PGA CHAMPIONSHIP CHEATSHEET: Bets, Weather, Underdog, Make/Miss Cut, DraftKings Notes
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP QUICK BETS
Bryson DeChambeau +1600
Justin Thomas +1900
Hatton +5000
Hideki +5000
Dean Burmester +15000 (8 Places)
Chacarra +40000 (8 Places)
FIRST ROUND LEADER
Conners +6000
Mitchell +8000
Akshay +8000
Burmester +11000
Chacarra +14000 (5 Places)
SPECIALS/PROPS
Kevin Yu Top Asian +1100
Garrick Higgo Top Lefty +900
Chacarra Top 30 +333
Reed over Day -110
Ludvig over Morikawa +120
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PICKS
Bryson DeChambeau — Bryson’s ability to overpower PGA Championships and US Opens should always have him in strong consideration as a pick to win. Between LIV and the Masters, he’s played in four consecutive final pairings, finally closing his last time out at LIV Korea. And, among the big 3 (Scottie, Rory, and Bryson), he is the most reliable on the greens historically. If we get the smiler iron play to the Masters, then he’s not going to win, but between his prodigious driving and elite putting, a slightly above average approach week should have him with another late tee time Sunday. One of the best predictors of Major performance is past Major results and Bryson has four Top 6 finishes in his past five Majors, and has three Top 4 finishes in three of the past four PGA Championships. Plus, he’s more than double the odds of Rory and Scottie. He shouldn’t be.
PGA Championship Final Bets, Weather, One & Done Picks
Justin Thomas - Six Top 10s in his past 10 starts including a current T2/T36/Win/T2 run entering Quail Hollow has him primed for another Sunday run. JT has the distance to complete but he’s still a notch below the truly elite drivers. And if there’s a part of his game that can him wayward it’s a coin flip between his driver and putter. The flat stick has been excellent for months now, so it’ll be the big stick which will ultimately determine his fate. If JT can keep the flare ups from the tee box to a bare minimum he’s more than live for a third Wanamaker.
Hideki & Hatton — These were futures from January. They wouldn’t get my money at the current prices but maybe that works out in my favor. Who knows?
Dean Burmester — LIV distain from the general public actually gets us better odds and the vast majority of its golfers. Burmester’s been a fringe Top 30 player in the world for the past two years, but you’d never know since he’s quite anonymous. Well, Mean Dean is on the longest players in the field, quality short game with the ability to post spike approach weeks, especially with his long irons. He just can’t putt. Hopefully he forgets that and makes a few this week.
HOT LINKS
PGA Championship 2025 Best Bets | First Round Leader Picks, Make/Miss Cut Parlay & Outright Winners
PGA Championship 2025 Picks & Bets, One & Done | Andercursed Picks
NFL News: Tucker Cut, Jets Draft, Tush Push Ban | Cust Corner: Gas Station Deals, Easy Rock Climbing
Eugenio Chacarra — It’s tough to make much sense of his form since he’s been playing a mix of DP World Tour and Asian tour, but the talent is most certainly there. He was the No. 2 amateur in the world to Ludvig Aberg before leaving to join LIV. He won immediately on LIV then had a falling out with Sergio and booted from THE FIREBALLS and found himself out of the league. Since, he won in Scotland against a bunch of LIV players in 2023 and again in India on DP a few months ago. He hasn’t finished outside the Top 20 in any start since October 2024, a string of eight events. That includes Top 10s in five of seven starts.
Kevin Yu — If you believe bombers are the path of least resistance this week, then there are only two players in the Top Asian market who rank inside the Top 60 in driving distance in this field over the past 50 rounds.: Ben An (25th) & Yu (29th). An is the superior player but is half the odds of Yu and Yu’s iron form is far more consistent over the past few months.
H2H Reed over Day -110 (Coolbet)
Reed enters with great form while Day in struggling through a herniated disc in his neck. Maybe it’s a big nothing burger about the neck, but since I like Reed more anyway, we’ll always have the WD out for Day if he hits a few shots and decides he can’t go anymore. As long as he hits a shot, the WD would make Reed the automatic winner. Day may be fine, and he’s a member at Quail Hollow (couldn’t forget that!) and he can still play well and lose a better Reed regardless.
MAKE/MISS CUT + UNDERDOG
Normally, I hit the sportsbooks for Make Cut parlays, but options are usually limited to the Top 40/50 players or so. Not the case on Underdog this week. Underdog offers almost everyone in the field, which feels ripe to target some under achievers at quite reasonable odds. I’ve played a bunch of these over the course of the week, so I through together most of my core “Miss Cut” plays in this one entry that comes out to 44x. I wasn’t able to add them all since I maxed out my $500 limit per player on some of them. Don’t be scared to search the lobby for a profit boost to tack on too. Get them extra bucks.
If you’re new to Underdog, and sign up with code “MAYO” you’ll get a free pick to add on and take it up to around 60x, along with a deposit bonus up to $1,000.
TAIL THIS ENTRY (or fade) & Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a FREE PICK and deposit bonus up to $1000
I do have MISSED CUT rankings too:
Nick Dunlap
Thriston Lawrence
Karl Villips
Alex Noren
Christian Bezuidenhout John Parry
Tom Kim
Adam Scott
There is also a PME boost in the lobby on Coolbet as well. This is available to all Canadians outside Ontario.
FYI: Coolbet is also giving away a trip to go play at the Cabot Courses in October. These are the two of the world’s best courses, and I can tell you that first hand since I make the trek to go play them every year. All you need to do is OPT IN to the giveaway and go. It’s a bucket list trip. I live three hours away and it never disappoints. (code: Sports200 if you don’t yet have an account. That’ll get you bonus cash)
OPT- IN TO THE COOLBET CABOT GIVEAWAY
WEATHER
The rain it hard Monday and Tuesday in Charolette with a sprinkle into the morning Wednesday, but things are looking dry the remainder of the week. The waves look about even for Thursday/Friday (maybe a slight lean to PM/AM since there are expected high winds Friday afternoon after the course dries out), but nothing I’m going out of my way to stack up. Saturday may be the real test with expected high winds and a ton of heat.
WIND TOWER: Charlotte Douglas International Airport
DRAFTKINGS
There are a bunch of dead zones in the DraftKings pricing. I’d expect Rory/Bryson to be above all other players, with JT/Scottie not too far behind. For the rest if the 9K and up range it looks like Xander, Viktor, Cantlay, and Fleetwood may be the ones to crack double-digits in ownership in large field GPPs. And it may not be all of them.
Of this group, Aberg is of targeted pivot options, with Hideki/Hatton in the 9K and Min Woo/Clark in the 8Ks.
From there Conners, Berger, Reed, and Keegan are the only ones over 7K to currently project over 10%. Tambo and I discussed why this is on there Wednesday DK show.
WATCH: PGA Championship 2025 DraftKings Picks & Lineups
In case you don’t have that kind of time (take the 3 seconds and go smash the like for me anyways), Since the vast majority of lineups are going to try and jam two of Scottie/Rory/Bryson/JT with Conners/Reed/Berger, it makes it impossible under the salary cap to actually afford any of other players. You’re forced into the low 6K/High 5K range to fill out lineups.
If you can figure out which 7K players are going to lurk on the leaderboard, using them is a way to jam the chalk up top yet have completely different lineups than the rest of the field.
Because of this, there are going to be a few scrubs who carry far more ownership than projected based only how lineups are being built. I’d guess Keith Mitchell and Gary Woodland suck up a lot of the clicks. Maybe Novak too.
Of my 42 lineups, here are the scrubs. I ran through my lineups.
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