PGA Championship Final Picks, More

DraftKings Ownership, Da Weather, UFC Bets, Content List

BREAKING: There are 500 spots left in the PME DraftKings listener’s league. $100K Guaranteed and NO RAKE. If we don’t fill it, they won’t give us $100 of NO RAKE money again. So, go get your three entries, OKKK? And fuck it, here’s the link.

Oh, and that 20% off at Fantasy National can be had here. The monthly membership gets you PGA through US Open. You’ll want it just for the LIVE STATS LEADERBOARD this week along.

I want to thank everyone who tuned in, listened, or read the content this week, and helped out in sharing the show around. Over the past four reads between views, clicks and audio downloads, almost 2 million people have checked out the content. Couldn’t have done it without your help and constant support. Me and everyone who has a hand in the show truly appreciate it. Congrats to all the giveaway winners too!

NOW, lets lose some $$$$$$

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETS

No better time than a Major to break out of an outright winner slump.

At the last second, I just couldn’t differentiate the tops guys enough to have a strong lean on anyone. My gut said Dustin Johnson (and still does) but I chickened out and didn’t pull the trigger at 18/1. I feel like I’ll regret this. Instead, as yo’ve heard me say all week, I’m starting with CAMMMMMMMMMM Smith. I look forward to him being +4 through five holes Thursday now. Most of these guys I’ve talked about in the lead up to the week except for Webb.

If the course is going to play long, I really wanted to focus on players who hit longer irons than their peers and have limited issues getting it up and down from inside 75 yards. Reed would also fall into this camp, but I’m a slut for longer odds so here we are. I didn’t go with the outright on Harman, just a Top 20, but if the lack of length isn’t going to be detrimental, he’s another who fits the mold I’m targeting.

I was originally going to play Top 10s only on Bubba and Kuchar but the outrights + the each ways I found to be better value, with a lot more upside. For major week, I’m getting 8 places on the eachway, but getting 1/5 odds on that placement. So, yes, I’m losing two placement points, which is huge, but the price seems about right. I could bet, lets say, $20 on Bubba Top 10 at +750 for a $150 dollar return. Or I could bet $20 on the 100/1 outright + eachway (so $10/$10) and it would return $1000 for a win, and $200 for a Top 8 finish. Ditto with Kuch. He is +1100 for a Top 10, so it would be $210 on a $20 Top 10 bet, or $280 for a Top 8 finish, along with the $1400 if he somehow won. Plus, the outright can give you hedge equity if there’s a H2H showdown come Sunday.

Anyway, that is the reasoning behind those two outrights.

I deviated a bit on my First Round Leader strategy. Usually it’s just a bunch of longshots from. 100/1 and up. But that hasn’t been working, so lets shrink the list and take a few higher odds guys. Once again, I probably should just made one wager on DJ in this spot. Live and learn.

Here are the betting splits from DraftKings SportsBook this week, in case you were wondering.

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENT

DraftKings Milly Maker Picks
PGA Championship Research and Stats
PGA Championship Bets & One and Done
Giant Write Up
Player-by-Player breakdown
Final Picks + Ownership + Viewer Questions

Thursday: NFL Rookie Rankings
Friday: PGA Championship CUT SWEAT LIVEEEE

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP WEATHER

For weather, it looks like there could be a slight advantage to the PM/AM stack, but I don’t trust the weather forecast enough to bother adjusting to it. Too much can change. Here’s the SUPERFORECAST from the Surfsong/Kiawah Island windtower for Thursday. I have my doubts it’s a consistent wind speed and direction all day long. Call it a hunch.

Then the rest of the week. I’m guessing by this time tomorrow it’ll all be reversed.

DRAFTKINGS OWNERSHIP

Always be following Skylar on Twitter (and watch his Euro Picks Golf show with Tom Jacobs every week too!) to get the full ownership %s and most duplicated lineups immediately after lineup lock each week. But since we’re here, lets take some ownership guesses for the DraftKings Millionaire Maker…

Hovland 31%
Spieth 24%
X 21%
Ancer 19%
Berger 19%
Keegan 17%
Burns 15%

It’s comical how off I’m going to be on this. Oh, and if you had any guts in the slightest, you’d play Patrick Cantlay. As someone who is gutless, I did not. That’s how you know he’s going to be good.

UFC

After an almost 50/1 2-Prop Parlay winner last week, Paul and Cody are BACK. And you should all at least click on the show and give it a like, even if you don’t watch.

I directed the first 75% of the show, and the way they were talking about Hermansson like he was lock, but neither would bet him because it feels like something is fishy. They convinced me tho. They give out their fav bets, but judging from how they were talking, I went with this…

Good Luck

— PM