Rocket Mortgage Bets, DraftKings, Cheatsheets
BETS
Keep it tight this week at a course which is a wedge and putting contest. I really could have added another 5-7 names down the board, but I’m trying to limit the damage of a Finau repeat which will wipe the board on me.
WATCH: Rocket Mortgage FInal Bets & One and Done
Rickie Fowler — The win has been brewing since the beginning of the season, and Rickie has finally decided to player against weaker competition. This iteration of the RMC is actually stronger than previous years, but Fowler has only played in two non-Majors or elevated events since January, both Top 10 finishes. This is lining up a lot like when Jason Day notched his long overdue win at Bryon Nelson two months ago.
Ludvig Aberg — There are actually few recently-turned pros lingering in Detroit with gigantic upside, yet it appears like we’ve all decided Aberg is the best in class. And I agree. He gives off big Hovland vibes to me, with his prodigious driving. I doesn’t seem like his game is all the way there to claim a title across the board, but it’s realistic he can follow the Bryson blueprint in 2020 if things break his way. He’s going to be a leader in the field off the tee. That’s essentially a given at this point. If he can have a spike putting week, he may not need to all that sharp on his approaches.
JJ Spaun — After a momentary lapse with the driver at Oak Hill and Colonial (two accuracy based courses btw), Spaun has rebounded nicely off the tee averaging almost +0.8 SG:OTT in six rounds since; all elevated field events. The irons are hit and miss, while the putter has been downright cold. Gaining strokes vs the field just once in sev en starts since the PLAYERS. But that’s about the same on his lead up form the past few years heading into the Rocket Mortgage, a course where he’s never lost strokes with the flat stick in four appearances, gaining over 4 strokes putting in three of them.
Alex Smalley & Aaron Eckroat — They’re playing well coming in and the odds seemed good for this field. That’s all I got.
CT PAN — More below
Over 74 players under par — It seems like this wager may have come to an end this week. It opened at +225, I nabbed it at +175, it was down to -110 Monday afternoon and now it’s gone. Over 100 players finished under par each of the past 2 years at this event, and it seems like these may be the softest conditions yet. This has been a winning wager every time we’ve played it this year, so I hope the last one is good to us. I hope you got in when I tweeted about it Monday morning.
THE TIDBITS
Per usual, Tambo has rounded up the best of free content this week and put it all into one, helpful thread for you. Remember to shoot him a follow as well.
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WEATHER
Nothing obvious stands out from a PM/AM split over the first two days. There are some lingering concerns however. If the rain expected late Friday moves up, then there could potentially be a delay leading to extra soft conditions on an already simply track. Additionally, there are air quality concerns from the wildfire in Quebec which, currently, don’t seem like they’ll affect play, you never know with these things, though. If there was a lean it would be AM/PM lineups, but I didn’t go out of my way to construct that way.
WIND TOWER: Hamtramck
DraftKings
Tambo and I talked through lineup strategy this week, and which chalk to eat and where to pivot.
WATCH: RMC DraftKings Picks, Lineups & Ownership
One name I really started to dig as we did the show was CT Pan. I may have foolishly called him “wildly under priced” for the week at $7,200, but I do think he is too cheap. Wildly so? Maybe not so much. Just kinda.
The Panimal returned from injury at the Heritage in April, the week following the Masters and promptly MC’d. Things weren’t much better in his second start at Quail Hollow in terms of results, another MC, however he improved by a stroke per round off the tee, chipping, and putting. Then he’s all over the Byron Nelson and Canadian Open leaderboard with T4 and T3 finishes before missing the cut last week outside Hartford. Now, he’s forgotten.
Seems slightly short sighted. Even in an elevated field he managed to gain over a 0.5 SG:OTT/round, but just bombed everywhere else. It’s been established throughout his career his iron play is spotty, but losing over 6 strokes around the greens is just an outlier. Take a look as his numbers in his five starts and see if you can find the different between elevated and non-elevated fields.
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Tour Average player is much better in weak field rather than strong ones. Thanks, Pat. I get that. But the more I hear about “Comp Courses” this week, the more I hear about Donald Ross designs, primarily Sedgefield. So, here’s where it gets interesting with Pan. He’s been a runner up the Wyndham, and never missed a cut in 4 starts. And the primary comp courser to Sedgefield is Harbour Town, where Pan actually won. In 11 combined starts between those two courses, he’s lost strokes on approach once.
If these courses secretly all actually fit together that seamlessly, the driving is on point atm, he’ll more than rebound of a career worst chipping week, and has actually gained 4 strokes per start on his last two events on Bentgrass. If you can flip those irons to match everything else, Pan is live.
— PM