Rocket Mortgage BETS
Max Homa - A course set up like Detroit GC will allow for more variance throughout the field. Unlike the 3M Open, with so much water and long iron play, the Rocket Mortgage Classic is essentially a wedge and putting contest. Two skills that don’t require a full-fledged T2G green game. So when assessing the top of the board, only two names truly fit that bill: Patrick Cantlay and Max Homa. Over the past 50 rounds, there’s no player better across the key metrics than Homa. Plus, he’s a better price in both the betting market and on DraftKings.
Alex Smalley — Fresh off three Top 25 finishes across his past four starts, Smalley’s week will likely be determined by his flat stick. It’s certainly not consistent, but he has stretches where it’s great and ones where it’s the topic of a Foreigner track. Hopefully, we catch him on a putting heater. Additionally, Smalley’s a member at next week’s Sedgefield Country Club, another Donald Ross design. So hopefully, his familiarity with Ross’ contours and strategy can be a hidden advantage.
Chesson Hadley — Putting faith in Hadley is always terrifying, but he’s cashed this Top 10 in three of his past five starts and rolls into Detroit with the wedges and putting to get over the hump.
Even did some PRIZE PICKS for some Thursday action, to go along with the picks for UFC 277 from Dog or Pass this week.
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WATCH: UFC 277 Picks, Bets, Predictions
NFL
If you’ve been sticking with this newsletter through the football season, THANK YOU! And, as a reward, you get a nice little NFL gambling graphic. A look at the past three seasons (the goofy COVID season is in there, so wanted two “normal” seasons in the sample) to two-year sets prior. Favorites tend to be the public side … but those close game underdogs are the way to go
LIST: 2022 RB Rankings
2022 PME Fantasy Draft Guide… So Far
Injury Risk Factor Rankings
RB RANK Tiers Part 3
RB RANK Tiers Part 2
RB RANK Tiers Part 1
WR RANKS MIDDLE TIERS
WR RANKS TOP TIERS
Confusing Offesnes
Stacks & W17 Correlations
2022 Best Ball Strategy
WR Busts + HYPE Players
Intro to Fantasy Football
NFL TOOLS & PROJECTIONS
You’re going to want the Run The Sims membership by the time football season starts. So make the smart move and save yourself money NOW before the price goes up. Also, code “MAYO” gets you an additional 10% off the early bird price
NFL TOOLS: Code “MAYO” for an extra 10% Off
THE TIDBITS
GALAXY BRAIN: Finding A Hot Putter
Over time, we’ve seen a variety of skill sets excel at this event, but the flat stick needs to run hot in a birdie fest like this. It just does. It makes our job difficult given the variance week-over-week when it comes to putting, but that doesn’t mean I’m not going to try!
What we know about putting … grass type has some stickiness to it and the 5-15 foot range is critical. When you use Fantasynational, you can easily sort by putting surface and distance … gold!
TOOLS: 20% Off Fantasy National Tools & Stats
Stick with me here. These are the nine guys who, over their past 24 rounds on Bent grass …
Gain SG:P in 50% of rounds
Gain SG:P in the 10-15 foot range in 50% of rounds
Gain SG: P in the 5-10 foot range in 55% of rounds
You know I bet Max Homa and Cam Davis at this event, neither comes cheap on the DFS side of things. But with six guys highlighted here under $8,000 you can easily piece together a viable GPP lineup that is stars-and-scrubby. If you’re going down the board …
Scott Stallings: You know why a guy with 3 top-10 finishes in his last six events is sub-8k? Because he missed the cut in the other three events. So yea, there’s significant risk here. No two ways about it. BUT … he has gained with the putter in five of his past six measured events and has gained more than 3.5 strokes on approach in consecutive events for the first time since 2018.
Hank Lebioda: he’s gained strokes putting in three straight (he had gained in three of his previous 10) and is coming off of his best SG:APP week since August of 2020 (Wyndham). He place 4th at this event last season because he solved the greens (+6.1 strokes), so who is to say he can’t do it again?
Weather
This reminds me a lot of last week where the morning isn’t perfect Thursday, but it looks way better than the afternoon. At a course this easy, I’m certain there will be enough from the PM/AM wave that it won’t end up making a massive difference, but the very early Thursday AM crew definitely has the best advantage of either of the first two days. I played 25/75 lineups with only players teeing off before 830am ET.
WIND TOWER FOR ROCKET MORTGAGE
DRAFTKINGS OWNERSHIP (aka guesses)
Here’s who I got from oover 15% right now
WATCH: DraftKings Ownership & Pivot Plays
Cantlay
Homa
Young
Davis
Finau
Riley
Kirk
Stallings
Hubbard
McNealy
Zalatoris
— PM