Pebble Beach Finals Bets, Weather, DK Notes & Super Bowl Props
RUN THE SIMS SOLD!!!!!
PEBBLE QUICK NOTES
80 Players; Not Cut
Two different courses first 2 rounds
Rds 3 & 4 at Pebble Beach
Cold conditions
Scheffler & Spieth are back from Injury
NOTE: PME LIVE SHOW is aiming for June 7th in Toronto. Venue and time to come soon. Let us know if you’re planning on coming so we get the required space.
HOT LINKS
READ: Pebble Beach Picks, Bets, Course Preview
Pebble Beach DK Picks, Final Bets, Weather
Pebble Beach Picks, Bets and One & Done Selections
Pebble Beach Research, Sleepers, Preview, Guess The Odds
VOTE FOR THE 2025 CUSTY AWARDS
PEBBLE QUICK PICKS
WINNER
JT +1700
Cantlay +2300
Day +3500
MacIntyre +7500
BOMBS
Si WOOOOO +10000
Hubbard +17000 & Top 8
Nico +19000 & Top 8
Lower +20000 & Top 5
BAHRAIN CHAMPIONSHIP
Daniel Hillier +6000
Joe Dean (The Birdie Machine) +7000 & Top 5
Jason Scrivener +7500
Aadam Syed +40000 & Top 8
Bahrain First Round Leader
Aadam Syed +22500 & Top 5
I can’t guarantee much, but I can give you a GUARANTEED WINNER for the SUPER BOWL!!!! If you use code MAYO at sign up (or the link below) you’ll get a free pick to add to any Underdog Entry along with a potential $1000 BONUS!!! I even cooked up a SUPER BOWL + Pebble Beach entry to get ya going.
TAIL THIS ENTRY (or fade) & Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a FREE PICK and deposit bonus up to $1000
PEBBLE BEACH BETS
WINNER
Justin Thomas +1700 — Runners Up in two of his past three starts, JT has finally started rolling the ball with some consistent success on the greens. When his game hit the nadir, putting was the main culprit. If he has truly figured this out a win shouldn’t be out of the question.
Jason Day +3500 — No player has ever had so much success at a tournament without ever winning. Coming in striking his irons better than any point over the past three years, this could finally be Day’s year to check Pebble Beach off his career accomplishment list.
Patrick Cantlay +2300 — I came into the week with Day, JT and Cantlay circled from the research show. Then Cantlay slid a bit at some books and I got to boost him up to 23/1. Like Day, his course history is spectacular finishing inside the Top 11 each of his past four starts.
Robert MacIntyre +7500 — Coastal, cold, and potentially windy all weekend. On paper, this is a Bobby Mac Special. Through two starts in America in 2025, the driving, irons and short game have been excellent, he just happens to be losing a stroke per round to the field with his putter. These small Poa greens and be a nightmare for short misses, but they may roll linksy enough for Bobert to actually make some.
BOMBS
Si WOOOOO Kim +10000 — Si WOOOOO is finally back in the Si WOOOOOOO zone. Since very few short course host the top players in the world, Si WOO has won enough at these style of courses he gets over inflated in the betting market when it’s a weak field. Now back to triple digits, this where you want to make your outright wagers on him. I actually got in too early, have seen him as deep at 150/1 in places now.
Mark Hubbard +17000 & Top 8 — Long shots in an signature event aren’t generally the best looks, however at Pebble Beach there has been enough champions from the clouds to warrant a wager or two. Hubbard has been playing very solid golf to kick off 2025, and his general lack of elite driving skills should be less of a factor on this layout versus most others featuring the world top players. He picked up a T3 in Bermuda (a similar style course) in the Swing Season, and has posted a Top 20 each of the past two seasons in this event, including a T4 in last year’s shortened tournament.
Nico Echavarria +19000 & Top 8 — Even though it came against weaker fields, a win and a pair of 2nds in the past three months should everyone taking notice to Nico. Pebble should fit this iteration of his game well too. Average distance, plus accuracy, hits a ton of GIRs and gets insanely hot with the putter when it clicks. Sounds like the long shot profiles we’ve seen at Pebble in the past.
Justin Lower +20000 & Top 5 — I’ve been looking at Port Royal (Bermuda Championship) as a crossover cross for the back end of this field.
Here are the Top players in the field (per round) at Port Royal the past three years. REMEMBER: None of the good players have played in that event.
GET 20% OFF FANTASY NATIONAL TODAY!!!!!
EURO FUN COUPONS FOR BAHMAKEITRAIN CHAMPIONSHIP
Daniel Hillier +6000
Joe Dean (The Birdie Machine) +7000 & Top 5
Jason Scrivener +7500
Aadam Syed +40000 & Top 8
Bahrain First Round Leader
Aadam Syed +22500 & Top 5
Aadam Syed won the Bahrain Amateur Open at this course in October. It’s a weak field Euro event. I’ve made worse bets. Other than that I listened to Tom, Sky, and Axis for their euro insights.
PEBBLE POWER RANKINGS
A put the individual power rankings of the custom stat model in Monday’s Pebble Beach preview, this time around, I’ve use the same stats, but staggered the time frames together. These rankings show between 4 and 100 rounds, with the longer term baseline weighted more:
BUILD YOUR OWN CUSTOM RANKINGS (AND GET 20% OFF) AT FANTASY NATIONAL
Additionally, if you read last week, you heard my strategy on DraftKings Showdown: Stack north course, leave money on the table, and create lineups easy with Fantasy National.
You should really join Fantasy National and the full compliments of Tools, Stats, Data, and access to the best Leaderboard APP in the world. Here’s 20% OFF…
GET 20% OFF FANTASY NATIONAL TODAY!!!!!
SUPER BOWL & NFL AWARDS
It’s not like we’ve converted to full time golf while football’s biggest game is just over a week away. I got the guys from 4for4 to run through the first offerings on Super Bowl Props to find the current soft spots. Basically, the farther out you are OVERS are better bets. The closer we get to kickoff UNDERS become the play.
Super Bowl LIX: Prop Bets to Make You RICH (or at Least Entertained)
The NFL awards are this weekend, so we ran though the current odds (most of which are unbetable) while also covering our early spread leans for Super Bowl LIX. Oh, and Custs’s terrible business ideas.
NFL Awards Picks | Super Bowl 59 Parlay | Cust Corner: Mocktail Bar, Food in Foreign Countries
We managed to cobble together this Underdog Entry. Code Mayo will get you a GUARANTEED WINNING PICK to add to this entry and double the odds to 6x.
TAIL THIS ENTRY (or fade) & Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a FREE PICK and deposit bonus up to $1000
RUN THE SIMS
Oh, in YUGGGGGEEEEE personal news, Justin and I have sold Run The Sims to Endgame Syndicate. We took the product from inception to reality and then to the market and made it a sustainable business. This is the second business I’ve started and sold in this space now and it’s something I’m very proud of. Working with Justin was amazing, and couldn’t been easier and we’re excited to pass the product off to Bric, Dan and crew who really will take it to the next level. Thanks to every who took the chance and supported us at RTS. The product is only going to get better from here!
Pebble Weather
It looks kinda miserable at Pebble this week. There’s currently a freeze warning in affect at the moment. The first two rounds won’t see temperature get out of the 50s. Fortunately, there’s very little wind expected. The weekend? Good God. Both days will be around 55 degrees (that’s 12 celsius for the enlightened among us) with rain almost all day and winds well over 20mph.
Rain screwed up this event a year ago and, unfortunately, it may be a factor again this year. Pebble is one of the premiere showcase courses the tour has, I wonder if moving to later in the season is a discussion among the brass for 2026. (It won’t be. But it should be)
WIND TOWER: Pebble Beach/Lone Cypress
TEE TIMES
Even though this is still an elevated event, this tournament is still an Pro-Am for the first two rounds. I think they’re always merit in stacking guys playing the same course rotation just in case something funky happens at one of the courses no one can see coming. Obviously, if you’re playing a lineup for two, who cares. But if you’re playing a ton, if nothing else, it’s a way to get different.
PEBBLE DRAFTKINGS
I talked through the slate with Tambo LIVE Wednesday morning. We may actually switch to live while building lineups because it gave the viewers a chance to jump in and ask very good questions at the end about strategy for the week. But mainly we debated how owned Scheffler is going to be in his first week back. I thought it would be 20-23% in the main contests, while Tambo said over 30%. NOTE: He’s usually correct on these matters.
Pebble Beach DraftKings Picks, Lineups, No Cut Strategy
Being a no-cut, 80 player field, everyone’s ownership will be increased, more so at the top end since there are so few options to choose between. I still think Cantlay/Morikawa/Thomas end up about as chalky as Scottie, but I’m willing to concede my original projection was a tad low. Initially, I had day in this category too, but there’s been a lot of steam for Sungjae and they’ll likely chop up the ownership. I still much prefer Day.
What’s important in a week like this is identifying the soft spots in the ownership and picking the right ones to use as leverage. So above 9K: Rory, Fleetwood, Burns (and maybe Ludvig) are projecting to be well behind the rest in popularity. In the second tier choose correctly from Viktor, Conners, Finau, Will Z and Theegala and you may win all the money.
Down low, expect Hodges to be paired with Scottie a ton to save money. And while Hodges is a solid play at 6200, he’s really no different than almost everyone else around him. I’ll be using Rodgers, Lower, Nico, Griffin, and Horschel from 6600 and below.