Here’s my single fav from for the game: Burrow o2.5 rushing attempts. And it’s nice to see the simulations agree with me.
If you don’t believe me, just ask our friend who we’ve been taking cash off of all year using the Props tool
It’s a shame he finally picked up on this.
RTS also found this gem, which looks like about as STRONG of an UNDER as you’ll find. Especially with the potential for Darrell Henderson getting back into the mix. It doesn’t matter if Henderson isn’t the lead in the Rams backfield, merely taking a handful of touches away is incredibly helpful.
FREE MONEY
Now, I also have some free money for ya. Something you’d be interested in? And you can get it in two different ways.
So, you’re gonna get a profit of $95 at the worst, but you may as well try to win your entry too, right?
Shout Out to Prize Picks for giving us as many options as possible to choose from for the Super Bowl. It’s definitely the most organized of the sites I’ve seen.
Cam is on location in LA on Radio Row but, bless him, he still found time to come yuck it up with Pizzola and I. Show is out now on video and audio, but here’s a cheatsheet if that’s all you care about. I recommend not going past the GOLD picks. After that it’s been a crapshoot
- Underdogs are 13-7 ATS over the past 20 Super Bowls
- Unders have hit in 3 straight (5 of the previous 6 went over)
- The last team to win a Super Bowl outright and fail to cover the number: 2008 Steelers
2021 Playoff Trends
- Favorites are 6-6 ATS
o 5-1 during Wild Card Week, 1-5 since
- Unders are 8-4
o 4-2 during Wild Card Week, 4-2 since
Bengal Trends
- 7 straight covers (covering by an average of 6.6 points per game)
- 4 straight unders (unders were 2-7 in their previous 9)
- 8-3 ATS this season as an underdog
Ram Trends
- Opened the season with 3 straight overs, 9 of 13 games since have gone under
- 4-8 ATS this season when favored by more than a FG (6-2 ATS otherwise)
- Vegas has figured them out
o 2 of their first 13 games saw the covering team cover the number by over 6 points
o 6 of their last 7 games have seen the covering team cover by 6 or fewer points
Jalen Ramsey wants Ja’Marr Chase
Chase has led the Bengals in receiving yards just 3 times since Halloween
Young, Tatum and Brown are all top-20 in usage rate this season
BOS’s pace is up 4.4% of the past 2 weeks
Tatum is shooting a career best 89% from the line
Brown/Tatum are both averaging career highs in FTA
Chase has 10 games with 65 or fewer receiving yards, 5 games with over 115
70-80 points is the most likely outcome for the basketball trio
Bright side? The Hawks and Celtics play at 2pm. So you’ll have a decent understanding of where this bet stands by kickoff. Chase is a wide range of outcomes, less so in the NBA. You could take Chase under 79.5 receiving yards (-115) but this gives you a few more outs (the basketball trio could get up to 90) and you get plus odds,
Let your pick to cover dictate your first half pick
Over the past decade, teams that have covered their playoff game are 84-25 at covering +0.5 points in the first half
In game bet?
The last team to cover a Super Bowl and lost the first quarter … 2009 Saints.
First quarter points: Under 9.5 points (line shop this: DK has 7.5, some places have up to 10 – juiced)
Over the past 20 Super Bowls, 6.6 first quarter PPG
Both teams averaged under 4 points per first quarter this regular season
Both teams were top 12 in limiting yards per first quarter play this regular season
Both teams saw their air yards per pass check in at least 7.5% lower in the first quarter than the rest of the game this regular season (fewer big plays, longer possessions, fewer scoring chances, etc)
More fading points
In the past 14 Super Bowls, just once has an offensive TD been scored in the first 10 minutes (2012 Ravens)
Don’t love the juice, but …
CIN is bottom-10 in blitz rate, Stafford has thrown a pick in 6 straight games against such teams (and in 8 of 9 games this season
- In those 9 games: 65.1% complete (other games: 70.5%)
o That would point UNDER in completions (24.5), especially if you think the Rams are playing with a lead
§ When the game is within a FG this season, LAR passes at the 4th highest rate
§ When leading by 4+ points … they rank 17th in pass rate
Bombs away? Maybe not
Over the past 11 Super Bowls (so 22 teams), just 7x has a team had a completion gain over 38.5 yards
Cross Sport Exotic
Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 38.5 points + rebounds + assists this season (42.7 over the past 10 days)
He plays a selling Pacers team (likely to deal their best player before Thursday’s deadline)
His floor since returning from protocols: 28 (32+ in each of the other 15 games)
He has 4 or fewer fouls in 36 of 46 games … so foul trouble shouldn’t play too much a factor (especially if we assume the Pacers deal Sabonis sooner than later)
The Bengals and Rams have allowed a total of 10 TDs of 35+ yards (half have been under 45 yards)
I think this is a decent prop without the spread, you’re giving me +8.5 and I have it locked and loaded
Hold your nose
Over the past 15 Super Bowls, 23 times has a QB thrown 30+ passes (something both Stafford and Burrow are doing 70%+ of the time this season)
Only 5 of them ran for over 6 yards (Cam and Kaepernick were obvious names to get to that number)
First play, if you want to chase + money
Since 2010, first quarter pass rates …
Regular season: 56.7%
Playoffs: 58.5% (dips to 58.3% if you exclude Super Bowls)
Super Bowls: 60.8%
Player Parlay
Tyler Boyd has an end zone target in 4 of Cincy’s past 5 games
CIN has won the past 5 games in which Boyd gets an end zone target
Short pass TD … if you’re betting on Boyd, you’re likely thinking a short score
It hasn’t been the big name guys scoring those TDs vs LAR this season. Here are the players with a TD catch of under 15 yards vs LAR:
Zach Pascal, AJ Dillon, Geoff Swaim, Jauan Jennings, Maxx Williams, Randall Cobb, KJ Osborn, Gio Bernard, Brevin Jordan and George Kittle
The longer TDs are where the big names got involved: Deebo in two of the matchups, DK Metcalf, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, etc
These projections have Henderson IN and Higbee and Uzomah OUT. Of course, that may change, but the projections will be updated when there is more information.
CUSTYS
Since you decided to read this far down the newsletter, you’re in luck! We’re doing a Custys Panel show that is dropping next week. But here’s the thing, it’s actually already done. And now you can watch it if you like
