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Pebble Beach DraftKings Picks, Bets & One and Done
Pebble Beach Bets & Picks
Payton to DEN, Awards + Cust Corner
Pebble Beach Research
Pebble Bets
Peppered the longer shots for this event as no one from he top of the board really interested me at their currently odds. I like Mav, Power, and Hoge but that’s just too pricy for my liking. What’s funny, despite the eight bets, I’ve invested less money pre-tourney than a regular week. I’ve done this to potentially take a shot or two Saturday afternoon if I can catch the books napping on a longer shot on MP or SH. I talked about this with Tambo more in-depth…
WATCH: FINAL BETS & ONE AND DONE
Lanto Griffin — I just find it too hard to back the guys at the top at these numbers. So let's go with a recent returning Lanto. Who, if not for his long lay off, would be in the +2500 range. But here’s the thing: He made his first start last week since last summer after his back surgery, and looked great a Torrey Pines. A course which doesn’t suit his overall game quite like Pebble Beach as evidence by his T16 and T9 in his last two trips at this event.
Troy Merritt — Pebble has been a happy spot for Merritt over the years. He’s reeled off four straight Top 25 finishes in this event and is one of the only players in the world who seems to have the ability to be the best or worst player in any field with his irons round-to-round. In his past six starts, he’s gained over six strokes on approach and lost over six in separator starts. Fortunately, the same variance which makes him hilariously untrustworthy keeps his price from ever rising too high. Just hope this is the week it all click for him.
DFS
Run the Sims is FREE (by signing up for a free account) for Super Bowl. So generate, projection, and sim KC/PHI as many ways as you like. And, I get it, XFL and USFL are pretty stupid. But, as I found out last year with the USFL, if you have good projections, you can smash the DFS and Props market. I’d expect relatively large prize pools on DK to kick off XFL so the first month is the kicker. I have no better ROI in any sport ever than USFL last year and I never watch a second. Just ran the sims and collected my cash. I know Justin is already grinding edges on the rosters to make the projections as good as possible.
PGA DRAFTKINGS
I did the walk through on the Sunday research show, and these are the Top players (34 rounds) in my key stats. Make your own at FN btw.
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Look, I don’t really want to put too much stock into the weather this week, but it looks like it picks up for the second half of Saturday’s round, which would likely impact the Pebble Beach GL players the most being directly on the coast with potential blow up holes. Probably not going to make much of a difference in the long run, but if you wanted to get away from the players on PB that round (which is almost all the top players), you’re looking at Putnam, Hoge, Denny, and Rose. Sunday would be fun with some choas though. It will certainly be the best TV of the week…
Pebble Beach/Lone Cypress WIND TOWER
NFL OFF WEEK
We were gifted the Sean Payton news mid-way through the show. So that was a bonus. But the Cust Dream House Cust Corner was one of the best in a while.
WATCH: Payton to DEN, Awards & Cust Corner
SIXTH ANNUAL CUSTYS
Here’s a taste. VOTE NOW!!!!!!!
VOTE IN THIS YEAR’S CUSTY AWARDS
The Tidbits
Tambo is BACK, and he’s got the best of FREE content from around DFS Twitter this week…
PEBBLE DK NOTES
WATCH: PEBBLE DK PICKS, BETS, ONE & DONE
DRAFTKINGS TRENDS (stars and scrubs)
2022: The winner checked in at $8,500 and scored 25.5 more DK points than anyone else
6 players scored 105+ DK points … Hoge was the only mid-tier option (3 were $7,500 or less and the other 3 were over $9,000 – including the two highest priced players)
2021: The winner checked in at $10,100 and scored 21 more DK points than anyone else
3 of the Top 4 scorers cost at least $9,700
2020: The winner checked in at $7,000 and scored 23.5 more DK points than anyone else
4 of the 5 highest priced golfers finished outside the Top 15 in DK scoring
2019: The winner checked in at $9,600 and scored 19.5 more DK points than anyone else
More stars and scrubs … each of the Top 6 scorers was priced under $7,500 or over $9,000
2018: The winner checked in at $7,100 and scored 20 more DK points than anyone else
Here are the DK price rankings of the Top 3 scorers for the week
T-61st: Ted Potter at $7,100
1st: Dustin Johnson at $11,700
4th: Jason Day at $10,900
— PM