NCAA Charity Bracket + Valspar Notes
I’ve combined forced with Fantasy Cares to create the MAYO MADNESS NCAA Charity Bracket this year. The Bracket is FREE to play, and for every FREE entry that is entered, $1 is donated to Fantasy Cares. You’re going to fill out a bracket anyway, may as well throw your picks into this one too and help support a great cause. Help share it around so we can raise as much money as possible.
JOIN FREE MAYO MADNESS CHARITY BRACKET
And it’s not like you can’t win some bucks as well.
First Place | $2,500.00
Second Place | $1,000.00
Third Place | $500.00
Fourth Place | $300.00
Fifth Place | $200.00
Three Entries to the 2023 Scott Fish Bowl are up for grab
One entry will be awarded to one randomly chosen Entrant from all Contest entries.
One entry will be awarded to one randomly chosen Entrant from all Entrants who correctly select the Tournament Champion.
One entry will be awarded to one randomly chosen Entrant from all Entrants who have the most Contest points after the first round of the Tournament.
We’ve already broken the bracket on the PME with Rasa and Cust.
WATCH: 2023 MARCH MADNESS BRACKET PICKS
Here are our picks. You probably don’t want to tail a bracket which has an 8-Seed winning.
If you’re running a bracket pool (or any pool, fantasy league, etc) you should really be using Leaguesafe to keep the money safe. I’ve seen too many pool watch the collector simply walk away with the money without paying out. Leaguesafe makes it easy to deposit and, if you’re a already trustworth, the convenience in collecting the money is well worth it. Just send a link, people can deposit and the funds are there. No tracking people down for cash.
USE LEAGUESAFE TO HANDLE POOL COLLECTION & PAYOUTS
GIVEAWAY
We gave away $500 last Wednesday, and Tambo was good enough to match that for this week. There are three ways to get into the draw for the $500 (Winner Announced on this Wednesday’s show)
10 Ballots — Subscribe PME Podcast on Apple or Spotify, leave a 5-Star Review, include your email or twitter handle in the review and you’re good.
Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
7 Ballots — Follow Tambo on Twitter
And you probably wanna be following Tambo anyway, Guy’s on a heater right now…
Valspar Championship
WATCH: Valspar Picks, Research, Guess The Odds, Course Preview
Course
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)
Yardage: 7,340
Par: 71
Greens: Bermuda
Par 3s (5): Average length of 212 yards, three of five play longer than that
Seven holes on this course had a sub-11% birdie rate a year ago and four of the Par 3s were a part of that
Par 4s (9): Average length of 441 yards, one short one (380) drags down the average a bit with the majority measuring 445+ yards
The three toughest holes on this course are all Par 4s (Holes 3-6-16), all of which carried a bogey or worse rate over 24.5% last year
Par 5s (4): Average length of 582.5 yards, a number that is boosted by the 605-yard fifth hole
These are the easiest four holes on the course and the three shortest ones had a birdie rate that was more than 3x the bogey rate
Past Winners
2022 Sam Burns -17
2021 Sam Burns -17
2019 Paul Casey -8
2018 Paul Casey -10
2017 Adam Hadwin -14
2016 Charl Schwartzel -7
2015 Jordan Spieth -10
2022: Sam Burns (-17, playoff win over Davis Riley)
Burns was the Round 1 leader with a 64 and carded four rounds in the 60s
Burns lost strokes off the tee … but he was the only top-15 finisher to do so
2021: Sam Burns (-17, three clear of Keegan Bradley)
Burns’ 63 on Friday was the round of the tournament and he carded four rounds in the 60s
11 of the top-12 finishers gained strokes on approach and with the putter
2019: Paul Casey (-8, one clear of Jason Kokrak and Louis Oosthuizen)
His 66 on Friday was the round of the day and he gained 5+ strokes on the two golfers that finished T-2 for the tournament
11 of the top-12 finishers gained around the green
2018: Paul Casey (-10. One clear of Tiger Woods and Patrick Reed)
He closed with a 65, his best round of the tournament by three strokes and five strokes better than Tiger
Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia were able to cash top-5 paychecks while losing a stroke+ with the putter (both were in the top 5 in approach)
2017: Adam Hadwin (-14, one clear of Patrick Cantlay)
His 64 on Friday was the round of the day and proved to be the difference (Cantlay: 66)
Finishes for the top 5 in approach this week: 11-1-2-14-5
2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7, playoff win over Bill Haas)
Was five back of Haas entering Sunday (shot a 67, his best round of the tournament and the best round on the course that day)
Eight of the top-10 finishers gained strokes putting in the 15-20’ range
2015: Jordan Spieth (-10, playoff win over Sean O’Hair and Patrick Reed)
Consistency won out: Spieth shot 67-70 every day (the two runner-ups had a 72 prior to the weekend that ended up making a big difference)
Field
144 Players
Top 65 & Ties Make the Cut
First Tee: Thursday, March 16
Defending Champion: Sam Burns
Here were my odds guesses for the Valspar Opening
It’s not great…
Geoff and I will break this all down on Monday’s show, but it’s slim pickings this week in Tampa. Here’s what my first run of numbers are tellling me coming out of the PLAYERS
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DraftKings Notes
Birdie Streak: Front to back is the way to go. Holes 9-10-11-12 all ranked in the top-half of holes last season for scoring (all had a birdie rate north of 12.5%), with 11-12 both being among the five easiest. Trying to go the other direction is a little reckless … sure, you get #1, the easiest hole on the course and owner of a 40.8% birdie rate, but the end of the back-9 is brutal with 16-17-18 ranking among the seven toughest on the course. For showdown, start on the front: you get the good mental vibes of starting with a birdie and then can build a streak as you enter the back-9.
2022: Chalky Sam Burns paid off at $9,600, but he was one of only three golfers priced $9,000 or higher that finished in the top-14 DK scorers for the week
2021: There was no wrong pricing structure this week. Of the 13 golfers who scored 80+ DK points … four carried a sub-$7,000 price tag, four were over $9,000 and three of the top-4 scorers for the week were $7,900-$8,400.
2019: Five of the top-9 in DK pricing missed the cut, three of the four that played the weekend were top-6 scorers on DK for the week.
2018: Three of the top-4 DK scorers cost at least $9,500, but that’s not to say punt plays didn’t cash … five of the top-9 DK scorers cost you $7,700 or less.
2017: The top-7 scorers in terms of DK points were all sub-$8,000 while six of the top-7 in pricing failed to score even 61 DK points.
— PM