Scottish/LIV Bets, Course Preview, UD RD1, Weather, DK Picks

+ Early Open Links

Jul 10, 2024

NOTE: Scottish Open Starts at 2am ET

BETS

Tommy Fleetwood — Like the rest often world, I’m betting Tommy now that we’re out of North America. In classic Fleetwood fashion, he’s been hilariously consistent in results with one part of his game lacking each start. One of these weeks he’ll get it together and not better event than in Scotland. Along with Tom Kim, Tommy’s the only player in the field with consecutive Top 10s at the Renaissance Club, making it three in four years after his playoff loss to Aaron Rai in 2020.

Aaron Rai — The Brit is averaging +6.5 SG: T2G over his past five starts. That’s led to four straight Top 20s and consecutive Top 10s. This feels like it will go one of two ways: He misses the cut by eleventy billion stroskes (I seem like I have experienced eleventy billion strokes after writing it that way) or Rai, in fantastic form, back on the British Isle, finally putting well, wins at the Renaissance Club for there second time. Probably over Fleetwood in a playoff again.

Hideki Matsuyama — The odds simply slipped too deep for me to pass. Look, I get Min Woo is popular this week, has great form, and has a win at Renaissance Club in his past, but seeing Hideki 20 points higher is just wrong. The market agreed as the number crashed back down to 40 very quickly. Still not a bad number.

Tom Hoge — With the wind projected to be down for the week, a sharp shooter like Hoge stands to be one of the bigger benefactors. In Hoge’s last outing at the Travelers he led all players by more than three strokes in approach en route to a T3 finish behind TK and Scottie. And, after missing the cut here in his 2022 debut, he rebounded with a T19 at The Renaissance Club a year ago. He’s in far better form entering play his year.

N. Hojgaard 100, Fox 100, Jordan Smith 125, Valimaki 225 — Piled up some of my favorite links specialists and hope for the best with the placements or sneak out a Sunday surprise.

The Rest

We’re throwing darts here, OK? It’s good form, good driving, or both.

UNDERDOG RD 1 PICK’EM

Tambo and I talked this one through on the show today.

Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $250 and tail this entry with this link.

Scottish Open Notes

156 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make The Cut
First Tee: Thursday, July 13
Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy

Key Stats

Strokes Gained: Approach
Opportunities Gained
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Par 3s Gained 200-215 Yards

Course

Course: Renaissance Club
Yards: 7,237
Par: 70
Greens: Fescue

Par 3's (5): Average distance -- 187 yards

-Two of the five holes in terms of highest over-par rate are 3's that clear 200 yards in length

-McIlroy won this event last season despite bogeying a Par 3 in all four rounds

Par 4's (10): Average distance -- 454 yards

-Four holes on the course own a double-or-worse rate of 2% ... they are all front-9 Par 4's

-McIlroy birdied each of the back-9 Par 4's throughout his win last season (including being one of the 3.8% to get #18 ... doing so on Sunday)

Par 5's (3): Average distance -- 590 yards

- The three easiest holes on property own three of the four lowest par rates on the course (Hole #3 is a gentle handshake at the beginning of your round ... 6.1% over-par rate is easily the lowest and the 1.9% eagle rate is the highest on the course)

- McIlroy took full advantage of the longest hole on the course, playing #3 at 5-under par last season (Round 1: eagle)

DK Streak

The vast majority of birdie streaks will come on the back-9 as it opens with seven straight holes that play easier than course average. The problem when mining for streaks is that both 9's end with teeth (both wrap with two of the five toughest holes on property). With Hole #10 being the second easiest on the course (33.6% birdie-or-better rate), playing the holes in order would be my lean, but it's nothing more than a tie-breaker and one that I'd prioritize well behind weather waves.

Past Winners

At Renaissance Club

2023: Rory McIlroy
2022: Xander Scheffele -7
2021: Min WOO Lee -18
2020: Aaron Rai -11
2019: Bernd Wiesberger -21

WINNER PROFILE

2023: Rory McIlory (-15, one clear of Robert MacIntyre)

-His best round came on Thursday (three off the pace) and while his scores progressively got worse, he was able to hang on (Bobby Mac picked up four shots on Sunday)

He entered play in elite form with five straight top-10 finishes entering (T-7 at Travelers his most recent event prior to this win)
Tom Kim (T6) and Tommy Fleetwood (T6) are the only two players to finish in the top 10 in each of the last two years of the Genesis Scottish Open; Kim finished solo-third in 2022 and Fleetwood finished T4

2022: Xander Schauffele (-7, one clear of Kurt Kitayama)

- He was 11 back after Thursday, but his 65 on Friday and 66 on Saturday were both the best on the course in that round

- He entered play in elite form with five straight top-20 finishes (a win at Travelers his most recent event prior to this win)

2021: Min Woo Lee (-18, playoff win over Thomas Detry and Matt Fitzpatrick)

- He had one top-20 finish for the season prior to this win ... it came at the Irish Open, his lead-in event

2020: Aaron Rai (-11, playoff win over Tommy Fleetwood)

2019: Bernd Wiesberger (-22, playoff win over Benjamin Herbert)

--> Both Rory ('23) and Xander ('22) finished top 15 at The Open the week following this Win

Top of the board at the Scottish Open last season and where they finished at The Open

Rory (1st followed by T-6)
MacIntyre (2nd followed by T-71)
David Lingmerth (T-3 followed by T-68)
Scottie Scheffler (T-3 followed by T-23)
Benny An (T-3 followed by T-23)
Nicolai Hojgaard (T-6 followed by T-23)
Tyrell Hatton (T-6 followed by T-20)
JT Poston (T-6 followed by T-41)
Tommy Fleetwood (T-6 followed by T-10)
Tom Kim (T-6 followed by T-2)

Scottish Open Weather

WATCH: Scottish Open DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Final Bets, Weather, One & Done

Tambo and I build some PM only lineups in case in this forecast comes true and the PM wave Thursday gets a very receptive course with little wind. But it’s Scotland, so any forecast likely won’t hold. One can dream, though.