ONE AND DONE
The ONE AND DONE ($500K Guaranteed; $50K to first) starts Thursday with the Sony Open.
PLAY: GOLF ONE AND DONE LEAGUE
I also threw up a quick One and Done strategy and “what is OAD” vid this weekend too. Check it out if you’re OAD curious.
WATCH: ONE & DONE STRATEGY, TIPS, HOW TO PLAY
Sony Open Early Notes
WATCH: Sony Open Research, Picks, Preview
With 24 of the 38 golfers from the Sentry staying in Hawaii this week, most notably Bryson DeChambeau, Hideki Matsuyama, and Cam Smith, and a who’s who of the PGA Tour mid tiers, the PGA Tour rolls on with the Sony Open. 7 of the last 8 Sony Open winners have played at the TOC the week before, and the one who didn’t – Cam Smith in 2020 – had played in the President’s Cup, and then in the Australian PGA event in December 2019, so he was not coming in cold like most non-TOC players in this event. That doesn’t mean they had to play well - 2021 champion Kevin Na nearly came DFL at the TOC, before winning the Sony.
Past Winners
2021: Kevin Na -21
2020: Cameron Smith -11
2019: Matt Kuchar -22
2018: Patton Kizzire -17
2017: Justin Thomas -27
2016: Fabian Gomez -20
2015: Jimmy Walker -23
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 4s Gained
Eagles Gained
Good Drives Gained
Course Notes
Course: Waialae CC
Par: 70
Yardage: 7,044
Greens: Bermuda
Other Notes
The only time in recent memories this hasn’t been a total birdiefest was 2020, when extreme wind screwed with the course. That’s rare, and not to be expected this week.
Players only hit ~52% of fairways at Waialae, compared to ~61% Tour average. You’d think that would make accuracy mean a lot here, but it doesn’t. The field still hits Greens in Regulations higher than TOUR average, hence “Good Drives Gained” this week
If you’re scrambling here, you’re already dead – Greens In Regulation rate is above Tour average.
Here’s the first run of my custom stats from Fantasy National over the last 36 rounds. No rounds from the Tourney of Champs are factored in this. They’ll be added to Fantasy National Monday morning…
After going the research and first look show, Seamus Power kept rating out higher than I would have expected. And once I started looking at course Par/length & similar courses, all of a sudden we saw a lit of Cam Davis and Kramer Hickok. No idea what to make of this.
Week 18 — Matchup Notes
The Seahawks (6) are the only team on the main slate to have allowed 300+ passing yards more than 4 times.
The Texans have allowed 150+ rushing yards 9 times this season … no other team has allowed more than 6 such games
The Ravens and Cowboys are the only defenses that have allowed 5+ 20-yard plays in the majority of their games this season
WATCH: Week 18 DraftKings Picks
Defenses allowing the most fantasy points per RB carry
- Jets: 0.764 (at BUF)
- Texans: 0.759 (vs TEN)
- Chargers: 0.717 (at LV)
- Lions: 0.698 (vs GB)
- Bills: 0.686 (vs NYJ)
Defenses allowing the fewest fantasy points per RB carry
- Saints: 0.455 (at ATL)
- Cardinals: 0.526 (vs SEAO
- Patriots: 0.541 (at MIA)
- Footballs: 0.558 (at NYG)
- Seahawks: 0.561 (at AZ)
Defenses that allow the highest percentage of opponents yards to come through the air
- Ravens: 76.9% (vs PIT)
- Titans: 73.8% (at HOU)
- Bengals: 72.5% (at CLE)
- Buccaneers: 72.5% (vs CAR)
- Footballs 71.7% (at NYG)
Defenses that allow the highest percentage of opponents yards to come on the ground
- Bears: 40% (at MIN)
- Bills: 39.7% (vs NYJ)
- Steelers: 38.8% (at BAL)
- Panthers: 38.6% (at TB)
- Patriots: 38.3% (at MIA)
GALAXY BRAIN: Correlation
Stacking players is almost always right in GPP’s and in a week with so much uncertainty (motivation, health, etc.), it’s as important as ever. The thought process is simple: you have less to “get right” than making a roster full of players that have no impact on one another.
I detailed in the Tuesday newsletter why I like the Rams as a feature stack. I still think Van Jefferson makes a ton a sense for a triple stack, but for this lineup, he didn’t make the cut.
I think the D’Onta Foreman/Brandin Cooks game stack almost makes too much sense to overlook. Sure, it might be chalky, but you need a unique lineup, not nine unique pieces. The Titans are double digit favorites with plenty of motivation and they’ve remained a top-5 offense in terms of rush rate even after the Derrick Henry injury. Could Henry returning to the active roster alleviate some rostership on Foreman? Sure hope so, because if Foreman is anywhere near the 19 carries, he’s a good bet to be in the optimal lineup by week’s end after facing the worst run defense in terms of yards per carry allowed to running backs. If we are right on the Titans bludgeoning the Texans, Houston is going to have to air it out and they happen to have a player in Brandin Cooks who ranks 5th in target share this season (26.5%). They also happen to have the best rookie QB in this draft class (at least in terms of on-target rate and that’s as good a place as any when you’re banking on a high volume receiver in a pass heavy script).
Same story, different names. The Cardinals are flirting with being touchdown favorites, are down their top receiver, will likely be without the second head of their two headed backfield and haven’t gotten much production from the QB position of late (yes, Kyler is a big name, but excuse me if 4 TD passes on 171 attempts over the past month doesn’t excite me). Sounds like a good spot for a player that rank 2nd in rushing TDs this season, doesn’t it? On the flip side of James Conner is a leverage spot. DK Metcalf went bonkers last week with 3 TDs and that’s going to generate a lot of FOMO clicks. Tyler Lockett had a historic game against the Cardinals less than 14 months ago (15-200-3) and in his past three meetings with the divisional rival, he’s caught 28-of-33 targets for 382 yards and 4 TD on 107 routes. Metcalf in those games on 106 routes: 9 catches on 17 targets for 100 yards and 1 TD. The story we are telling is the same as the Texans/Titans game: we have a featured back on a heavy favorite facing a receiver with proven upside in a chasing spot. You love to see it.
Of course, elite level stacking like this costs money, so we will have to get creative to round out the roster … and here is where we assure ourselves of a correlated lineup WITH no chalk concerns. The Dub Scrub. The tight end position, outside of the elite, is largely a crap shoot, so why not aim as low as possible? I’m talking way low. If you combined John Bates’ and Hayden Hurst’s price tags, they’d only be TE4 on this slate. Washington faces the fourth worst scoring defense over the past month and Atlanta has the second highest tight end target share in the NFL. Neither is a lock to do anything at all, but with injuries ahead of them on the depth chart and limited other options in their respective pass games, could they combine for 6 catches, 50 yards and 2 TDs? That doesn’t seem crazy and that would give you (in addition to leverage on everyone that isn’t copying this lineup from this email) 23 points on your $6,200 investment.
Week 18 DK Ownership
WATCH: Week 18 DraftKings Own% + Leverage
RB
Jonathan Taylor
David Montgomery
Sony Michel
James Conner
Donta Foreman
Devin Singletary
WR
Cooper Kupp
Justin Jefferson
Darnell Mooney
Christian Kirk
Michael Pittman
TOOLS: Run The Sims Optimizer & Projections
TE
Zach Ertz
George Kittle
Cole Kmet
John Bates
Gerald Everett
QB
Kyler Murray
Taysom Hill
Josh Allen
DST
Bills
Browns
Week 18 Props
Make sure to use code “MMN” at Prize Picks to get a deposit match up to $100. So, deposit $100, get another $100 for nothing. Easy game.
PLAY AT PRIZE PICKS USING CODE “MMN”
REMINDER: TAKE ADVANTAGE of the MMN props contest by simply making a 5-pick entry (NO MNF PLAYERS) for $7.11. That amount qualifies it for the contest. ANDa bonus $50 given to anyone who plays an entry for $7.11 and gets all five picks correct. You’d get paid 10x for winning anyway, then another $50 bonus because you played an entry of $7.11. It’s the perfect bankroll builder. And yes, it’s still open in Week 18.
Or just lean on the computer to make the picks with its projections. You can customize the projections, or just roll out the base line. I assume you, it’s more accurate than me.
TOOLS: Run The Sims Optimizer, Simulations & Projections only $100 from now through the Super Bowl
— PM