RBC Heritage Bets, DK Ownership
Cheatsheets, Weather + USFL Tools
Abraham Ancer and Sebastiabn Munoz have both pulled out in case you missed that. Matthias Schwab has replaced Munoz in the field. As of this writing he has NOT been added to the DK player pool, however, if he is, and is under $7200, I actually like him quite a bit at this course. The Top 20/30/40 odds should solid too. He’s been playing well, minus the driving, which we know is not a huge knock here, take a look…
Tambo and I talked through our strategies on the Wednesday show and I went through my thought process for the this middle range, which I ended up peppering. It’s a play on, what I think, is great value at this venue and some prayers one of the studs doesn’t simply demolish this place.
As I explained on the show, I’m off the first round leader train for a while. It’s been a money pit for me and I need to come up with a new strategy. It once worked fantastically, now, not so much. So back to the lab until further notice.
Daniel Berger — The weekend didn’t go well for Berger at Augusta, however, he’s back bread and butter type event at Harbour Town. He’s averaging 1.4 SG: TOTAL per round over his past 24 rounds on Pete Dye tracks, and is the best player in the field on courses measuring under 7,200 yards.
Kevin Na — Na’s posted four Top 10 finishes in his last seven starts at The Heritage accompanied by three missed cuts. Classic, Na. He advanced from his group at the Match Play and followed it up leading all players in approach at The Masters en route to a T14 finish. Plus, if you look at the three closes comp course: Sony, Colonial, and Wyndham, Na has a win at the first two, and has never finished outside the Top 10 in three starts at Sedgefield.
Kevin Kisner — A scan of his recent stats reveal a player who his surviving solely on chipping and putting, having lost on approach on three consecutive events. However, shot link data isn’t widely accessible for the Match Play for The Masters. Kisner lost in the final of the Match Play and despite a horrendous Sunday at Augusta National, was still ninth in approach for the week.
I was able to grab Kisner and Na at open at much better prices than you can find now, and honestly, I don’t think I’d play them in the 40s with the other names like Billy Ho, Kokrak, and Si WOOOOO 10 to 20 points deeper now.
In lieu of the first round leaders, I took some shots down the board at alt pricees with extended each ways. This feature is available at Bet365 if you’re looking for. I just can’t quit HIGGO.
2022 HERITAGE CONTENT HUB
USFL STARTS SATURDAY
I’ll have a USFL primer sometime on Thursday afternoon, but NOW is the moment to seize a potential advantage against the field by using computers. DraftKings is offering $100K to first in their big opening weekend USFL contests, and frankly, 90% of people putting in entries don’t have a clue who anyone is. I include myself in that 90%.
However, my partner at Run The Sims, Justin Freeman has just driven 11 hours to Alabama to do some first hand scouting for the depth charts, and we’ve build out the tools to create projections and optimize lineups. That’s dedication.
The Run the Sims package is $99 for the USFL season, it will include an optimizer, lineup builder, simulator, projections, and player prop tool. Code “MAYO” hets you 10% off as well. The simulations have been terrific for these small, niche sports and we’re hoping the tools can help us take advantage. There’s also FREE F1 projections for each race is you’re interested in that too.
The tools will be live on Friday for the Saturday LOCK. We needed to go rebuild the optimizer and showdown optimizer based on the positions that DraftKings is offering for the game, Unlike normal NFL lineups, it’s 1QB,1RB,2WR/TE,2FLEX,DST so we needed to rebuild the system. It will be ready, though.
Come take advantage!
HERITAGE EXTRA RESEARCH
It’s only natural to experience some letdown the week following The Masters: the hype isn’t the same, the coverage (certainly) isn’t the same and the field pales in comparison. But you know what? Betting tickets still cash and 6/6 lineups are still profitable … and that’s what we care about around these parts.
Last season, the top-8 finishers on the week end leaderboard gained an average of 71.2 yards in proximity on the field from that 175-200-yard range. In 2020, the top-7 finishers gained an average of 94.8 yards in proximity of the field in that same range. Interesting. So who is consistently throwing darts from that range? Here are players that have gained strokes in at least 65% of rounds over their past 50:
1. Tom Hoge: 72%
2. Sebastian Munoz: 70% (WD)
3. Erik Van Rooyen and Justin Thomas: 68%
5. Collin Morikawa, Henrik Norlander, Troy Merritt and Matthew NeSmith: 66%
OK, so that’s something to run with. How about we look at another trend? A season ago, five of the top-12 finishers lost strokes either ARG or with the flat stick (includes a T-9 from Webb Simpson after losing in both categories). In 2020, five of the top-7 finishers lost strokes either ARG or with the putter (includes a 2nd place finish from Abe Ancer after losing in both categories).
Now we could be onto something. Or maybe not. But it would appear that short game prowess and elite finishing position are as tied to one another at this event as others. With that thought in mind, let’s go over to FantasyNational and simply take a look at players that are top-25 in SG:T2G over their past 50 rounds BUT have a negative (red) grade in either ARG or P over that stretch. The idea here being that we can fall in love with a skill set and potentially get license to overlook one flaw in our quest for win equity.
Luke List: 1st in tee-to-green, 129th in putting
Collin Morikawa: 6th in tee-to-green, 105th in putting
Corey Conners: 8th in tee-to-green, 103rd in around-the-green
Russell Knox: 14th in tee-to-green, 122nd in putting
Aaron Wise: 16th in tee-to-green, 106th in putting
Adam Svensson: 19th in tee-to-green, 123rd in putting
Sebastian Munoz: 23rd in tee-to-green, 115th in putting
Si Woo Kim: 24th in tee-to-green, 109th in putting
If you’ve listened to even one of my podcasts over the past, I don’t know, decade or so, this list holds some familiar names. So yea, I’m ready to lose some money this week. I’m not sure that a roster full of these guys is your best bet (I’m all for stat stacks, but those usually work best with stats that players possess, not ones they lack), but I think there’s as good a shot this week as any that a member (or two) of team no-putt finds himself in a lineup that results in life-changing money. I’ve given you the data and a short list … now you have to choose right!
*One more interesting note from last season. There were 16 players that graded out well above the rest of the field in GIRs and eight of them picked up at least 10 yards off the tee on the field. Here are the finishing positions for those eight: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 7th, 9th, 13th, 18th and 25th. Not too shabby. Luke List, Patrick Cantlay and Mito Pereira are three players that pop a bit when looking at only GIR and driving distance numbers.
Over the past 24 Rounds. Or make your own at Fantasy National
It looks like it may play slightly easier in the pm on Thursday, but not enough for me to go out of my way to stack weather waves this week.
HERITAGE DK OWNERSHIP
Based on how the ownership is shaking out, expect a lot of people to load up on the $9K as a starting point and hammer the mid and upper $7Ks. This should leave the 10K+ much lower owned than anticipated. Except maybe Morikawa. I had no plans on making JT lineups, but that’s looking like a smart move with the deprecated ownership
My Owenrship Guesses
Now that you’ve read this, get some more info with Tambos Tidbits!