152nd Open Championship
Field: 156 Players
Cut: Top 70 and Ties
Defedning Champion: Brian Harman
The Open Odds Watch
The biggest mover from Monday Morning to Monday evening has been Louis. He opened at 110/1 and quickly got bet down to 65/1. I got in at 100 as heard on the Bets show Monday morning. The other one I’m monitoring is Brooks. He fallen all the way down to 45/1 at Bet 365, I believe he’s 50/1 at Bet Philip Rivers atm. And it doesn’t seem to be attracting any bites. It may fall more over rte next before everyone piles on.
PICKS & BETS SHOW
Usually, Geoff, Cust, and I keep it pretty straight for Major shows during golf season as theres a lot of new people watch. We decided to say fuck it, and did our normal show for the people who enjoy it. There’s even a Cust Corner Mini about Tim’s idea for an indoor golf course. Check this one out.
WATCH: British Open Picks, Bets, One and Done, Most Cursed Players | Cust Corner: Indoor Golf Courses
Geoff and I also put together an initial Underdog play for Thursday. Doing one of these every day for The Open. (Spolier: There’s another one below along with a secret link to a secret show)
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $250 and tail this entry with this link.
Course Notes
Small Fairways & Greens + Fast and Firm
There are only three new bunkers for the 152nd Open Championship, two of which are on the 6th hole with the other added to the 1st fairway. Martin Ebert wasn’t done with the 6th hole. He also added 22 yards, stretching the back tees to 623 yards. This makes it the longest hole in Open history.
There are new tees on nine of the holes but the new tee on the 10th hole introduces a completely blind shot to the Open venue
When I watched Blickle play Troon on a simulator last week, we pondered whether the field would try and bomb drives over the burn on No. 3 to set up an easy wedge into the Par 5 as very few attempted this in 2016. We got an answer today.
The back nine is significantly more difficult than the opening 9. Starting at Hole 9, the field will face eight the nine hardest holes on the course. The only real relief is No. 16.
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WEATHER
Don’t put too much stock into the weather currently, as we have a long way to go to the opening tee shot Thursday am. However, since last Wednesday’s post, we now see moderate to substantial wind each of the first two days. Looking ahead to Sunday and beyond, I’d wager not’s only going to get windier in the forecast as we get to lock.
WIND TOWER: TROON
Tee times are announced Tuesday am in North America, but you need to remember that there are no split tees at The Open. So wave stacks are more difficult to fill out as a result since there could be up to eight hour between some of the tee times. Think of it less as AM/PM but to block players off in 3 hour (or less, if you think it will be the same as 2016) increments.
COURSE
Course: Royal Troon
Yardage 7,190
Par: 71
Greens: Bentgrass/Poa
Bunkers: 98
Par 3's (4): Average Distance -- 183 yards
- Henrik Stenson (2016 champion) had two birdies on Par 3's through the first two rounds, a number he doubled over the weekend
- The final Par 3 on property (#17) was long back in 2016 and is 22 yards longer this season, checking in at 242 yards (one of five holes extended by 20+ yards from 2016)
Par 4's (11): Average Distance -- 432 yards
- Stenson dominated the Par 4's from the start of Round 2 through the end of Round 3: one bogey and six birdies)
- The first three holes on the course are the three shortest Par 4's. Once you get past that stretch, the average yardage of the 4's jumps to 452.
Par 5's (3): Average Distance -- 570 yards
- Stenson birdied the first Par 5 in three of four rounds in 2016 and he did the same thing for the final one. His lone eagle came on the other Par 5, but so did his only bogey on the 5's for the week (Round 3)
- These three holes are, in total, 84 yards longer than back in 2016 (Hole #4 accounts for the majority of that yardage with a 44-yard lengthening)
WINNERS
2023: Brian Harman -13
2022: Cam Smith -20
2021: Collin Morikawa -15
2020: DNP
2019: Shane Lowry -15
2018: Francesco Molinari -8
2017: Jordan Spieth -12
2016 (Royal Troon): Henrik Stenson -20
WINNER NOTES
2023: Brian Harman -13 (six clear of Jason Day, Tom Kim, Jon Rahm, and Sepp Straka)
- He was just one back after a 67 on Thursday and shot the second best round of the week on Friday (65)
- The Open prior: 6th (consecutive top 20's at the event prior to the win, coming after missing four straight Open cuts)
- Form: 12th at Genesis leading in, his third straight top-12 finish (highlighted by a 2nd place finish at Travelers)
2022: Cam Smith -20 (one clear of Cam Young)
- He fired a pair of 64's (Friday and Sunday), both of which were the best rounds of the day
- The Open prior: 33rd
- Form: He was 10th at Genesis and had shown us a wide range of outcomes (in his eight events prior to this win, he had five top 15 finishes and three outside of the top 45)
2021: Collin Morikawa -15 (two clear of Jordan Spieth)
- His 64 on Friday was the best of the day and proved to be the difference against Spieth
- The Open prior: DNP (he won his debut and has missed the cut in the two seasons prior)
- Form: He had posted five straight top-15 finishes, all of which saw him gain over 6.5 strokes on approach
2019: Shane Lowry -15 (six clear of Tommy Fleetwood)
- His 63 on Saturday was the only sub-65 round of the week, giving him the ability to coast to the finish line with a 72 on Sunday
- The Open prior: MC
- Form: He finished 28th at the US Open before taking a month off leading into this win (prior to the US Open, he had posted three straight Top 10's)
2018: Francesco Molinari -8 (two clear of Kevin Kisner, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and Justin Rose)
- He was 8 strokes better over the weekend than the first two rounds (Xander was five strokes better than him through Friday)
- The Open prior: MC
- Form: He followed up his win at Quicken Loans with a runner-up finish at John Deere in his two events prior (+14.3 strokes on approach across those tournaments)
2017: Jordan Spieth -12 (three clear of Matt Kuchar)
- He was the FRL with a 65 and was the only golfer to card four rounds in the 60's
- The Open prior: 30th
- Form: He won the Travelers in his lead-in event and has finished inside the top-15 in three of his previous four events ... he entered this tournament having gained 5+ strokes on approach in three straight measured events
2016 (Royal Troon): Henrik Stenson -20 (three clear of Phil Mickelson and 14 clear of the rest of the field)
- He posted the best score on the course on Friday ... and Saturday ... and Sunday
- The Open prior: 40th
- Form: Missed the cuts at Wells Fargo and THE PLAYERS before taking two months off prior to this victory ... he entered this tournament having gone over 22+ months since losing strokes in approach in a measured event
**You'll notice that not many of these players were top 25 in The Open the season prior and entered their victory with strong form in terms of approach. Some names that check both of those boxes ... (SG:APP rates entering The Scottish Open)
Corey Conners (52nd in 2023) -- has gained SG:APP in 79% of rounds this year
Sahith Theegala (MC in 2023) -- has gained SG:APP in 71% of rounds this year
Collin Morikawa (MC in 2023) -- has gained SG:APP in 71% of rounds this year
Tony Finau (MC in 2023) -- has gained SG:APP in 75% of rounds this year
Tom Hoge (MC in 2023) -- has gained SG:APP in 67% of rounds this year
2016 Royal Troon Leaderboard
OPEN PICKS
Tony Finau — While nothing seems like a greater waste of money than betting Finau to win a Major (maybe betting Fleetwood?) the breadcrumbs are all there for a breakthrough victory. Finau has been Scottie-lite all year in the ball striking department, he was just chipping and putting his way out of tournaments. Since a disappointing finish at the Masters, that has been less of a problem. He’s gained around the greens in five straight while posting positives three starts in a row with his putter. That’s led to three straight Top 10s, two in signature events, and a T3 at The US Open. Plus, Finau’s only missed one cut in seven Open starts (2023), two Top 10s, six Top 30s, and was T18 in his Open debut at Troon in 2016.
Louis Oosthuizen — The 2010 Champion Golfer of the Year is having one of the best year’s of career, and no one has noticed. He’s gone 1st/1st/2nd in his last three Non-LIV starts while posting Top 10s in over half his LIV starts in 2024. Including a pair of runners-up. Despite all that, this is Louis’ only Major appearance this year. Why he declined a PGA Championship invite, I do not know. But if he wants to cap off a great season, and get into next year’s biggest events, a top end finish at Troon is necessary.
Akshay Bhatia — I hit the number while Akshay was contending at Rocket Mortgage, and it’s done nothing but drop since. So I’ve already won the CLV game. Unfortunately that doesn’t pay. Honestly, I have no idea how he’ll do on his first trip through Major links golf, but his game reminds be enough of Stenson’s (Accuracy, great irons, poor short game) that it’s worth a gamble at deep odds. Previous to his T2 in Detroit, Bhatia was T5 at Travelers and T16 at The US Open.
I’m probably gonna add Hatton soon in case you were wondering
If you’re reading this on a Monday night, HERES THE SECRET LINK TO THE BEST BETS SHOW WITH CAM AND RASA.
WATCH: British Open Best Bets, Odds, Outright Winners | The Open Weather, Strategy & Skills
From that show I ended up betting Louis 14/1 as Top former winner and Ernie Els Top Senior at +1000. Ernie won a Sr. Major last week!
We also made the Mayo/Cam/Rasa Underdog entry for Rd1 if you wanna get in on it.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $250 and tail this entry with this link.
Barracuda Championship
REMINDER: It’s stableford scoring at the Cuda.
Course: Tahoe Mountain Club (Old Greenwood)
Yardage: 7,480
Par: 71
Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Annua
Number of Sand Bunkers: 95
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 6
Past Winners
Akshay +40
Chez +43
EVR +50 (Tournament Record)
Richy Werenski +39
Morikawa +47
Putnam +47
Basically, player who are pretty to very good and generally excellent iron players. A lot of accuracy, wedge mavens in this crew.
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Picks
Rico Hoey 55 — After blowing the win for all of us on the 72nd hole in Kentucky, Hoey is either going to implode and miss the or rebound and build off his recent momentum. Hoey was T20 in this event a year ago, but T3 in actual score btw.
JJ Spaun 50 — Averaging over +4.5 SG: App the past two starts and rates out No. 1 in the short term scoring stats. Good enough for 50/1.
Nick Hardy 100 — Bet him last week and he lost 7.7 strokes putting. Fun. Hardy was Top 10 in ball striking however, and is in the triple digits now. Also the -7.7 SG: PUTT was the worse putting performance of his career by more than 2.5 strokes.
Think about Troy Merrit too. But we’ll see on that.
Last Week SG Leaderboard
Last Year’s Cuda Leaderboard
— PM