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PGA CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENT
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PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETS
Cam Smith 40/1
Keegan Bradley 125/1
Cam Smith — Priced down since The Masters, the reigning Open Champion may have perfect game for the 2023 version of Oak Hill. He sprays it off the tee, this we know, of the course seems far more forgiving this time around. And once Smith is off the tee, he’s still of the best players on the planet. Since his poor start to LIV 2023, he’s piled up three Top 6 finishes in the three events since Augusta and has the required touch green side and from the sand to avoid bleeding strokes to the field. If you believe he’s still a Top 5 talent in the world, this is a gift of a price.
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP DETAILS
156 Players | Top 70 & Ties Make the Cut
First Tee: Thursday, May 18
Defending Champion: Justin Thomas
2023 PGA Championship: Key Stats
SG: Off The Tee
SG: Approach
Proximity 175+ Yards
SG: Around The Green
Sand Saves Gained
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Course: Oak Hill CC
Yardage: 7,394
Par: 70
Greens: Bentgrass
Average Green Size: 4500 sq. Ft.
Bunkers: 78
Holes with Water in Play: 6
Par 3 (4) - Average distance (204 yards): two real long ones (230+) with a pair of sub-190 yard Par 3’s.
There were five holes with a sub-9% birdie rate back in 2013 and the two long Par 3’s made that list Conversely, they both held a bogey or worse rate over 30%.
Par 4 (12) - Average distance (445 yards): 180 yards separate the longest from the shortest when it comes to Par 4’s with the majority of them measuring at least 460 yards, including the three closing holes.
Two of the three toughest holes on this course in 2013 were the two Par 4’s to round out the back 9
Hole No. 14 is only 320 yards but it’s not especially drivable. There are three bunkers protecting the front of the elevated green with run off areas on every other side of the tiny landing surface. Theoretically, someone like Rory may be able to sky a 3-Wood and get the world’s softest landing, but it’s doubtful many even attempt it when wedge/wedge may be good enough. For context, in 2013, it played as the easiest Par 4 with a 23% birdie rate, and there was one eagle.
Par 5 (2) - Average distance (620 yards): The fourth hole on both 9’s features a lengthy Par 5.
They are much longer now than they were in 2013, but the players are much longer too. A decade ago, the two Par 5’s were the easiest holes on the course … both having a birdie rate north of 21% and a bogey rate under 15%. It’s unlikely any players get their in two to outside of periodic chip ins, don’t expect many eagles.
Winners
2022: Justin Thomas (-5)
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6)
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13)
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8)
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16)
Winner Details
2022: Justin Thomas (-5, playoff win over Will Zalatoris)
Survived a poor Saturday (74) thanks to shooting 67 in each of the other three rounds
9 of the top-12 finishers gained with the short irons (75-100 yards)
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6, two clear of Brooks Koepka and Louie Oosthuizen)
Sunday was tough on everyone (each of the top three finishers shot over par) … Lefty was the only player to shoot 70 or better in each of the first three rounds.
Distance putting didn’t really matter: six of the top 7 finishers lost ground on the field with the flat stick from either 20-25 feet or 25+ (if not both)
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13, two clear of Dustin Johnson and Paul Casey)
Morikawa was one of four players for the week to card a 64 … he saved it for the final round (he was even with Casey and two behind DJ entering Sunday)
Short iron play was again rewarded … 10 of the top 12 finishers gained in that 75-100-yard range (Morikawa won courtesy of the long irons, but the common skill set was the shorter shots)
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8, two clear of Dustin Johnson)
He was a solo leader after Thursday after a 63 (six shots better than any of the players that finished top-5 for the week)
KISS … none of the top 7 finishers lost ground on the field in putting from 5-10 feet or from 10-15 feet
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16, two clear of Tiger Woods)
Koepka was in the 60’s in all four rounds, including the round of the week with a 63 on Friday
The top 9 finishers all gained distance off he tee (four of them lost fairways to the field)
2013 PGA Championship
Winner: Jason Dufner (-10, two clear of Jim Furyk)
He used one good round (63 on Friday, not just the round of the day, but the best round of the week) and a good enough Sunday (68, at least two shots better than the 2-4 finishers for the week) to earn the win
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP COURSE NOTES
Oak Hill Golf Course is a renowned golf course located in Pittsford, New York, just outside of Rochester. The course has a rich history, having hosted numerous major championships, including the US Open, PGA Championship, and Ryder Cup. It was designed by Donald Ross and opened for play in 1926.
Oak Hill has been known for its challenging layout, with narrow fairways and a mix of doglegs, bunkers, and water hazards, but this year’s incarnation isn’t going to resemble the other grand-scale events you may remember from years past. Be it any of the three previous PGA Championships, 1989 US Open or the 1995 Ryder Cup. You may think the 2013 leaderboard of Jason Dufner triumphing over Jim Furyk points you in the proper skill set direction, but that may not be the case in 2023.
In 2019, the club orchestrated a near-total remodel of the East Course by architect Andrew Green, returning it much to its original design by Donald Ross in 1924:
“Green’s work at Oak Hill changed its complexion entirely. He remodeled every green complex, fairway and landing zone to resurrect the original Ross character and spaciousness of the East Course that had been intentionally and unintentionally eradicated by 70 years of growth and architectural alteration. When Ross constructed the course in 1924 on mostly bare farmland (the property was already called Oak Hill, even though it had few trees), the holes were expansive with segmented, broad-shouldered greens and deep, scruffy bunkers.
Green’s renovation moved Oak Hill back toward this complexion by reclaiming fairway widths, and through the removal of thousands of oaks, elms, maples and other varietals, opening up sightlines across the property unimaginable a decade ago when Jason Dufner held off Jim Furyk during the last PGA Championship played here. Three new holes were also built, and Green found more than 200 yards of additional teeing space, bringing the championship distance to just shy of 7,400 yards.”
While the fairways have been widened, minimally, they remain quite narrow by weekly PGA TOUR standards, but it’s the removal of those trees which should alter the strategy. In 2013, it was imperative to find the short grass off the tee. This is how Henrik Stenson, Jonas Blixt, David Toms, and Zach Johnson all joined Duf Daddy and Furyk inside the top 8 finishers. Overall, 13 of the Top 18 finishers gained strokes on the field in accuracy.
This isn’t to downplay the importance of accuracy this week. You’d be hard pressed to find anyone who will tell you, at any course, missing the fairway makes things easier than finding it. With the removal of over 600 trees, however, there are now spots to actually miss on the grounds. It wasn’t that the rough was so penal if you missed the fairway you had to hack it back out. No. It was the massive amount of wooded areas that affected the path to the green. With so many of those out of the picture, bombers can get away with a few more wayward drives and still recover. More so with the course extended over 200 yards.
Even with plus distance, approaches from 175 yards and beyond will prove to be the most critical into the elevated putting surfaces. Beyond the rudimentary “be good at driving and irons”, having a fatal flaw in any of the four major SG metrics is almost an automatic disqualified at Oak Hill. The green in regulation percentage in 2013 was 56%, and it may be lower this time around with the redesign. Players’ short games will be tested. A player like Scottie Scheffler can mask his horrid putting since his around the green magic is bountiful, but any player who struggles chipping and putting, paint a thick red line through their names.
Over the last 24 rounds, notable players who rank in the bottom 25% of the field in SG: ATG + SG: PUTT — Nick Hardy, Viktor Hovland, Davis Riley, Davis Thompson, Kevin Kisner, Corey Conners, Collin Morikawa, Gary Woodland, Cameron Young, and Taylor Pendrith. Look, it’s possible for talents like Morikawa, Hovland, Young, and Conners to overcome these issues for one week, or come close to leading the field in GIR and ball striking to limit the amount of times they’ll actually need a short game, but it’s a tough scene where one bad chip can result in a blow up number. Two times, and you’re probably done. Feels like they’re drawing to fewer outs and all the other elite level players.
(Morikawa is the next name on the list)
NOTE: Because I’m a sucker, I will still be going all in on Woodland.
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP LEAD-IN FORM
Players to finish with at least a share of a top-10 over the past 3 PGA Championships …
Let’s put those finishes into buckets…
And the general form thresholds you want to hit …
You could build an interesting lineup from just this data (this is just one unique path, a million ways to do it. This leaves $500 on the table)
Xander Schauffele ($9,900) has four straight top-20’s and wasn’t just top-20 at the last PGA … he’s done it in three of his past four appearances at the event.
Cam Young ($9,200) finished 3rd at the PGA last year and it’s been 14 months since the last time he lost strokes off the tee (2022 PLAYERS)
Shane Lowry ($8,300) fits the past PGA mold (23rd last season) and has gained both OTT and APP in 3 straight events (matching his longest such streak since summer of 2019)
Sam Burns ($8,200) has a top-20 in both a lead-in event (15th at RBC Heritage) and at his last PGA Championship (20th last season)
Rickie Fowler ($7,600) has 4 straight top-20’s and placed 8th at his most recent PGA Championship
Alex Smalley ($6,300, hometown kid), checks these boxes by way of an 18thplace finish at Wells Fargo
— PM