With the Viewer Chat (unless you include this) content is wrapped up on golf for the week.
If you missed anything, it’s here
Picks & One and Done Show
DraftKings Picks Show
Heritage Research Show
Picks & Course Article
DraftKings Cheatsheet
And, of course, if you didn’t watch today’s show, it’s here
Or just download it on the podcast feed if that’s your jam. If you have any more questions about The Heritage, leave them in comment section on the YouTube video. I’ll be mass answering them at 9pm ET if something pops in your mind.
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HERITAGE DRAFTKINGS
I built 21 lineups this week (well, 22 when include the “Play the Best Plays” Lineup Reid and I discussed at the end of the DraftKings Picks show), and three players in the 6K range got left behind: Brandt Snedeker, Chez Reavie and Russell Knox. So expect one of those guys to win now.
Instead of worrying about ownership this week, I just decided to fade the whole $9,000 range. I figured since I constantly lose anyway, may as well switch things up. When I cash BIGLY at this event the year Kodaira won I actually took the opposite strategy and didn’t use a singe player above $10,000. This week, I went heavy on DJ, Cantlay, and Morikawa. Most lineups start with two of these three. And yes, I hedged out my week with a parlay where all three of them miss the cut.
For Ownership, expect Webb, Fitzpatrick, and Ancer to lead the way all around and above 20% in large GPPs. Pushing the upper teens will be Harman, Hoffman, Si WOOOOOO, Morikawa, Kirk, and Berger. Of the cheap guys, Grillo, Ghim, Thompson, and NeSmith I’d anticipate around 7-12%, while Patton Kizzire at $6,500 may carry 4/5/6% from the scrubs. Nothing significant enough to to get worried about.
HERITAGE BETS
And if that one doesn’t lose, I have a bunch more losing bets for ya.
Essentially, the card is Morikawa or bombs. I through on Si WOOOOO because I have FOMO with Si WOOOOOO and just wouldn’t want to miss out… again. After that, I’m just hoping to get a long shot or two into the mix come Sunday. There’s been a history of comebacks at this course on Sunday, so saving a bullet or two on someone with deeper odds before round four kicks off is the move if all your guys are out of it. It came down to a coin flip between Morikawa and Berger for me (because I wanted to bet a bunch of 125/1+ players) and in that H2H I’m always going to side with my guy Morikawa. He’s just been so generous to the bank account the last year.
I get that it seems crazy I bet on 10 guys, but this is where the “you'Ve beT On EVERY PLAYer In THe fiElD” crowd really get confused. I say it was a choice between Berger and those guys because lets say I wanted everyone to pay $2000 if they win. It would cost me $90 on Berger at 22/1 or $78 total dollars on the six jabronis from 125/1+. (Yes, the each ways throw that off a bit, I’m aware, but I’m trying to make it simple). in sooth, the better move was probably to bet Berger, but we’ll see.
We’re starting the GAMBLING MOVIE CLUB very soon, starting with “Owning Mahowny” (Which you can watch on YouTube if you can’t find a better version). In the movie the Casino Boss says about Mahowny, “You know why he wants to win? So he has enough money to lose.” I’ve never felt more seen.
Oh, I switched to Morikawa in the show OAD because I’d already used Berger it turned out. Someday we’ll pay attention to this stuff before the show actually begins.
UFC BETS
The UFC card is absolute dog shit this week. Doesn’t mean money can’t be made, tho. Cody and Paul go through every fight and talk their fav bets and props, and Cody goes through it all at the end
Cody tweets out his top plays on Saturday. Well, he does most of the time. Sometimes he forgets what time the card starts. It happens. Follow him here.
HERITAGE BETTING ODDS
Over at DraftKings Sportsbook…
It still blows my mind to see Webb favored over DJ. That’s not the case on other books btw. I couldn’t get my hands on the DKSB handle this week, but I’m guessing there’s a lot of Webb action. After that, everyone else odds on this board are pretty awful. I’d say, value wise, Morikawa, Berger, Hatton or Sergio are the tops of the bunch. I’m not saying he can’t win, but I cannot imagine loading up my app and wagering on Brian Harman to win a golf tournament at 30/1. And this is from someone who wagered on Patton Kizzire this week. Kizzire and the Ghim Reaper have already been bet down to 100/1 on DKSB btw.
NFL DRAFT + FANTASY
Thursday morning at 6am ET an NFL Draft Guide show will drop on all Video and Podcast feeds. Me and Jeff Ratcliffe bickered about the draft, potenital trades, and the Fantasy fall out of the latest trades and signings. Be on the lookout for that. And remember to click and/or download even if you have no fucking interest. Helps me out.
If you know you’re going to be buying an NFL package of some sort, I’d get in on the FTN deal right now. It’s $349.99 for the year and that includes access to Season Long Fantasy, Daily Fantasy and Bets. It combines all three sites into one. Plus, it includes the 2021 NFL Draft Guide with alllllll the player comps and scouting breakdown which sells on it’s own for $50.
And here’s the rub.
If you use this link, click over to NFL ALL ACCESS then enter code “MAYO” at check out, it brings it down to $315 for the year. Expensive. Absolutely. But it’s going to be like $650 by the time the summer comes around so this is the best time to buy it if you’re going to anyway.
GIVEAWAYS
I don’t even have one of these hats. I think this is a template we’ll be using for the giveaways going forward, so give us a hand and test it out. May get ya $50 and a v1.0 MMN hat.
HERITAGE WEATHER & NOTES
I’m using this weather tower to track the elements at Harbour Town.
Thursday looks like there will be giant gusts all day, far higher than the average mph. Looks to be a lean to the AM wave if you want to go that route. I got lazy and didn’t bother.
The rest of the tournament show two projected nice and easy days and a bunch of rain Saturday. If that actually comes to fruition, the third round may get pushed into Sunday morning, or they’ll start Saturday as early as possible. Check back in on what the PGA is thinking after the cut if you’re one of the people who likes to wake up and kill time Saturday morning making DK Lineups or Bets. You may wake up and the players may already be on the course.
Writing and doing research is so much easier when guys like PGA Spilts start to dig in. You can follow him here, and I wanted to share his best notes of the week.
CUST
Finally, Cust is almost at 10K followers on Twitter. That’s terrifying. Here’s why. After going on about PXG clubs for months now, he told us this in the DMs
SOLD
— PM