Mexico Open Bets, DK Picks/Ownership, Projections
I hope you’ve all been having a good week in the absence of Mexico Open content from me. OH WAIT… I filmed this from the beach in Aruba. Mainly to inspire you: You can lose golf bets every week and still have the confidence to TREAT YO SELF to a nice vacay.
If seeing another man sans shirt at the beach makes you uncomfortable, I’d recommend seeing a therapist. But I’m pretty sure you know the answer yourself.
Although I cannot play DraftKings this week, I wouldn’t leave you in the wind without some MEXICO OPEN STAT POWER RANKINGS. In fact, this is a perfect week to utilize the tools at Fantasy National. There’s a ton of group think this week. People get lazy, many of the regular writers and podcasts who drive narratives surrounding players take this week off, so it’s a perfect time to do your own digging and commit to a few plays no one else is on.
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If you NEEEEEDDDDDD a Mexico Open DK breakdown, you are in luck. I got Tambo to fill in for me, and James to fill in for Tambo and they broke down the field and made lineups in my place (even made a MAYO LINEUP). It’s up on MMN and the PME Pod feeds NOW
WATCH: 2024 Mexico Open DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Weather Report | Head-To-Head Lineup Draft
WEATHER
Better than it has been all year, baby.
DRAFTKINGS OWNERSHIP
I’m guessing the popular names at the top of the pricing actually come in higher than the current projections. That’s what seems to happen in weak field events like this.
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From below 8K, beyond Vegas, I’d bet on Sam Stevens, Carson Young, SH Kim, and Andrew Novak all being higher owned than expected.
If you’re simply looking to get different at the top, start you team with Olesen, Hughes to Fox and do whatever you want. Nothing points to Mac Hughes, but taking him in a glorified putting contest may have some upside. And there’s no reason for a player of Fox’ quality to be so under owned in contests this week.
PME SHOWS!!!!
Even thought I’m away, I’ve still been releasing NEW content. I wouldn’t just abandon everyone like that. I know how pissed I get when my fav podcasts take a break and I have nothing to help me kill my days.
Reminder you can sub to the audio pods here:
Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
First up, Me and Cust listen to Geoff’s rankings on which NFL teams had the best season based on his personal metrics. We take issue with some.
WATCH: 2024 NFL Power Rankings | Which NFL Teams had the Best Season?
Then, on the complete other end of the spectrum, me, Geoff, and Pizzola sit down and try to answer the question of what we change first about sports betting. From limiting players to posted limits to offering both sides of a bet and more. This was a really fun one.
WATCH: Things that Need to Change in Sports Betting: What Would You do if you Were Sports Gambling Czar?
BETS
Tony Finau — I gave this out the week of the Sentry. I don’t have the most faith in Tony at this point, but that number was out of whack. Had to take it.
Jake Knapp —With the potential for a wind direction shift because the event moving from May to February, driving distance may be worth more this week than originally thought. Knapp has no shortage of distance. He made a run at Torrey Pines (T3), which is shown some crossover of leaderboards (long courses), and followed it up with another solid iron showing in Phoenix. He drive it all over the course in Scottsdale, mitigating his usual distance advantage, but that won’t be an issue at Vidanta.
Michael Kim — Only Finau is hitting it consistently closer on approaches to inside 20 feet in this field lately, and over the last year Kim’s shown a propensity to crush easy courses and longer courses. Which is strange because he’s certainly not a bomber. Plus, he was on my show a few weeks ago and gave some insight into how he’ll attack this course.
Alejandro Tosti — Beyond my affinity of simply rooting for hotheads, Tosti has come the elements we’re trying to target this week: He’s Top 10 in DD in this field and Top 25 in Birdies & Eagles gained. And, although Argentina is forever away from Mexico, South American players have shown themselves to be very comfortable on the slower Paspalum putting surfaces. The biggest issue is he’s losing strokes on approach. And it’s not some minor amount; it’s over a stroke per round on TOUR in 2024. In fact, the last time he gained strokes with his irons on the PGA TOUR was in this event last May when he gained 5.1. Hopefully that makes everything click and he can match it with the excellent driving and hope to get a spike putting week.
Jhonny Vegas — He bombs it. This we know. He’s also third in the field in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds. Can he actually use that shorter club and will it into the hole? This is yet to be seen. After a disaster of a first round at Torrey Pines, Vegas has actually been excellent in the short time since. He rebounded at Torrey with a -7 in round two, 13 strokes better than the day previous; then almost had all rounds in the 60s in Phoenix until a late slip Sunday dropping him to T22. And while we don’t have official data from the ALT events in the Caribbean with similar slow, paspalum greens, Vegas’ history of positive results should show he can manage the slower resort course putting complexes.
Garrick Higgo — It’s a bomber birdiefest on slow greens. Despite having shown nothing since last summer, Higgo still mashes it with his smoke wagon among the world’s elite and hopefully this course can remind him enough of the tracks in the Canary Islands where he went back-to-back in the spring of 2021.
Adrien Dumont de Chassart — It’s an all talent bet. ADDC has shown nothing on the PGA Tour thus far, outside of driving the ball immaculately in Phoenix. And that only helped him come T60. Maybe this is a case of Matthew Wolff syndrome, where a guy leaves college, instantly wins, then we just dump money on him waiting for the next breakthrough. But seeing him win in his first start post US Open on KFT last year, kicking off a string of six straight Top 10s is too much for me to ignore.
MAYO MOVIE CLUB
On Friday, in what I assume will be the lowest watched/listened to show in PME history, is the Mayo Movie Club for Southland Tales. Is it a “good” movie? Absolutely not. It’s batshit insane, doesn’t quite make sense, and attempts to be a satire on anything it can think of relating to 2007. Some of which it kinda nails now we’re in 2024. Either way, it’s a gigantic home run cut at a movie and it’s a miss; I just happen to find it greatly fascinating. I mean, any flick with The Rock, Stifler, Buffy, Mandy Moore, that guy from Night Court, and the casts of SNL and Mad TV from the mid-1990s has to at least be seen. At least I think so.
Moving forward, I think I’ll actually pick movies people want to watch. But for now, here’s where you can watch Southland Tales. It’ll cost a buck or two to rent since no streaming service will pick it up. I can’t blame them tbh.
HOW TO WATCH SOUTHLAND TALES
SIMS
Since this is a difficult event to cap because of the overwhelming amount of mid-tier players, the Fantasy National tournament simulator may be the tool you need to make the tough pivots for you.
Only members can see the full list, obv, but this is what the top looks like. Also, the sim has the hots for Davis Thompson every week it seems.
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— PM