PGA Championship Update: Weather, Bets, Ownership
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In Sunday’s post I wrote $600 instead of $500, so it’s a BANK ERROR IN YOUR FAVOR!!!!!!! This why you should really never self edit. You just forget about shit.
I’m giving away $600 in COLD HARD CASH $100 along with a comped annual memberships to Fantasy National (You need to be a member at Fantasy National already to win those tho. Here, have 20% OFF.
Even if you done the reviews before, top it up and bump your name to the top of the list. ANDDDDDDDd if we get 200 new Apple Podcast Subs and reviews, I’ll chuck some more money in the pot to giveaway. He’s how you get your name in the draw:
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PGA CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENT
(Actually the proper links this time!)
OUT — PICKS, BETS, ONE AND DONE
OUT — DraftKings Milly Maker Picks
OUT — Research, Picks, Course, Custom Model
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TODAYS SHOW — PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BEST BETS (Out NOW)
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETS
The card is basically jammed up with the outright I want at this point. If (aka ONCE) I hit the secondary and truly bizarre markets I’ll post those too.
Justin Thomas (30/1 DraftKings SB) — No, he hasn't won in a year. So that's an issue. But when you scan through what he has done tee to green over the past four months, it’s been out of this world. The problem? He just can't putt enough. A classic tale. We know that he is not the world's greatest putter. However, when he gets it going, he has no qualms filling it up from any length. But we don’t even need that. Just don’t miss the easy ones you should make and we have a good shot at this. JT comes in at a very good discount price for a player of his caliber at the PGA championship this week.
Sungjae Im (35/1 DraftKings SB) — Some are rattled by Sungjae playing last week in Korea. If it ends up sinking him in Rochester, then I’ll tell ya I was wrong. We can just add it to the giant list when there’s an audit of my PGA performance, OK? There’s been the prevailing narrative that the redesign at Oak Hill has turned it into a a bombers paradise. Which may in fact be the case. But there still needs to be room of the shorter, more accurate player who does everything else well. That’s where Sungjae comes in. He may have better form entering a Major than any point of this career. In his past four PGA events, all elevated fields btw, he’s finished 6/16/7/8 and won last week in Korea. Which you should know already, since I said it a few sentences ago. Sungjae's one of a few players in the field you don’t really worry about across the board. He’s going to hit straight 12th in accuracy), the irons are going to be solid (35th in approach), and if he misses the green he has outs (9th Sand Saves, 17th around the green, 23rd scrambling). That’s essentially the peak Patrick Reed formula.
Cam Smith (40/1 Coolbet)— Priced down since The Masters, the reigning Open Champion may have perfect game for the 2023 version of Oak Hill. He sprays it off the tee, this we know, of the course seems far more forgiving this time around. And once Smith is off the tee, he’s still of the best players on the planet. Since his poor start to LIV 2023, he’s piled up three Top 6 finishes in the three events since Augusta and has the required touch green side and from the sand to avoid bleeding strokes to the field. If you believe he’s still a Top 5 talent in the world, this is a gift of a price.
Sam Burns (55/1 DraftKings SB) — Burns is one of the few players in the field who does’t need a nuclear week with his irons to contend; the driving, chipping and putting can be so elite it more than makes up for lagging approaching numbers. He’s just one of three players in the field Top 25 in driving distance and scrambling (Clark and Walker are the two others), and sits Top 5 in the field in putting one the past 36 rounds. Since he has a tenancy to look truly awful every few weeks, it’s never going to feel comfortable backing him, and that’s fine. Just remember, Burns has won five times in the past 24 months, and the PGA Championship is the only Major where’s he’s actually performed well in his career. Two appearances: Two Top 30 finishes.
Gary Woodland (125/1 Bet 365)— Just run a stat model without a heavy emphasis on chipping or putting and you’ll see why.
Rickie Fowler (+235 Bet 365; dead heats in play)— For all the crap that’s been piled on Rickie the past few years, with me near the front of that bus, he’s slowly climbing his way back into the upper level of talent on the PGA TOUR. Fowler hasn’t missed a cut in 2023, with six Top-20 finishes in his past eight starts. (Six of which were elevated events) While he’s yet to truly be in contention in any event, we don’t need him to be at his price this week. Over the past 36 rounds, he’s gained the 11th most strokes of any player in the field, led mainly by his irons (7th) and putter (19th) in that span while still being above field average off the tee and around the greens.
I’m still interested in N64 Face Harris English, Patrick Reed, and Denny McCarthy. The Top 40s may not pay enough, and the Top 10s seem very unlikely. I’ll figure it out by Wednesday.
Oh, I used $20 in bet credits to make a stupid to make the cut parlay. In sooth, I usually prefer to use bet credits on much longer shot wagers, but I’m an impatient person and I didn’t want to wait for the full list of “to make the cut” names to become available.
UPDATE STATS
I released version 1.0 of the stat model Sunday before the Bryon Nelson update. Here’s what it looks like now
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The ownership projections aren’t quite where they’re going to be in about 30 hours time (I recommended relying on those ones more than these), but this should give you a sense of where people are gravitating early in the week.
PGA WEATHER
Now, I should have really waited to release AFTER the tee times came out, but I was guessing it was more important to have something to read 5 min into the work day and actually information that relevant. I know I would be for me. If I had a real job.
We’ll keep monitoring the weather for the week at Oak Hill, specifically on Wednesday’s show with Tambo, but as it stands right now, I’ll be waiting for the tee times to attack showdown and First round leader, to make sure all my guys play in the afternoon. It’s not freezing, but it’s certainly not warm in the morning. And the ball is simply going to travel farther in the afternoon once it heat up a bit. Science.
That projected Friday wind is just lol.
WIND TOWER: Rochester Airport
PGA BETTING BOARD
There’s been a big swing in the Odds (not just at DK Sportsbook either). Unexpectedly, Xander and Cantlay have caught steam and pushed them up the board. Because of that, we’re now getting some juicy numbers on Justin Thomas, DJ, Cam Young, Spieth, and Sam Burns. I’m somewhat surprised by Cam Young falling 10 points on the market as I expected him to be a popular bet this week. Not looking that way atm.
— PM