PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS Monday Edition
Weather, Pros/Cons + DK Ownership Guesses
Help us out, and sub, OK?
Since we chatted last night Bryson DeChambeau (WRIST) and Kevin Na (KIDZ) was withdrawn from the tournament. Also, I still don’t think Webb is health. OH, you can catch me on The RINGER’S Fairway Rollin’ this week too. If you need more pods with me on it.
Per usual during big weeks, I’m offering up cash giveaways in exchange for some audio ratings and reviews. Discoverability is nearly impossible on Apple and Spotify but the more ratings and reviews we can get the more people will find the show, which in turn means more shows!
Leave a 5-star rating and review for the Pat Mayo Experience audio podcast (Sub to it too btw), and leave your twitter handle or email in the review so I can contact you if you win. Even if you’ve done this before, update your old one or leave a new one to get in draw. I’m giving three lucky people $100. We’ll announce the winners on Wednesdays LIVE show.
I’ll also be giving away almost $2K in tickets and such on Twitter this week too. I’ll make sure to embed them in the daily newsletter in case you carte not to follow but want some free shit.
The FREE DK Ticket giveway to the Milly Maker will drop 12pm ET on Tuesday on @ThePME twitter. I know this because that’s my Twitter account and I’ve already scheduled the tweet.
UPDATE… Here it is
I’ve done my best to be patient this week. Apparently, it’s not necessary to make every bet you’re going to make the moment the odds get dropped on Monday morning (who knew). I’m struggling on two fronts.
Which range to attack to lose all my money
I do have some more clarity after talking it through with Fienberg.
One thing we both agreed on was Brooks’ opening number of 50/1 was too good to pass on. So for now, the betting card looks this way…
15/1 BOOSTED 18/1
Brooks 50/1 (With Top 8 each way)
Noren 125/1 (With Top 8 each way)
Power 150/1 (With Top 8 each way)
You know I’m going to bet Si WOOOOOOO at 100, so pencil that one in. After that, I’m really torn. Seeing Rahm at 14/1 is really jarring and has thrown me for a loop. I expected him to open at 8/1 and work his way back to 10/1. He is in some spots, but in others he’s behind Justin Thomas. I’m not always the best talent evaluator, but in my mind Rahm and Morikawa are best players in the world with GAP between them and the next 5-10 guys. Obviously, that doesn’t mean they are going to win. But I do think these odds properly reflect their chances, where everyone else at the top end is somewhat over priced.
I’m still considering two of Cantlay/Berger/Smith/Lowry/Burns if I don’t go Rahm. And how best to get action on Hadwin, Hoge, Dahmen, List, Todd, and Mito. I doubt it’s in the outright market; Top 40s seem more sensible. But I’m not sensible. It’s a conundrum.
SEASON LONG CONTEST vs MAYO
If you want a change of pace for Fantasy Golf I HAVE A SOLUTION!!!!! Fan Team has a season-long contest starting at THE PLAYERS with €5K to first and €25K in the prize pool. You draft a team of 10 for the season and play six players per week from now through the Wyndham Championship. You can make a few add/drops throughout the season and can completely blow it up and redraft once during the year. I suggest you read all the rules however. It’s a really cool format and it allows you to take me one week after week for only $25 with over $5K going to first place.
It’s available to Euros, Canadians, and Americans in like half of the states. Plus, if use code “MMN” at deposit, you’ll get a FREE ENTRY into their €10K PLAYERS DFS contest too. So, deposit $25 using code “MMN” and take a shot at a free roll for THE PLAYERS. You can even use Fantasy National to make your Fan Team DFS picks now too. It’s really a no brainer. ANDDDDDD if you use code “MMN” you’ll get your ticket into the players, and get into a draw with the others who’ve used code “MMN” to get a bunch of FREE ENTRIES into their big mponey Masters contest in a month.
I’m going to recuirt some of the show regualrs to play in the season long contest with me, and you can see who you beat. I won’t reveal my entrie squad but here’s who I’m rolling out at Sawgrass along with my Captian and Underdog player. (You select your captian, and your underdog is your lowest priced player. They both score 1.25x). Scoring is almost the same as DK scoring if you were wondering.
Remember, you’re drafting a team for the rest of the year so you need to take a handful of players who are going to play in the jabroni events.
ELITE PROS & CONS
PLUS: He has gained 4+ strokes in approach in 3 straight measured events. Remember the last time he did that? Try never.
MINUS: 3 of the bottom 14 putting performances of his career have come over the past month (spoiler alert: he’s STILL finished 21st or better in each of those events).
PLUS: Top 11 in 3 of his past 5 at THE PLAYERS (defending champ), gained 3.8 strokes putting at Genesis (he’s finished top-5 in 61% of his career events in which he’s gained at least 3.8 strokes with the putter)
MINUS: It’s been over 9 months since he gained strokes putting in consecutive events, his cumulative score over his past 3 events is 22 shots worse in Rounds 3-4 than it is in Rounds 1-2
PLUS: Dating back to last season, he has 5 straight top-15 finishes … something he also did leading into his victory at the 2019 PLAYERS.
MINUS: He’s lost strokes either putting or on approach in 7 of his past 8 measured events.
PLUS: Has gained with the putter in a career best 3 straight measured events, has gained over 4 fairways on the field in 5 of his past 6
MINUS: Has lost ARG in 5 of his past 6 and was -2.2 SG:ARG at this event last season
PLUS: MC at THE PLAYERS last year but he lost strokes OTT … hasn’t lost SG:OTT at an event since, 4 top-10s in 2022 despite being just a net +0.1 in SG:APP
MINUS: Has bled strokes in approach in 3 of his past 4: top-10 in just 4 of 36 career events when losing SG:APP
PLUS: 7 times in his career has he gained 6.8 strokes or more in a tournament in off-the-tee plus putting … two of them have come in his past two events (Genesis and API).
MINUS: He’s lost strokes on the field from the sand in 4 straight events and in 7 of his past 8.
PLUS: Already has as many events with 2+ SG:P in 2022 as 2021 (3)
MINUS: 3 career wins in measured events and he gained 7.5+ SG:T2G in all 3 … he’s gained 4.5+ just once since July
PLUS: Has gained at least 1.8 strokes putting in 3 of his last 4 at THE PLAYERS,
MINUS: Has lost SG:APP in 5 of his past 6 events (has lost off-the-tee in 3 of those 6 events), his past 3 wins have required elite form that he doesn’t currently have (runner-up finish in the tourney prior in all 3 of those instances)
PLUS: He’s gained over 2 opportunities on the field in 5 of 6 events this calendar year.
MINUS: 10 times in his past 9 events has his score changed (for better or worse) by 4+ rounds from one round to the round the very next day
PLUS: Has gained SG: Par 5 in 13 straight events, his SG:ARG and SG:P were both top-12 in his career at the 2021 PLAYERS
MINUS: Low floor … he’s lost over 3 strokes either in approach or off-the0tee in 3 of his past 5 events
PLUS: Best in approach and Top 10 in fairways gained over the last 36 rounds. Twice a winner at TPC Southwind, multiple Top 5s at the Honda, both water logged course.
MINUS: Weirdly over performs on Par 70 course and under performs on Par 72s. It’s strange. Also, you watched him Sunday at the Honda.
PLAYERS PME CONTENT HUB + SCHEDULE
TUESDAY: Play the Best Play Update w/ Rick
TUESDAY: Player By Player Breakdown w/ Rick
WEDNESDAY: Live Chat & Final Picks at 12pm ET w/ Tambo
THURSDAY: SHOWDOWN PICKS
FRIDAY: SHOWDOWN PICKS
FRIDAY: CUT SWEATS (Maybe)
All are available on the Audio Podcast feeds too, if that’s more your jam.
Oh, the DraftKings Listener’s league link is in the descripotion of all the shows as well, but since you’re all good people, and I want it to fill quickluy so they give us $100K guaranteed of RAKE FREE money at The Masters, I’ll just put it here.
I released the rankings from my custom model yesterday, but that was without the data from API include. Here’s how it looks now over the last 36 rounds
You can punch in your own numbers when you’re a Fantasy National member btw. Here, have a discount.
Instead of just isolating by a specific time frame, here’s a look at the rolling report so you can see risers and fallers over time
It’s too early in the week to make too many conclusions about ownership in the Milly Maker, but I CAN GUESS
Here’s what I’m thinking on a Monday night.
Cust was kind enough to give us three victims this week. I revealed Louis was his primary target this week. But now he’s added Adam Scott and Webb Simpson to the hit list. Here’s Cust in action