Mexico Open Cheatsheet: Bets, Picks, Weather, DraftKings Notes

Mayo Media

Feb 20, 2025

Weather Perfect
Water only Protection on course
Slow Greens
Distance extra valuable

QUICK BETS

Mexico Winner

S. Stevens +2800
M. Kim +3000
K. Yu +4000
J. Knapp +5500
N. Hojgaard +5500
EVR + 6600
Rozner +8000

BOMBS

Lawrence +11000 (With Top 5)
KH Lee +12500 (With Top 5)

First Round Leader

EVR +6000 (With Top 5)
Skinns +20000 (With Top 5)
Cristobal Del Solar +20000 (With Top 5)

Capmos

Top 10 +3000
Top 20 +1100

KENYA

Guido +3700
Njonge Kibugu +450000 (With 12 Places)

First Round Leader

Njonge Kibugu +40000 (With 5 Places)

TOP 20

Njonge Kibugu +4500

HOT LINKS

Mexico Open DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Final Bets, Weather, One and Done

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Mexico Open Picks, Research, Sleepers, Course Preview, Guess The Odds

VOTE FOR THE 2025 CUSTY AWARDS

Sam Stevens — The form is good, the skill set is a match and in his putter is in form. Two of past three starts have come in signature events, so a step back in field strength should elevate him further. Plus, Vidanta is one of the TOUR’s easiest around the green courses which has been the worst part of his game in 2025. He’ll probably come in last now.

Michael Kim — Historically, we wouldn’t really give much thought to MK at course like Vidanta, but Kim has worked on increasing distance and the results have been the last two weeks are driver heavy course: T2 in Phoenix/T13 at Torrey Pines. While he’s only made one cut in two starts in Mexico, it was mainly due to terrible driving efforts including a -4.6 SG: OTT (in two rounds) performance a year ago. Yet, he’s been excellent on and around greens in those starts. If he keep his driver and irons hot south of the boarder and pair with his short game work, Kim may get back into the winners circle for the first time since the 2018 John Deere Classic.

Kevin YUUUUUUUUUU — A lot Stevens, but gains more with his driver and irons. Just say a quick prayer before the tournament starts it’s not one of the weeks he putts himself out of the event by the turn Thursday.

Jake Knapp — Finished sixth T2G at Torrey Pines last week and, if you recall, is the defending champion at this venue. If he was among the betting favorites I’d likely pass, but he’s strongly down the down board, so I’m in.

Nicolai Hojgaard — Nicolai couldn’t stop missing fairways in Phoenix. This lead to an abysmal week in OTT and ARG. Yet it was still able to gain distance on the field despite trekking through the desert like he was TE Lawrence. Now, if he decides to get wet all week off the tee there’s very little hope, but if it’s merely the rough when he misses the fairway, there are some nice indicators from that performance in Scottsdale. He not only gained 4.9 strokes on approach, but gained more every round, with a lot of that damage coming on shots from beyond 200 yards.

Erik Van Rooyen — It’s been about brutal start to the season for EVR. Except for the round one front nine at Pebble Beach. That was electric. But this is a bet on history of skill and results. His driver has become a major issue since last summer. He normally hovered in the Top 25% of the field off the tee for the past few years, but has lost more than a stroke to the field in four of his past seven starts. And some of those were not against the world’s best.

Antoine Rozner — Fresh off a 4th place finish in Qatar, ROZ is seemingly perfectly suited for Mexico. Plus distance against this field and elite ball striking when he’s on. Which he has been more often than not lately. He got back on track with his performance in Qatar, but was electric to end the DP World Tour season in the fall with 4th in Korea, T6 in Abu Dhabi, and a T3 at the DP World Tour Champions finishing only behind Rory and Rasmus Hojgaard. He’s contended in far stronger fields than this, and he’s being priced like a guy who is struggling for status on Korn Ferry.

Thriston Lawrence — He’s been awful for months now. Don’t care. This is my guy. He has four wins on the Euro Tour in the past four years and, despite a plethora of missed cuts, had nine Top 10s in 2024 including a T4 at The Open. Basically, he’s drinking at the bar Friday evening or playing for a big pay day Sunday. Hence the Top 5 attached to the win. Stay thirsty my friends.

KH Lee — It hasn’t been great for TPC Lee, but he’s churned out good results at the courses at some of the driver heavy, spray and pray courses I’ve been targeting — two wins at Craig Ranch, 2 Top 10s at 3M, and a T9 at Torrey a few weeks back — despite not being the longest of hitters. It’s a shot in the dark, but there are very few players in the field who have won twice on TOUR in the past five years.

Here’s a full list of the best per round players at the courses I looked at if you’re curious

Set the Fantasy National filters to:

Rounds: Past 24
Years: 2023/2024/2025
Courses: Torrey Pines North & South, Criag Ranch, TPC Scottsdale, TPC Craig Ranch, PGA National, Detroit GC

GET 20% OFF FANTASY NATIONAL STATS/TOOLS TODAY!!!!!

I saw this tweet from Mike Miller who made a compelling case for a potential Capmos spike. Dude is nails on Paspalum greens.

Magical Kenya

Were just have fun losing money over here, OK? Once every 56 life times the Kibuguman makes use rich.

NFL RANKINGS

As is tradition, just after the Super Bowl, Geoff makes his NFL team rankings based on how the fanbases of those teams feel after the season. It’s weird. Which makes the show quite fun. If you need a time killer, this is the show for you. We also get Cust’s takes on SNL 50 and Canada/USA hockey.

NFL Power Rankings By Team 2025 | Cust On: USA/Canada 4 Nations Face-Off, SNL 50

TICKETS TO PME LIVE SHOW JUNE 7th GO ON SALE SOON!!!!!! SUB TO THE FREE MMN NEWSLETTER TO GET AN EMAIL SENT WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE!!!!!!

UNDERDOG

Just hoping three of the guys I bet on come out firing in Round one and shoot -3 or better. Doesn’t seem like that big of a task at an easy course. Just don’t tell EVR there’s water everywhere, OK? I used the 50% LUKA BOOST in the lobby to get the better odds. That’s available to everyone until the end of Wednesday night.

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ANNNNNDDDDDDD there are a bunch of awesome Best Ball PGA Drafts starting at The Masters on Underdog too. My rankings were FIRE for segment one for the season-long Best Ball Drafts (hopefully the rest of the year keeps going as well), and I’ll have shows and full rankings and strategy for both of these formats coming soon. One is just the four Majors, the other is every tournament from Masters through The Open. I’ll break down both very soon.

But I do have one fail safe tip. Use code MAYO at first deposit and you’ll get up to $1000 in bonus cash. Then use that bonus cash for all your drafts and you’ll still have your original investment still in your account to play around will. It’s basically a free roll at the $50K first prize.

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WEATHER/TEE TIMES

The weather is HOT in Mexico (shocking) but wind gusts are not forecasted to crack 8mph all week. So no wave advantage is noticeable. But you can see for yourself if you like.

WIND TOWER: Licenciado Gustavo Díaz Ordaz International Airport

DRAFTKINGS

Nothing has really changed for me from what I said on the show. I built some Akshay and Kitayama lineups with Tambo as examples and entered them, but when it came to my builds across the other 45 lineups I generates, I faded everyone 10K and over and Alex Smalley. Figured that was the easiest way to get different this week since most people appear to be on all the same players.

Mexico Open DraftKings Picks, Lineups

Overall, Akshay will likely be the highest owned player overall, but I think Aaron Rai, Harry Hall, Beau Hossler, and Ben Griffin end up being the lower owner expensive players. I decided to push on Rai from that group and leave the rest aside.

Down low, here’s who I ended up on: