Pebble Beach Bets, DK Own
+ Props, UFC, EURO
Pebble Beach WDs
First Will Z pulled out, then Wednesday night we we get this from Daniel Berger…
The man of many question marks, John HUHHH????? also WD’d, but that’s likely of less concern.
REMINDER: Lineup LOCK is at 1130am ET on Thursday this week.
2022 Pebble CONTENT HUB
PEBBLE BEACH BETS
On the surface, it looks like I wagered way more than normal. But in lieu of taking on the FRL or Top 20 market, I just made some small bets on some SUPER BOMBS for the entire tournament. It actually turned out to be a lot less than normal. More on that here…
Since I saved cash on my normal betting card, I decided to do this. THREE EVENT WINNER/EACH WAY PARLAYS!!!!!
And that’s how you give money won back to the sportsbooks.
Problem with the cheatsheet now is: I made the bets before Will Z and Berger pulled out, so nothing close to these numbers exist anymore.
From DKSB following Berger WD…
From this pack, I probably still like Spieth the best, but that number is gross. the value area may actually now be Kiz/Streelman/Lanto range since they didn’t move much at all even following two of the Top 4 players in the field pulling out.
Jordan Spieth — It’s been a tough go for Spieth since losing at The Open Championship in 2021, but, even at his worst, he still delivered at Pebble Beach. The wedge play is worrisome, yet his short game magic and ability to figure out these tiny greens make him worth the gamble on track record alone. Plus, we’re getting a discount price for a weak field based on his recent results.
Lucas Glover — The GLOVE was a last second add. I’ve bet the guy twice already in 2022, why jump ship now at while the irons are still good. He has gone T50/T7/T11 in his last three Pebble Beach Pro-Ams.
Andrew Putnam — Currently playing his best golf in year, Putnam is overachieving in irons, short game, and putting to begin the year. It’s one major flaw, driving, is mitigated by the wide fairways, lack of penal rough and distance at the Pro-Am rotation. Additionally, over the past 24 rounds, per Fantasy National, he’s 10th in the field in opportune gained and sixth in proximity from 125-150 yards with Poa being his best putting surface, gaining +0.42 SG:Putt/round.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout — I worry about the place of Pebble Bach experience but his skill set certainly fits these courses. His one critical flaw, driving, won’t matter as much as most weeks. Great news for one of the best short iron players and putters on planet earth.
For the Props market I’m digging the digging the single day stat market on Prize Picks
If you haven’t used Prize Picks before, you can get a $100 deposit match with code “MMN” on first deposit essentially giving you a free $100 to throw down this week to get your feet wet. Just use code “MMN” on the deposit page. Plus, they’re going to essentially have a FREE MONEY square for the Super Bowl, so may as well get in now.
For first round plays, they’re only offering guys playing Pebble Beach, so I decided to focus on “Fairways Hit” since the field average at PB GL for driving accuracy is 70%. So here a look at the players offered over their last 50 rounds in Fairways gained.
And here are those same players in rounds only from Pebble Beach GL…
So that led me to Knox, Dahmen and Fitzpatrick’s overs. Problem is, on Prize Picks, you MUST have an under somewhere. I decided to roll the dice on Jimmy Walker under 10.5 GIRs in round one, but I don’t have the most confidence in that. Hence, why it’s a FLEX play (where 3/4 correct win) rather than a POWER PLAY that would play 10x my wager.
Rick went this way…
Maybe you can find some under you like better. Code “MMN”.
GALAXY BRAIN: TAILING A HOT PAT MAYO
So things worked out last week. Having one runner on the final day is fun, having the two guys in the playoff is the best kind of sweat: stress free! Maybe one strong week makes me less likely to be on point this week, but it won’t be for a lack of effort! If you have Luke List money in your pockets and want a reasonably simple path to talk yourself into a longer this week: I am here for you.
We are dealing with three different courses this week with limited data, so there’s that. That said, there are two rounds on Pebble Beach and the wind is (at the moment) expected to not be a factor. Now, could that change? Of course, but winning these bets involves telling yourself a story and right now, calm wind is a part of my story. If we look at this field, over their past 36 rounds in calm conditions on average-to-easy scoring courses that play under 7,200 yards, and trim it down to the players that rank top-30 in BOTH fairways and opportunities gained:
Like we’ve been saying all week … top of the board (Berger/Rose) or shoot your shot on a lottery ticket. Let’s keep it simple to pair down this group: who ranks top-20 in this field in SG: Par 4’s in those same conditions from above?
If you wanted to stop here and Stars/Scrubs lineup into a GPP tournament:
If you’re trying to pick a winner for this thing (and whose not?), you’re going to need to ride a hot putter. Small greens and we’ve already gotten you to the green in the previous steps, so who profiles as someone that can knock down putts on Poa? Here are the SG:P Poa rankings over the past 36 rounds of our remaining five guys:
Kuchar – 2nd
Berger – 6th
Moore – 31st
Rose – 33rd
Dahmen – 132nd
So there ya go … Kuchar! Hell, on DraftKings Sports Book, you can bet him top-5 at a better price than you get Berger to win the whole thing. I’ve wasted money on dumber things. He’s even money to finish in the top-40 this week and as long as we are going that low, Moore is +230 to finish top 40. Again: top of the board or move down the list. That’s how I’m looking at this Pro-Am and there are some of the names that follow this specific narrative.
UFC VEGAS 47
The picks from Paul and Cody ARE OUT!!!!!
And when Cody loses, you better believe he pays it off
EURO & SAUDI
You saw I made some selections for both event, but really, I was just clicking buttons. Sky and Tom have the goods on the preview show
Here’s what Sky is doing with bets this week…
Pebble Beach DraftKings Ownership
Berger WDing last minute throws ownership projections out the window. I’d imagine the Spieth ownership goes from around 10% to above 20% while most of the $9K range sees a marginal increase as anyone with a lineup already will just go to the next closest players. Cantlay will get a HUGE boost for anyone who hasn’t made a lineup yet too. I’d expect Cantlay and Mav pushing 30%, maybe 35-40, in larger GPPs at this point.
Fitz, Kisner, and Palmer all seem like the lowest owned, still, from the top end.
I ended up building 50 lineups this week, and allocated 20 of them as course stacks. So I Made 10/5/5 with players taking on the same courses every day and hoping to get lucky. It also gives me really weird combos no one would ever land on.
Starting at MP
Starting at SH
Starting at PB
BYE WEEK NFL + CUST CORNER
For a week without football, the NFL did us a solid in the news department to give me, Cust and Geoff something to talk about.
Here’s the email cust received btw. It’s actually stunning he hasn’t fallen for a Nigerian Prince Scam to date. That he’s told us about, at least.
If you didn’t know, I’m doing a vid a week during the playoffs over at Oddschecker, and they keep handing me stuff to giveaway. This week, it’s a Signed Stafford Rams lid.