Rocket Mortgage Preview, Bets, Course, Stats + THE CUSTYS
THE CUSTYS!!!!!
They’re Out. Enjoy
WATCH: 7th Annual Custy Awards (2024)
PICKS SHOW!!!!!!
I took an extra day off coming back from overseas, but don’t fret, Geoff and I HAVE RETURNED to make make our bets, recap last week and talk through the wheel of losers for Rocket Mortgage.
WATCH: Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks, Bets, One and Done | 2024 Travelers Recap | LIV Nashville Recap
2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Field
156 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make The Cut
First Tee: Thursday, June 27
Defending Champion: Rickie Fowler
Key Stats
Opportunities Gained
Eagles Gained
SG: Off the Tee
Par 4s Gained 350-400 Yards
Putting 5-15 Feet
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UNDERDOG RD 1
I’ll put together a full Thursday with Rasa on Wednesday, but this was my initial gut call on the opening board. That link (or simply using code MAYO to depsoit) will also get you in the draw to WIN TAMBO’S MONEY. He’s giving away 5% of his winnings this week at the DK World Champion in Detroit.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $250 and tail this entry with this link.
Course: Detroit Golf Club
Yardage: 7,370
Par: 72
Greens: Bentgrass (with Poa)
Number of Sand Bunkers: 87
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 1
Par 3's (4): Average Distance - 192 yards
-The two longest Par 3's come over a three-hole stretch (Holes 9-11) and are two of the four toughest on property (both with a sub-12% birdie rate)
- Rickie bogeyed both #9 and #11 in the first round last year (he figured them out -- he played them at -1 over the next three days)
Par 4's (10): Average Distance - 429 yards
-You get the two easiest Par 4's right away (Holes 1 and 3) with #18 being the second toughest hole on the course (20.7% over par rate)
-The 18th wasn't a problem for Rickie last season (-2 for the week) while he played Holes 1-3 (all Par 4's) at 5-under for the week.
Par 5's (4): Average Distance - 580yards
-The four easiest holds on the course, with three of them coughing up eagles at least 1.9% of the time (all have a sub-8% bogey rate, but hole #14 does at least have the potential to be a problem with a 1.9% double-or-worse rate, second highest on the course)
-In Rounds 1 and 3 last season, Rickie birdied all four of these holes (that doesn't include him going birdie-eagle on the Back-9 Par 5's on Friday)
DK Streak
This course is going to surrender plenty of scoring chances. but asking a player to do it for three straight holes at the end of either nine is a tall ask. If you play the course in order, you run into three of the five toughest holes from Holes 9-12. Going the other direction gives you a slightly better chance (#17 is the easiest on the course and #1 is a gettable Par 4 at under 400 yards with a 24.5% birdie rate), but that means you have to birdie #18, the second toughest hole on the course (it can be done, but you're 52.2% more likely to score over par than under).
Past Winners
2023: Rickie Fowler -24
2022: Tony Finau -26
2021: Cam Davis -18
2020: Bryson DeChambeau -23
2019: Nate Lashley -25
2023: Rickie Fowler -24 (playoff win over Adam Hadwin and Collin Morikawa)
-All three of the top finishers shot 68-or-better in all four rounds with Rickie doing his damage in the middle of the tournament (two shots better than Hadwin from Friday through Saturday and five better than Morikawa)
-The top five putters for the week all cashed top-10 paychecks (Hadwin picked up 9.8 strokes putting to help offset losing 3.4 off the tee ... he was ninth worst in the field OTT)
2022: Tony Finau -26 (five clear of Patrick Cantlay, Taylor Pendrith, and Cam Young)
-Finau and Pendrith were tied for the FRL after firing matching 64's ... the duo was tied entering Sunday (Finau: 67, Pendrith: 72). Cantlay was six off the pace after Thursday, but was one better than Finau the rest of the way.
-The four best golfers in terms of Par 5 scoring all finished the week 6th or better on the final leaderboard
2021: Cam Davis -18 (playoff win over Troy Merritt and Joaquin Niemann)
-Davis shot 67-68 in all four rounds and was one of six golfers to not card a 70+ for the entire week
-Davisn't wasn't a top-15 putter for the week, but he ranked inside the top-10 both in approach and around the green play
2020: Bryson DeChambeau -23 (three clear of Matthew Wolff)
-Bryson was one off the pace after a Thursday 66 and his 65 on Sunday was the best on the course (he entered the day three back of Wolff who shot a 71)
-Bryson was the best off the tee AND with the flat stick for the week ... not a bad combo!
-For what it's worth, the top-3 finishers all lost in proximity from 200+ but gained from 100-125 yards out
2019: Nate Lashley -25 (six clear of Doc Redman)
-Lashley's 63 on Thursday was tied for the best of the week ... and he did it again on Saturday. Lashley's coasting to the finish line on Sunday was the only time a top-4 finisher this year didn't card a round in the 60's
-Each of the top 20 finishers were a net positive in putting from 5-15 feet (Lashley gained 6.3 strokes from 5-10 and another 2.9 from 10-15)
2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Notes
Now that the Pete Dye portion of the schedule has been completed, we move on to the Donald Ross phase. With Detroit moving a month ahead on the schedule this year, the Ross course won’t be played in rapid succession like other years. Ross courses include:
Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage)
Sedgefield CC (Wyndham Championship)
East Lake GC (TOUR Championship)
The Rocket Mortgage Classic is an amalgamation of both courses at Detroit Golf Club. There has been some re-routing for the tournament, including using a hole from the South Course. The South’s first hole will function as the tournament’s third hole and will be played from the North Course’s first hole tee box. Meanwhile, the regular eighth and ninth holes will be No. 1 and No. 2 for the tournament.
One of the most generous courses on TOUR off the tee, the field has hit over 50% of its drives over 300 yards at Detroit Golf Club while finding the short grass at a 65% clip. Unsurprisingly, this is where Bryson tested out the strategy that resulted in him hoisting the cleverly named U.S. Open Trophy later in 2020. Bryson became the first PGA TOUR winner to lead the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (+6.7) and Strokes Gained: Putting (+7.8) during the ShotLink era. And yes, Bryson also led the field in Driving Distance (351 yards)
It was unclear at the time whether or not this strategy would hold up or if it was just a Bryson thing. But in the two years since, big gains driving has proven a pathway for typically poor iron players to find success. As long as the putting comes with it.
Despite its 7,370 yards in total, Detroit Golf Club is actually much shorter. I talk every year about Riviera having hidden distance because of elevation and a lot of yardage saved on one Par 4 and the Par 5s, but DGC is kind of the opposite. There are four Par 4s measuring between 450 and 500 yards, but since the average driving distance is around 300 yards, those holes don’t actually play that long. Add on three of the four Par 5s which can’t protect themselves from eagles, and you have an average approach distribution that resembles the Travelers from last week, a course that came in just over 6,800 yards. The majority of approaches will be coming from 175 yards and in — that’s scoring time. Hence why the winning score has been well into the -20s three of the four years of this event’s existence.
Easier courses can allow more of the field to challenge for a win. There’s a reason the U.S. Open leaderboard is a who’s who of elite names while the Byron Nelson is an event where no one can run down KH Lee. So, using Fantasy National Golf Club, and sorting by “Easy Relative to Par” over the past 24 rounds, you’ll find …
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DK LINEUP HISTORY
2022: Was this the best result of the season for those who go stars and scrubs? It’s possible … of the top-seven on the final DK leaderboard, three cost over $10,000 and the other four cost you no more than $7,500 (three priced under $7,000)
2021: Three of the four players priced over $10,000 failed to make the cut and the one expensive guy who made it through? Patrick Reed finished 32nd on the overall leaderboard and was worse than that in terms of DK points.
2020: DeChambeau cashed in as the most expensive golfer in the field ($11,700) and headed a stars/scrubs week. Of the nine players who scored 100 DK points for the week, two cost over $10,500 and five were sub-$7,000.
2019: Four of the seven highest priced golfers failed to play the weekend and the most expensive option to make the cut didn’t pay it off (Rickie Fowler finished T-46).
Of the top-14 DK scores for the week, only four were priced at $7,500 or higher.
Bets So Far
Fox 55
Hojgaard 60
Knapp 100 (+8 Places)
Novak 100 (+8 Places)
Pierceson Coody (+8 Places)
Will likely be adding Mitchell soon. Waiting on the best munber. 45/1 is top atm.