Sony Open Power Rankings & Stat Models
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Sony Open Stat Rankings
As always, you can input anything you like (along with using the DFS ownership Projections, Lineup Builder, Event Simulator, etc at Fantasy National)
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I decided to run a bunch of course related models then combine them all into one for the ultimate SONY OPEN POWER RANKINGS!!!!
First Up: Current Stat Rankings
I went through how I came to these particular stats on the Research Show.
I ran the same stats for the past 24 Rounds and the Past 75 Rounds. It’s tough this early in the year, since the most recent stats are from sometime before all players took a massive layoff. Hence why I did the short term AND the long term.
I’ve also added the rolling report of these stats so you can track the players’ performance over set time periods, from short to long term.
Past 24 Rounds
Past 75 Rounds
Rolling Report
Second: Course Specifications for Waialae
Using the filter bar on left side on Fantasy National, I turned on these filters, which match Waialae CC.
Sample: Last 24 Rounds (Average per round)
Scoring: Easy + Average
Greens: Bermuda
Firmness Medium + Firm
Fairways: Average + Difficult
Green Speed: Average + Fast
Length: Under 7,200 Yards
Third: Last Three Years at Waialae per Round
Fourth: Four Closest Courses (In my Opinion, at least)
Since we’ve already looked at Waialae-only numbers, I’ve sorted the next closest courses in style and results to see if different players have started to emerge.
While courses like Torrey Pines, Riviera, US Open Venues, Quail Hollow, and others give a huge advantage to bombers, this collection of courses are all shorter, strategy courses like Waialae. While distance never really hurts at any course, these tracks can all be conquered with strategic tee shots setting up irons to attack pins from the preferred distance and angles of the player.
Colonial CC
El Chameleon GC
Harbour Town GL
Sedgefield CC
Fifth: Those Four Courses along with Sawgrass and PGA National
Sawgrass and PGA National are both shorter Bermuda courses and have seen a massive amount of crossover success with Waialae. There’s one massive issue: All the water at those courses can massively skew the data simply from one or two awful shots. Especially over a small sample, like this. There are enough similar results between the courses to take a glance at those number however. Can’t hurt to look.
Now, these are all numbers coming at you with little context of what to do with them.
Selfishly, I’m banking on the winner being one of the 109 names appearing on these lists so I can victory lap it. Yes, this is how far I’ve fallen. To actually give it real context (good or bad, depending on if you agree with what I’ve looked decided to research) I’ve loaded each of the six primary models into the Fantasy National SUPER MIXED CONDITION MODEL to give me a weighted average of all of these models.
Here’s how I’ve weighted them:
Each of the results are set at 20% expect the two featuring four of the same courses. I figured I since I duplicated their value giving it 2x weight like everything else wouldn’t be sensible.
Additionally, I spoke about the higher degree of variance in the numbers from PGA National and Sawgrass, so only having those as a part of the 10% model give it just a mere dustying of those numbers. Which is exactly what I wanted.
RESULTS: Mixed Condition Model
Not a huge surprise to see Russell Henley at the top. He won at El Chameleon in 2022 while finishing runner up at the 2022 Sony Open, losing in a playoff to Hideki Matsuyama. Although it isn’t reflected in these numbers since the sample range didn’t go that far back, Henley won the Sony in 2013 and at PGA National in 2014. He also has 10 other Top 10s in his career (excluding the wins) between Harbour Town GL, Sedgefield CC, PGA National, and Waialae CC.
After Henley you have Conners, Davis, Hideki, Rose, and Kirk who all sport solid to amazing event histories at the Sony Open. And, while Glover has been a mixed bag at Waialae, he did finish T5 here two years ago; and, now with his magic broom stick, he actually makes a few putts.
BONUS MODEL
Beyond the courses included in the crossovers I referenced, you may want to look into the Bermuda Championship and Sanderson Farms for deeper sleepers in the field. No top players go to those events, and most of the mid-tier of the PGA Tour skip out on it as well; the guys in the $6,000 range on DraftKings or above 150/1 on the odds boards are most definitely in those fields, though.
No. 1: Port Royal Golf Course (Bermuda Championshp) Last Three Years
Of this group, JJ Spaun, Ben An, Ben Griffin, Andrew Putnam, and Mav McNealy all finished T12 or better at the 2023 Sony Open, while Ryan Palmer is a former winner and Peter Malnati was first round leader at Waialae in 2021.
No. 2: CC of Jackson (Sanderson Farms) Last Three Years
The field strength at the Sanderson Farms isn’t quite as scrubby as the one which makes the trek to Bermuda, but again, a lot of successful Sony names pop up.
From this collection of names, Si Woo Kim won last year with Hayden Buckley in second. With Griffin, McNealy, Montgomery, Conners, and SH Kim all earning T12 or better finishes. Of Note, Nick Taylor — T7/T11 in his last two trips to Honolulu — earned his maiden PGA win at CC of Jackson.
— PM
Tuesday: Full Course Breakdown & Bets
So…