Par 5s (4): Average distance (549 yards) with the two shortest ones being the two easiest holes on the course
All four had a birdie or better rate north of 30%, with those two short ones clearing 40% (sub 9% bogey rate)
Holes 11-16 might need a name from the fantasy community. Over that stretch, three of the four easiest holes pop up and only one truly tough hole
2022: Cam Smith was -8 on those holes with a pair of birdie streaks (-5 on all other holes)
2021: Justin Thomas was -7 on those holes (-7 on all other holes)
2019: Rory McIlroy was -9 on those holes (-7 on all other holes)
2018: Webb Simpson was -12 on those holes with a pair of birdie streaks (-6 on all other holes
DraftKings Streaking: Going back-to-front is a tough sell, with the 462-yard 18th hole being the toughest on the course (forget building a birdie streak, you just want to stay even … 33% bogey or worse rate). Hole 8 is tough, but if you take a look at the wrap-around of 9-10-11, we are talking about 2 of the 5 easiest holes on the course and a tougher Hole 10 that still gave up birdies at a 15.1% rate.
Field
Field: 144 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
First Tee: Thursday, March. 9
Past Winners
2022: Cameron Smith -13
2021: Justin Thomas -14
2019: Rory McIlroy -16
2018: Webb Simpson -18
2017: Si Woo Kim -10
2016: Jason Day -15
2015: Rickie Fowler -12
2014: Martin Kaymer -13
2013: Tiger Woods -13
2022: Cam Smith (-13, 1 clear of Anirban Lahiri)
Saved his best for Sunday (66), but was under par in all four rounds
Nine players gained over 3.5 strokes on approach and picked up at least something with the putter. Eight of them cashed a top-13 paycheck and this was something all three podium finishers accomplished.
2021: Justin Thomas (-14, 1 clear of Lee Westwood)
The top 5 on the Round 1 leaderboard all finished top 10 for the week, but Thomas was the exception: -2 through two rounds, -12 over the final two rounds (64 on moving day)
Thirteen of the top-16 finishers on final leaderboard gained strokes off the tee (two of the three that did not do that made up for it by being a top-5 approach player for the week
2019: Rory McIlroy (-16, 1 clear of Jim Furyk)
Rory led after the cut with a Friday 65 and did just enough on Sunday (he shot 70, the three guys under him were all at least 3 shots better)
Each of the top-7 finishers gained proximity in either the 175-200 yard or the 200+ yard bucket (McIlory won by gaining in both)
2018: Webb Simpson (-18, 4 clear of Xander Schauffele/Charl Schwartzel/Jimmy Walker)
After sharing the first round lead with 5 others, Webb distanced himself with a Friday 63, the round of the tournament.
Webb was the best putter in the field. 20 of the top-22 finishers gained with the flatstick
2017: Si Woo Kim (-10, 3 clear of Louie Oosthuizen/Ian Poulter)
He was the only golfer to post 3 rounds in the 60s. He was 5 strokes better than Poulter and 9 better than Oosthuizen over the weekend
8 of the top-9 finishers gained strokes putting in that 15-20 foot range. That range saved Si Woo … he lost strokes in the 5-10’, 10-15’ and 25’ ranges
2016: Jason Day (-15, 4 clear of Kevin Chappell)
Day was 2 strokes better than anyone on Thursday, and it’s a good thing … Chappell was 4 strokes better than Day over the final 3 days, but it didn’t matter
6 of the top-8 putters for the week cashed top-10 paychecks
Players Championship Winner Lead In Form
2022: Cam Smith was top-15 in 4 of 6 events prior to the win
2021: Justin Thomas was top-15 in 8 of 9 events prior to the win
2019: Rory McIlroy was top-6 in 5 straight events prior to the win
2018: Webb Simpson was top-21 in 4 straight events prior to the win (he already had 3 top-5 finishes on his resume for the season)
2017: Si Woo Kim after WD’s and missed cuts cluttering his early season results, did post a T-22 finish in the lead in event
2016: Jason Day was top-10 in 3 of 4 events prior to the win
WEATHER
We’re too far out to make any proclimations, but I’ll drop the link to the closest wind tower to the course so you can bookmark…
PLAYERS WIND TOWER: PONTE VERDE/VILLANO
BETS
Nothing fresh as of this moment. We’re likely to get THE GREAT RESET of odds early Monday morning, so I’m hoping it will be more generous then. My current short list — before I narrow it down, and let other people talk me into others I wasn’t thinking about: Tom Kim, Si WOOOO Kim, Max Homa, Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas.
I have a bet in on Tom Kim already from way back, but I’ll likely hit it again. It’s currently in teh 50/55 range, it’ll probbaly slip into the 60/75 range (I hope) Monday morning after a good but average week at Bay Hill
TOM KIM — The limiting factor with Kim’s game is driving distance. He’s not Brendon Todd short off the tee, but he’s well off the pace of the Rory’s and Rahm’s of the world. At places like Riviera and Torrey Pines, he’s at an inherent disadvantage, with so many of his approaches coming with longer irons. He has to be far more precise than his bomber brethren, which can be difficult to keep up over four rounds. That’s not the case at Sawgrass. It’s far more important to hit fairways this week; Kim sits 15th in the field in fairways gained in the 2023 season. He’s great with his wedges and can scramble, so it’s likely to hinge all on his putter. His putting stroke seems like a legit coin flip each week. He’s lost as much at 6.7 strokes, putting over two rounds at one point. He also gained 12.5 over four en route to a victory in the same stretch. There really seems to be no in-between.
Fortunately, that win and great putting week was at the Wyndham Championship. The course with the most crossover winners with THE PLAYERS. And if it’s narratives you want, the story writes itself. Sawgrass has been the spot for young star breakthrough wins over the years: Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Si WOOOO Kim. Why not Tom Kim next?
More Notes & Info
— PM