Patrick Reed is WD 37 Mins before lock. GET HIM OUT!!!!
I hope you see this in time.
WANT FREE MONEY????
The Cash giveaway comes to end Thursday (watch that show to see if you won btw. It’s NFL with Jake Ciely), but you have one more night to enter if you haven’t already. It will only take nine more reviews to bump to the giveaway prize pool to $1500. Please give us an assist…
2. RATE 5 STAR
3. Leave a short review
4. Put your Twitter Handle or Email in the review.
btw Fantasy Football Picks and Bets is going to be covering Thursday, Friday, and Saturday DraftKings and Prize Picks NFL Preseason games. I’ll be hosting Thursday evening, and newcomers to the Network Scott Simpson & Lauren Carpenter will be hosting Wednesday and Friday. We have great guests lined up too. LaQuon Jones made his debut on MMN Monday morning, and I’d be awesome if you’d lend them a follow on Twitter
Since you’re already in a charitable mood, we need those sub numbers UPPPP on the Mayo Media YouTube channel. If you haven’t already, take the four seconds, and throw us a bone and sub the channel. Shit like this means a ton to us.
That’s it. good luck in the contest, and make sure to read everything this week. There’s a secret show you may want NOW hidden in this somewhere.
PICKS & BETS
The Tour heads up to Jersey City this week, where the Top 125 (minus Louis, who is out of the field, suffering from a neck injury) in FedEx Cup points are trying, desperately, to make it to the next week. Liberty National last held this event in 2019, which was won by Patrick Reed at -16. That leaderboard - Reed, Ancer, Varner, Rahm, Scott, McIlroy, Louis, in the wilderness Spieth, and Snedeker were your Top 9 guys - does not suggest a particular preference for distance. The other recent event of note here was the 2017 Presidents Cup, where Dustin got 4.5 points and Reed, Spieth, Thomas, and Mickelson all got 3.5. Does it mean anything? Probably not, but if you want an excuse to bet any of those guys, there you have one.
As Geoff always says on these shows, the cream rises to the top in the Playoffs - the four Playoff, non-Tour Championship winners since the playoff revamp of 2019 have been Reed, JT, Dustin, and Rahm, and even before that at this event (but not this course), Dustin beat Spieth in a playoff and Bryson beat Finau. Betting the top of the board has generally been the route to go, but obviously it’s hard to find the right guy at the top. Rory and Berger very much fit into this history, which is why I’m betting them. (Don’t ask about Aaron Wise, I’m bad at this.)
Also, this week’s golf show has Cust on for like half an hour of Ryder Cup talk and then general Cust insanity, so it was a really good show, so make sure you double back on that one if you didn’t get a chance to see it.
Yes, I bit on Hideki and Finau. I think this is the first time I’ve bet on Finau in years, so now I can experience the pain along with you all for once. The odds are deep enough for an each way, so it is finally a moment for me and Finau. If he somehow wins, I guarantee I’ll have the best lifetime on Finau bets.
We’re going back to the well
ANDDDD, rumors are, any one who signs up using code MMN or just through this link, will be granted access to the Mayo NFL Prop competition. I’m currently working through the details right now, but I plan on having a season long props contest, where you pick in the preseason for all year over/under, then have a weekly contest for props in season. Just figuring out the logistics now, also, what the prizes are going to be.
Again, here’s the link to deposit, and that link will get you a deposit match up to $100. So, deposit $100, get $200. Not a bad situation.
This is what I’m doing on golf this week:
Maybe you have better picks from these…
Week 1 Player Props have been released on some spots, mainly Prize Picks, and I did a video looking at the early lines, using the NOW AVAILABLE Run The Sims betting tools.
Here’s how it works. Let’s look at Brandon Aiyuk’s Week 1 receiving over/under: 64.5.
Then we go to the Player Prop Tool on RunTheSims.com and punch in the data. It even has the line on each site as a field to ensure that a bet is still profitable at that number.
Turns out the under is looking good week one based on the simulations of the SF/DET Week 1 game.
The season long tools are going to be free all year for NFL, but if you want the betting tools, DFS optimizer, for the custom game simulations, that’s gonna require a credit card. (These weren’t cheap to develop!). I do have a discount for you though. Just go to www.runthesims.com/mayo and you’ll get $50 the biggest bundle or $25 off each of the smaller bundles.
Oh, if you’re actually reading this far into the newsletter, THANKS!!!! And since you’ve been so kind, here’s a link to the secret Cust Corner we recorded Monday morning. I’m not going to mention it anywhere for the moment, so it’s my exclusive surprise to you. I haven’t even done the write up or time codes for it yet. Enjoy.
I actually did some more research after the DraftKings show with Reid, and found some more $6K losers to waste money on as they will almost assuredly destroy you lineups.
Adam Hadwin $6,700
Not quite sure how I overlooked the Canadian, but I finally got there. Hadwin’s ball striking, albeit in versus weak fields at 3M and Wyndham, has been excellent in his past two starts. That’s fresh off losing off the tee in save straight and four straight starts with his irons. That’s how the B2B Top 10s have piled up. He’s back to getting fairways at a high clip and we know how scorching his putter can get when it’s not.
Sepp Straka $6,400
Straka is all over the place. He’s posted three Top 15s or and 3 missed cuts in his past six starts. Sounds prime for a GPP filer if you’re trying to jam in the top guys. On a positive note, in his past two MCs, he gained with his irons, and actually drove the ball quite well at the 3M en route to chipping and putting his way to an early flight to Toyko. His baseline putting number are good, he’s just one of the those players who tends to gain a lot or lose a lot, if this is a spike week, he’ll pay off the price.
Anirban Lahiri $6,100
The Indian’s gained off the tee in six consecutive events and in each of the last two with his irons. Unlike Straka where he vacillates between great and horrendous putting weeks, Lahiri is generally bad. While it’s an outlier, he does possess that massive upside flat stick week. He gained 5.9 at Barbasol and 6.2 at Valero in April. In fact, he has as many events with over 4 SG: PUTT in his career than finishes between 0-1.0 SG: PUTT. Just pray it’s one of those weeks and you have a potential bargain basement pick that allows access to two 10K+ options.
It looks like it will be an intermittently windy weekend in Jersey City, with Friday and Sunday looking particularly gusty. There doesn’t appear to be a split advantage as of now, but check back before lock if you’re curious. It doesn’t seem heavy enough to change your player pools to more of an Open Championship-style “wind specialists” type approach, but it’s worth keeping in mind.
This is the last full field event of the season, but the 124 man field does mean that a higher proportion of the field makes the cut than in a usual Tour week with 144 or 156 players in the world. Also, in theory, the bottom end should be better, given they had to qualify for it, and you don’t have the combination of scrubs and names that aren’t good anymore that clutter the rest of the Tour season.
Really feels like Morikawa is going to be the chalk at the top, with Rahm so expensive at the top and Morikawa being fifth in the field in pricing. I said on the DraftKings show he feels underpriced, and he is - but that also means that everyone else knows that.
Rough Ownership guesses:
D + D Czech Masters
Tom and Sky are all over the Euro Tour again this week, and they are actually good at picks, so if you want to make your losing Northern Trust picks back, watch them, and they’ll actually give out winners.
Cody and Paul are back after a week off, and they also make you a lot of money, so go watch Dog Or Pass to see what the plays are for this week’s card. That’ll be out WEDNESDAY NIGHT
The vid will be up on MMN’s YouTube channel (SUB!!!) and here are the Pod links