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Pebble Beach Research, First Look
2022 AT&T Pebble Beach
Finally hit a 2022 winner in Luke List, but we’re back to the grind with the awful Pebble Beach Pro-Am. research show is OUT now on video and audio. How good was Wed-Sat PGA btw?
Defending champ Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, Seamus Power, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, and the rejuvenated Jason Day headline the field.
Matthew Fitzpatrick, Min WOO Lee, Matthias Schwab and Dean Burmester are all making their PGA debuts.
Maverick McNealey, Mac Hughes, Mito Pereira, Aaron Rai, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Cameron Tringale, Tom Hoge, Matt Kuchar, Lanto Griffin, Joel Dahmen, Ryan Palmer, Brandt Snedeker, Chris Kirk, Lucas Glover, and Cameron Champ are at Pebble too.
It’s not a great field. It’s not even a good field of celebrities in 2022.
Josh Allen -- Buffalo Bills quarterback
Canelo Álvarez -- Champion boxer
Bret Baier -- News anchor
Mookie Betts -- MLB All-Star
Don Cheadle -- Actor
Kira K. Dixon -- Golf Channel reporter, former Miss America
Josh Duhamel -- Actor
Scott Eastwood -- Actor
Larry Fitzgerald -- Future NFL Hall of Famer
Colt Ford -- Musician
Macklemore -- Musician
Mia Hamm -- Soccer legend
Thomas Keller -- Chef
Charles Kelley -- Musician
Huey Lewis -- Musician
Michael Peña -- Actor
Bill Murray -- Actor and comedian
Lukas Nelson -- Musician
Kathryn Newton -- Actress
Chris O’Donnell -- Actor
Jake Owen -- Musician
ScHoolboy Q -- Musician
Alfonso Ribeiro -- Actor
Ray Romano -- Actor
Darius Rucker -- Musician
Alex Smith -- Former NFL quarterback
Clay Walker -- Musician
Steve Young -- NFL Hall of Fame quarterback
To celebrate Brandon Harkins Korn Ferry victory and return to the PGA TOUR this week, of course, the world’s only Harkins superfan, Ben Rasa, will be on the show Tuesday.
SUNDAY AN ALL TIME ANDERCUSRED DAY
It started off small for poor Richard Bland in Dubai…
We got another touch with Stafford…
But, the early leader for MOST CURSED of 2022 is…
He even tried to delete this one from Saturday, thinking no one saw it..
Don’t forget to relive all of 2021 worst calls and…
Here are my model results from the past 24 rounds.
2022 Pebble Beach: Course(s)
Yes, the awful three-course rotation is back in 2022. Cut comes after round three.
Course: Pebble Beach GL (Two Rounds)
Shot Tracker: Yes
Course: Spyglass Hill GC (One Round)
Shot Tracker: No
Course: Monterey Peninsula (One Round)
Shot Tracker: No
2022 Pebble Beach: Past Winners
2021: Daniel Berger -18
2020: Nick Taylor -19
2019: Phil Mickelson -19
2018: Ted Potter Jr. -17
2017: Jordan Spieth -19
2016: Vaughn Taylor -17
2015: Brandt Snedeker -22
2014: Jimmy Walker -11
2013: Brandt Snedeker -19
2012: Phil Mickelson -17
2011: D.A. Points -15
2010: Dustin Johnson -16
JORDAN SPIETH: Yay or Nay?
If you recall, it was after a missed cut at Farmers a year ago when Jordan Spieth switch finally got flicked ON after a few years. He’d post consecutive Top 4s in Phoenix and at Pebble before finally winning in early April. In fact, his missed cut at last year’s Farmer was his last missed cut before last week’s Farmers. Now, it is worth noting, his approach game, the key factor in his 2021 resurgence, has been dog shit since last year’s Open Championship. Which, per my Far Side calendar, was six months ago. A half year. One-Twentieth of a decade.
From Farmers through The Open, Spieth averaged over four strokes on approach per start in those 11 measured event (which do not include his T3 at The Masters and 2nd at The Open btw). Since The Open, Spieth has gained on his approaches just once in seven starts, and that was a mighty +0.4 SG:APP at the BMW in August. Fortunately, if you like Spieth, these numbers are not dissimilar from what he was doing before Farmers a year ago. Doesn’t mean the turnaround is inevitable, mind you.
A return to a happy place should work wonders however. Spieth has played Pebble Beach each of the past nine seasons and has finished worse than T22 just once, T45 in 2019 — And he was a stroke off the lead after two rounds that year — and has notched a win and five Top 10s in those nine starts.
Pebble Beach is annually the course with the shortest average drive on TOUR (264 yards vs. 283 yards); and the one with the fewest amount of drives over 300 yards (9%).
Last 6 winners have all been either 30/1 or below (Spieth, Phil, Berger) or 100/1 or longer (TPJ and Taylors: Nick and Vaughan). Good news for Moore and Pendrith? Or is this only a last name thing?
Justin Rose was 5th at Torrey with his irons, and that combined with his 3rd at the 2019 US Open at Pebble is worth keeping in mind. But I’m sure he was already on your mind.
Good Ball striking, Bad Putting Torrey
Zalatoris beat the field by over 3 strokes BallStriking, but lost nearly 2 strokes with the flatstick.
Cameron Young lost 2.29 strokes on the greens while gaining 3+ with both irons and driver
Cam Champ cost himself 3.24 strokes on the green, erasing a great driving week and a week where he gained with his irons.
Of all players who missed the cut at Torrey Pines, Nick Watney gained the most on approach (+2.7 on the South Course). He’s far from vintage Watney, but he finish T2 as recently as 2015. And it’s not like he was vintage Watney then, either.
This is the first tournament of the year with a full complement of Poa Annua greens. Torrey Pines is spilt between Poa and Bentgrass between the courses. Since 2019, for players with at least 10 measured rounds on Poa, Mark Hubbard, Wyndham Clark, Maverick McNealy, Matt Kuchar, Brice Garnett, Brandt Snedeker, Brian Stuard, and Ted Potter Jr. are all averaging +0.7 SG:PUTT per round on Poa greens.
Looking at it another way, here is the Poa Putting leaders against the field since 2019 and their last 24 rounds. This is how often they simply gained versus the field in those rounds.
All three of these courses measure under 7,200 yards, so lets turn on those Fantasy National filters.
Here are the SG: TOTAL leaders from the past 24 rounds on courses under 7,200 yards.
Here are the SG: APP leaders from the past 24 rounds on courses under 7,200 yards.
Approach, I’ve heard is important.
Unless wind picks up, all three courses should be pretty good for DK showdown scoring, but Monterey Peninsula has two Par 5s with over a 4% eagle rate. That seems good enough to stack and hope to get lucky with eagles being sooooooo valuable in showdown scoring.