PGA Championship Final Bets, Weather, DraftKings Ownership
WINNERS!!!!!!
Congrats to kelly_berglund, ODINmdm & joelingen as the giveaway winners. CHECK YOUR DMs!!!! The Fantasy National one-year FREE membership will be given away Monday on the Recap/Colonial Picks show. (You need to be a member at Fantasy National already to win those tho. Here, have 20% OFF.)
BETS
HOW BOUT SOME FIRST ROUND LEADERS???
Fleetwood 60
Reed 70
Kirk 110 (+ Top 5)
P Rodgers 110 (+ Top 5)
Jordan Smith 140 (+ Top 5)
I should have waited on JT’s number to plummet farther it seems. He’s now 35/1 on DKSB if you’re interested. If Woodland wins this week it may be the largest community win of all time. So there’s no chance that cashes now.
WATCH: PGA CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL BETS/ONE & DONE
Cam Smith — Priced down since The Masters, the reigning Open Champion may have perfect game for the 2023 version of Oak Hill. He sprays it off the tee, this we know, of the course seems far more forgiving this time around. And once Smith is off the tee, he’s still of the best players on the planet. Since his poor start to LIV 2023, he’s piled up three Top 6 finishes in the three events since Augusta and has the required touch green side and from the sand to avoid bleeding strokes to the field. If you believe he’s still a Top 5 talent in the world, this is a gift of a price.
Justin Thomas — No, he hasn't won in a year. So that's an issue. But when you scan through what he has done tee to green over the past four months, it’s been out of this world. The problem? He just can't putt enough. A classic tale. We know that he is not the world's greatest putter. However, when he gets it going, he has no qualms filling it up from any length. But we don’t even need that. Just don’t miss the easy ones you should make and we have a good shot at this. JT comes in at a very good discount price for a player of his caliber at the PGA championship this week.
Sungjae Im — Some are rattled by Sungjae playing last week in Korea. If it ends up sinking him in Rochester, then I’ll tell ya I was wrong. We can just add it to the giant list when there’s an audit of my PGA performance, OK? There’s been the prevailing narrative that the redesign at Oak Hill has turned it into a a bombers paradise. Which may in fact be the case. But there still needs to be room of the shorter, more accurate player who does everything else well. That’s where Sungjae comes in. He may have better form entering a Major than any point of this career. In his past four PGA events, all elevated fields btw, he’s finished 6/16/7/8 and won last week in Korea. Which you should know already, since I said it a few sentences ago. Sungjae's one of a few players in the field you don’t really worry about across the board. He’s going to hit straight 12th in accuracy), the irons are going to be solid (35th in approach), and if he misses the green he has outs (9th Sand Saves, 17th around the green, 23rd scrambling). That’s essentially the peak Patrick Reed formula.
Sam Burns — Burns is one of the few players in the field who does’t need a nuclear week with his irons to contend; the driving, chipping and putting can be so elite it more than makes up for lagging approaching numbers. He’s just one of three players in the field Top 25 in driving distance and scrambling (Clark and Walker are the two others), and sits Top 5 in the field in putting one the past 36 rounds. Since he has a tenancy to look truly awful every few weeks, it’s never going to feel comfortable backing him, and that’s fine. Just remember, Burns has won five times in the past 24 months, and the PGA Championship is the only Major where’s he’s actually performed well in his career. Two appearances: Two Top 30 finishes.
Gary Woodland — Just run a stat model without a heavy emphasis on chipping or putting and you’ll see why.
Rickie Fowler (+235 Bet 365; dead heats in play)— For all the crap that’s been piled on Rickie the past few years, with me near the front of that bus, he’s slowly climbing his way back into the upper level of talent on the PGA TOUR. Fowler hasn’t missed a cut in 2023, with six Top-20 finishes in his past eight starts. (Six of which were elevated events) While he’s yet to truly be in contention in any event, we don’t need him to be at his price this week. Over the past 36 rounds, he’s gained the 11th most strokes of any player in the field, led mainly by his irons (7th) and putter (19th) in that span while still being above field average off the tee and around the greens.
GOLD/SILVER/BRONZE PICKS
Rob Pizzola was OUT on the best bets show this week, so TOUR JUNKIES’ David Barnett stepped in to give out his top wagers for the week. This show was hilarious bt, if you haven’t checked it out yet.
WATCH: PGA Championship Picks, Best Bets, Special Markets
GOLD PICKS
Mayo: Fowler Top 30 +150
Cam: Rahm Top Cont. Euro -110
DB: Fleetwood over Scott/Theegala +170
SILVER PICKS
Mayo: Reed Top 30 +170
Cam: Fitz top GB +250
DB: Olesen Top Dane +210
BRONZE PICKS
Mayo: Keegan/Cam Smith/Im to make the cut +160
Cam: JT Top USA 15/1
DB: Paddy Top Senior +220
THE TIDBITS
Tambo and co. launched a new site this week (and they’ll be proving FREE shows on Mayo Media Network for PGA Showdown Contests) and I wanted to congratulate him. I’ve started three businesses now, and it’s equal parts exciting and terrifying all at once. Didn’t stop him from releasing the TIDBITS either.
https://twitter.com/ToeTagginTambo/status/1658811695043575810
WEATHER
There’s rumors of a frost warning coming into play both mornings that may push tee times back a bit. Even if that’s the case, for showdown and first round leaders, the afternoon wave, when its warmer should have a daily advantage. Hopefully that rain doesn’t come until overnight Friday. I can’t handle another cut sweat show getting cancelled.
WIND TOWER: Rochester Airport
TEE TIMES
Thursday am wave
Thursday pm wave
DraftKings
Tambo and I talked through the slate and ownership along with the most common starts to lineups and how to pivot oof those. Plus, we chatted through how to construct different lineups for different types of contests. Like, what should you do in the Milly Maker vs the PME Open vs a contest with under 500 players.
WATCH: DraftKings Picks, Owenership & Roster Construction
Good luck.
— PM