St. Jude Bets, NFL Preseason, DK Ownership

Weather & QBs Part 2

Mayo Media

Aug 10, 2022

PGA TOUR Communications @PGATOURComms

Hideki Matsuyama is a WD from the FedEx St. Jude Championship with a neck injury. Statement from Matsuyama:

NFL DFS

It’s widely known NFL Preseason on DraftKings is one of the most exploitable markets of the year… if you know what you’re doing. Me, I have no fucking clue.

HOWEVEAAAAAAAA, Run The Sims has made it profitable even for a goober like myself. As a part of the DFS/Betting package, you’ll get playing time and score projections, along with subjective player notes for each game on the slate. All of which get updated the moment.

NFL Preseason is essentially a research project: Can you identify the most reliable source, and how can you make a decision based on that information. So far so good through one preseason game. A full slate makes things a lot easiest as you can pick and choose from each team.

And GOOD NEWS, the discounted price is still available until August 15 at $249 for the season, and code “MAYO” unlocks another 10% off the price. So, save $75 NOW and use it to attack the easy slates instead of waiting 3 weeks when the regular season rolls around and get the same thing for $75. Seems pretty sensible tbh.

JOIN: 10% OFF RUN THE SIMS OPTO + PROJECTIONS + TOOLS

Shout out to everyone’s fav dude, Stewie, who dipped his toe in the water on the Hall of Fame game and paid off the entire year and inflated hisi bankroll at the same time.

Scott Stewart (STEWIE) @ScottSt1963

Thank you ⁦@RunTheSims⁩ your projections were spot on

St. Jude Bets

Let’s keep it light and near the top of the board in Memphis. If you’re looking for the extended each ways, they’re on Bet365.

WATCH: St. Jude Final Bets & Weather

Zalatoris — At an event which has seen a winner and a few runners up the past two years win despite losing strokes on the green, who else can we go with but Zalatoris. Outside of Tony Finau, no one’s been better at those two things than Zalatoris. And, albeit the smallest of samples, he did gain strokes with the putter at southwind a year ago.

Billy Horschel — Horschel hasn’t had near his best stuff the past two turns and still managed Top 30 finishes. He’s accurate enough off the tee to avoid many of the landmines, and has the frequency ability to run so hot with his putter that he can make up for some of his iron deficiencies.

Brendan Steele — OK, Steele may be too much of a disaster with the putter to truly contend, however, a Top 10, that’s plausible. Steele’s gained over +4.5 SG: Approach in four of past five starts, and hasn’t dipped below +1.7 SG:OTT since his first event of 2022 — The Sony Open.

Someone in the chat today pointed out this may be a week to get on the make cut parlays, and I agree. we’re down to 120 players, 10/15 are dead fish, so realistically, aronud 60% of the real players are gonna make the weekend. So I decided to dink off some cash on them

+2700 (Also played as a 10 player round robin)

2. +2770

3. +3319

Week 1 NFL DraftKings

It’s that time to look forward to the real games, so I got Adam Levitan on the horn to chat DFS lineup building strategy, tournament selection, and Week 1 early values.

WATCH: Week 1 DK Picks, Values, First Look

If you’re in the mood for something more light (with far more yelling) check out Part 2 of the QB ranks with me, Cust, and Geoff. It drops Thursday, but here’s the advanced video link.

WATCH: BEST QB RANKS PART 2: 1-10

Over the next two weeks, expect more of Cust/Geoff, the return of Pizzola/Cam, some Tambo on NFL, a new research project assigning dollars to spread points, and our pal MEANEY!!!!!

GALAXY BRAIN: Uncomplicating The Complicated

The playoff can be a bit confusing: with all the moving pieces, but we are playing DFS and/or betting for this week only and you know what? The skill set that profiles well at TPC Southwind is … straight forward? Or at least it looks that way and that’s the story I’m telling. This is a long-ish course with skinny fairways and small greens. With the thin fairways (not to mention some projected rain in the 24 hours prior to this teeing off), it reasonable to assume that many players will be sacrificing some distance for a better shot at the short grass. Yes, it’s a longer course, but these are the best players in the world and being in the rough is a greater disadvantage than a few extra yards off the tee. With this in mind, here are the top-15 in long irons over the past 36 rounds:

Now that we have long iron play in our bag, let’s score. I mentioned the smaller greens and smaller greens mean two things: (1) hitting the green in regulation is tough and (2) a greater percentage of putts come in those knee-knocker ranges. Seems logical. Of the 15 player pool above, seven of them rank in the top half of this field in BOTH of those categories:

An interesting list to say the least. Yes, three of the seven $10k+ guys are included, but Hovland grades right there with the uber-elites if you want to save a few bucks without giving up much in the way of win equity. You could build a GPP lineup with just this player pool if you’re comfortable with the double punt …

Kurt Kitayama: Spike-ability. He’s gained over 3.0 opportunities on the field in four of his past seven events, giving him upside that is rate at this price point. The last time we saw him was at Rocket Mortgage, a tournament in which he had the best Fairways Gained week of his career.

Tyler Duncan: He’s gained off the tee in five of six and has been locked in with those long irons for a month now.