NFL TOOLS
The Run The Sims founder’s rate (lock in the cheap rate FOR LIFE) ends on July 31. The site is free right now so you have a chance to sample the goods, but if you like how Fantasy National allows you to customize whatever you want you’re going to love the same process for NFL simulations, projections, and the optimizer.
PLUS, you can get that founder’s rate along with a discount at https://www.runthesims.com/mayo
Easy game. Go check it out.
Olympic Golf
With the dual withdrawals of Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau, the Olympic golf field - already a bit lacking - has taken a hit, especially with the Rahm withdrawal. Bryson has been replaced in the field with Patrick Reed, who flew in from Minnesota on Monday after playing the 3M, and Rahm has been replaced by Jorge Campillo. The Rahm withdrawal has slashed everyone’s odds, meaning the numbers we had available to us when I recorded the Picks show with Geoff aren’t available anymore, unfortunately. I really liked Lowry, but didn’t pull the trigger and his odds got cut in half on me, so I passed. Knowing this, he’ll likely win now.
In terms of the great “motivation” debate with Si Woo and Sungjae, both need a medal this week to avoid compulsory military service. This has caused a lot of people to bet one or both of those to win, but as Geoff said on the show last week, there could be a chance they try and protect third place on Sunday instead of gunning for gold - but how the pressure will play out in terms of outright bets is hard to say. You would also have to think Hideki is also feeling the pressure of a home Olympics, for whatever that is worth.
Also, Geoff and I are betting on Brooke Henderson at 25/1 in the women’s tourney, because we’re feeling patriotic.
Olympic Odds And Ends
DraftKings lock is 6:30PM Eastern on Wednesday night, so be aware of that when you’re making your DK lineups. My Olympic Preview with Morency and Cust has mostly avoided going out of date, but even where it hasn’t, you can laugh at Cust’s terrible takes and curses. And he’s already heavily cursed two of his picks.
Football
Fantasy Football Picks And Bets is still going strong, with another show this week with Cust. We talked Jets, made some picks for y’all to fade, and just generally listened to his insanity. Also, he said he didn’t think Aaron Rodgers would be coming back to Green Bay and then it broke he’s coming back shortly after release, so the Curse is still alive and well.
We need to hammer the Apple reviews to launch into the algo properly, so, as is tradition, I’m giving away STRAIGHT CASH to you good people. The pot is at $500 right now, I’ll up it to $1000 or $1500 if the reviews really start to come in, so……….
CLICK HERE to get to the show on Apple Podcasts
1. SUBSCRIBE
2. RATE 5 STAR
3. Leave a short review
4. Put you Twitter Handle or Email in the review.
DONE. Takes like 26 seconds.
If you want to get ahead on the content, the Wednesday evening episode is ALREADY FINISHED. It’s Dallas Cowboys over/under season props and projections and RB handcuff rankings with Jake Ciely. Watch it here.
Olympics Fantasy Props
Got a lean on the Olympics but don’t have a place to bet outrights? You’re in luck. Prize Picks released it’s over/under finishing position props. ANDDDDDDDD Prize Picks is matching all deposits up to $100 with code “MMN” so you’ll get up to $100 in BONUS MONEY so if you strike out this time, you’ll have a FREE reload ready to go.
Sign up for Prize Picks HERE!!!!
You’d think I would have learned my lesson to play it safe, but, NOPPPPEEEEEE lets go with MUST HIT ALL THREE play for MAX WINNINGS (likely losings)
Under is the better finishing position btw. IN case you’re somehow reading this but don’t understand how golf works.
Fantasy Football Rankings
Football doesn’t end there tho. Me and Adam Levitan got together, shot the shit and updated my overall rankings and talked latest news. That’s out now.
On Thursday, my RB tiered rankings come out. Since all I’ve been doing the last two days is filming and editing, that too is done. And you can get it a full 24 hours early if you literally have nothing left on your feed to watch.
I actually hope that isn’t the case.
If you’re looking for the Updated TOP 150 1/2 PPR list, it be here.
GOLF CONTENT
In case you missed anything
DraftKings Picks
Research and Stats
Picks & Bets
Course & Picks Article
DraftKings Cheatsheet
Euro Tour Picks & Bets
I didn’t run a listener’s league this week, but Tambo and Kenny have one. Join that one. Link is here.
DraftKings Golf
It’s a 60 man field and there’s no cut, so however you usually play WGCs, this is the strategy this week. With all of your players guaranteed 72 holes, that could lead you to more of a stars and scrubs approach, but the 6k range is pretty terrible this week, so a balanced build could be the route. I went over all this with Rasa on the DK picks show on Tuesday. In terms of ownership, Jhonny Vegas is probably going to be the chalk outside the top, off his T2 in Minnesota and at his depressed price of $7400. Si Woo at $7800 is also going to be chalk, with the military service narrative in the air, but it’s Si Woo, I’m going there. Also, on the DraftKings show, Rasa said that Matthias Schwab was gonna win, for what it’s worth to you.
In terms of avoiding getting duped, one of the strategies is leaving money on the table. Rick Gehman has the stats - ~83% of lineups spend at least 49.8K and ~94.5% of lineups spend at least 49.5K, so if you’re trying to be unique, leaving some money on the table is one way to avoid getting duped, even if you do want to play some chalkier plays.
Ownership Guesses (And it truly is a fucking guess this week. Well, more of an uninformed guess than normal.)
Viktor Hovland 31
Henrik Norlander 27
Jhonny Vegas 26
Mito Pereira 25
Paul Casey 25
Xander Schauffele 24
I’d give +/- 10 percentage points on those numbers. I can never accurately tell in these small field events.
Weather
No real tee splits this week with the condensed field, and the only adverse wind is projected for Thursday evening Japan time, so the chances of weather deciding the medalists seems low. That said, this is the wind tower I’m using, if you’re interested in checking again before lock.
CUST CORNER
We’re recording a couple CUST CORNERS before the start of football season. For one of them, we’re thinking about taking viewer suggestions, so, if you have a Cust Corner topic, send it to dearcusty@gmail.com.
Good luck this week.
— PM