Sony Open Finals Bets, Weather, DK Notes + NFL Wild Card Best Ball & Optimals
+ Friday AM LIVE SHOW
TLDR
Sony Open starts at 1200pm ET.
Keegan, Theegala, Clanton, Bobby Mac My Top Bets + FRL, long shots and props
NFL Projections and Top Plays ARE LIVE
We have a ton of different tools to help you for differen way to bet on golf.
Most DK Contest are almost full by 7pm Wed Night
HOT LINKS
Sony Open DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Bets & TGL Reactions
Sony Open Picks, Bets, One and Done + Sentry Recap
Sony Open Picks, Research, Preview, Odds Guesses
NFL Super Wild Card Spread Picks + Cust Corner: Costco Apartments, Party Food
2025 Sony Open Bets
WINNER
Bradley +3200
Theegala +3300
Clanton +4500
MacIntyre +4800
Cole +10000 (With 5 Places)
Dunlap +11000 (With 8 Places)
Lipsky +27500 (With 8 Places)
Top 20
Lipsky +550
Top Canadian
Taylor +800
FIRST ROUND LEADER
Kirk 60 (+ Top 5)
N. Taylor 100 (+ Top 5)
Lipsky 140 (+ Top 5)
Mitchell 140 (+ Top 5)
Montgomery 200 (+ Top 5) & Top 20 +700
ONE AND DONE
Mayo: Keegan
Geoff: Henley
Cust: English
Keegan Bradley +3200
Out to avenge his playoff loss from a year ago, Keegan T2G at Waialae over the years has been spectacular, gaining five or more strokes versus the field in five of the past six seasons. That same T2G excellence was on display art Kapalua over the weekend too. It seems to all just hinge on his flat stick. The Ryder Cup captain has at serious bouts of the struggles on the greens some years, others, like 2024, he finishes Top 10 in the field. Pray it’s one of the good years and Keegan will be firmly in the Sunday mix.
Sahith Theegala +3300
It’s kinda playing like the shits atm. But I bet him at a worse number in a stronger field last week, so I feel somewhat obliged to bet on the talent upside. That’s going to be a theme this week. At least Sahith got better with every round at Kapalua. MOMENTUM!!!!!
Luke Clanton +4500
In case you’re not familiar, Clanton has been one of the best amateurs to play on tour this millennium. He’s notched four Top 10s in seven PGA TOUR starts, and was T2 last time out at the RSM.
Robert MacIntyre +4800
Both his wins in 2024 came on Par 70s which makes total sense when you look at his stats from his past 36 rounds on tour. He’s third in the field on Par 4s, 5th on Par 4s measuring 400-450 yards, and is Top 15 in putting from both 5’-10’ and 10’-15’.
Eric Cole +10000 (With 5 Places)
No, Cole did not play particularly well at Kapalua. But did he play so poorly he’s now triple digits when he likely would have been in the Top 10 of favorites otherwise? No. No, he did not. Waialae is an Eric Cole course and the Sony is an Eric Cole field. He’s simply underpriced based on his previous odds and success in tournaments like this. Cole very much reminds of of the Kevin Na won Sony after coming 39/41 players at Sentry.
Nick Dunlap +11000 (With 8 Places)
There’s a chance I lose a lot of money on Dunlap this year. Because he’s going to finish near the bottom the field when he doesn’t have it in a given week. Then I’ll jump off and
David Lipsky +27500 (With 8 Places)
Lipsky’s not flying under the radar. The Radar can’t even detect him at this point. Sure, he loves a missed cut, hence why his odds are so long, but he’s generally has Top 10 upside when he’s not immediately out of a tournament. He’s finished Top 10 in three of last six starts, picked up his two best finishes in the 23/24 season at comp courses in Bermuda and Colonial and did have a T4 on this site in 2023.
I made an update to the power rankings from the Monday post (and we resolved the SG Data issue with Shot Link after a few stern emails) so here are the key stat power rankings over the past 36 rounds. As always, make your own at FN. You can see how I do it on the Sunday video.
POWER RANKINGS
Here are mine for Sony. Make your own easily at Fantasy National…
Get 20% all Tools, Stats, Custom Models at FantasyNational.com/mayo
ONE AND DONE
I genuinely want to thank everyone, especially all of you who helped share the word on the Mayo Cup one the past few weeks. Filling a contest with $1,000,000 guaranteed with your name on the banner is exciting… after it fills. Before that it is a great deal of stress. So it filling with 24 hours before it closed was a giant weight off me. I hope everything enjoys the contest, and one you is going to take home the $100K first prize. GOOD LUCK!!!! I do have a few FREE things for ya to help ya out (beyond letting you know Luke Clanton is an amateur and does not make money right now so don’t use him at the Sony Open)
I wrote a piece on some tips and general strategy
2025 ONE AND DONE STRATEGY & HOW TO PLAY
Fantasy National has a “Season Long Planner” tool in the top banner and lets you know who is officially committed to play in which tournaments. Very helpful for One and Done and upcoming best ball drafts.
Get 20% all Tools, Stats, Leaderboard APP at FantasyNational.com/mayo
And Byron said he would make a custom OAD tool if it filled early enough. AND HE DID!!!! It’s up FREE now on his patreon.
Byron’s FREE One and Done Tool
ORRRRRRR if you just wanna kick back, listen to people talk about golf and have a few laughs: Me, Geoff, Degen75 and Tambo did a season preview unlike any other. It’s out on the Video and Pod feeds now. It’s a great way to kill an hour.
PGA 2025: Bold Golf Predictions That Will SHOCK You!
NFL Underdog Best Ball
NFL Playoff drafts are happening as we speak. “The Gauntlet” is $25 per entry and $200,000 to first place. I’ll have a full strategy show Monday evening with an example draft and team review in case you want to tackle those.
I did a strategy show with NEZ Monday afternoon, and the strategy is pretty simple. And, according to him, who knows way more about this than I, most people in these drafts are absolute morons. I can confirm this after doing drafts since. Not bad for $200K up top. We also go pick-by-pick through a draft and review what each team right and wrong if you really want to get a full picture of what to do
NFL Playoff Best Ball Rankings, Team Stacks, Strategy | NFL Underdog Draft + Lineup Review
BUTTTTTT… what I’m really excited about is the potential for a RAKE FREE PME League which will be season long starting likely at the Waste Management. I’m trying to sell them on it hard and getting as many new sign ups to Underdog under code MAYO will likely get it for us. Everyone who did the ones last week before the Sentry all loved it, and one that is less reliant on random golfer is probably going to be more fun. Just need people to try it out. Also, code MAYO gets you up to $1,000 in bonus funds, which you can use to do all your drafts and have the rest left over for whatever else. Win/Win.
Use code “MAYO” at Underdog for a deposit bonus up to $1000
NFL DRAFTKINGS
I’m LIVE with Ben Rasa Friday morning on MMA talking through the strategy and picks for the six-game DraftKings slate in the NFL. So tune in starting at 10am ET if you have any questions.
For now, Justin Freeman from Run The Sims released the early DraftKings optimals rate for each position. The optimal rate was the % each player appeared in the highest scoring lineup after 10,000 simulations. Of course, with injuries to still be determined, this will change by lock Saturday. So, check the site for updates.
TOOLS: Run The Sims Lineup Builder, Projections, Opto, Simulations, Prop Sniper
Sony Open Weather
It doesn’t look there will be enough rain to put lift-clean-and-place into effect, so that’s a bonus. But it’s much windier than we usually get for this tournament. I added in SG: ATG into my power rankings model (see below) as I anticipate fewer GIRs to be hit than normal. But nothing so severe to impact my strategy for the week. Of note, based on the players I’ve talked to, they don’t actually mind a bit of wind as long as it is consistent with infrequent gusts, which looks like what we’re getting this week.
WIND TOWER: Waialae Beach Park / Oahu
Sony Open DraftKings
Tambo and I talked through different lineup strategies on the show Wednesday and when I put it into practice I ended up building two styles of lineups. One where had Henley as my most expensive player in my grouping all the way down to Frankie Capan in the mid-6000s. Then I build more lineups with Keegan as the higher priced player and no one cheaper than Chris Kirk at 7800. This was all made very easy by Fantasy National.
Get 20% all Tools, Stats, Custom Models with at FantasyNational.com/mayo
And finally…
A reason to FADE Hideki???
Of course Hideki should be favored, but churning out consecutive weeks with an elite putting effort is not something etched in the career achievements of last week’s winner. In his starts following a week where he gained 2 or more strokes putting, Hideki has failed to gain more than 1.5 in any event since the 2017 WGC Bridgestone (+3) then the 2017 PGA Championship (+4.5). Now, there are tournaments following some of those spike putting weeks, so who really know. But if you didn’t want to bet him or play him, this is one step beyond flimsy so I think it can work as a decent reason. Now watch him win losing three strokes on the greens.