Memorial Bets, Picks, DK Ownership
+ NFL, Threads & LIV GOLF
MEMORIAL BETS
I went over the Bets breakdown in full on the Wednesday show with Tambo, along with LIV TOUR, DK Ownership, and the Weather splits, but for the time being, I’ve retired from the first round leader market, and decided to reintroduce the SIX PACK of picks. That’s always subject to change, but only making six picks a week is when I had my most success, so I’m going back to the well. Gotta try something in what’s been a tough year for your’s truly.
Collin Morikawa — Morikawa at a Jack designed course? Yes please. Especially behind the overall favorites. Hopefully he remembers how to putt this week.
Mito Pereira — Mito rebounded very nicely after the collapse at the PGA Championship and has proven himself to be a legit threat every time the difficult of a course gets patched up a notch. Muirfield Village should play pretty tough, and Mito’s bogey avoidance in combination with elevated GIR rate is a perfect mix for this layout.
Will Zalatoris — Maybe he’s getting tired? It’s been a lot of golf for Will Z. However, a course where players have won despising losing strokes on the greens is a great spot for his breakthrough. I’ll keep fishing with will in events that project to finish in the low-to-mid teens in terms of final score.
LIV TOUR
Tambo and I touched on it again on the Wednesday PME, but just after the field news broke Tuesday event started a Twitter spaces chat about the LIV TOUR. I’m searching for a way to get the audio and upload it to the YouTube and Podcast feeds, but it’s still on Twitter if you want too listen. It’s Me, Matt Wiley, David Barnett, Geoff Ulrich (who is a lawyer, as he tells us), New dad Reid Fowler, Josh Perry, Kenny Kim, and a lot of viewers. Twas a tremendous time.
LISTEN: PME TWITTER SPACE LIV TOUR REACTION
If anyone knows an easy way to get this audio, please, help me out here. I’ve requested it from Twitter already, but that takes time.
NFL
98 Days until football starts again… GOTTA TOUGHEN UP!!!!! Or just tune into The PME. Jake Ciely and I broke down the 2022 projections and situations for all the rookie RBs, and Thursday am we’ll have the WR show released.
WATCH: ROOKIE RB RANKINGS AND PROJECTIONS
If you don’t give a shit what we have to say (not a bad idea), the Custom Projection builder is now LIVEEEEEE at RunTheSims. It’s a free tool, and you can save your adjustments and come back later. It just requires an email address, no payments or info needed beyond that.
TOOLS: RUN THE SIMS FREE NFL PROJECTION BUILDER
I’m considering doing some of those awful Twitter threads everyone hates for NFL stuff. They really do seem to work for engagement and exposure. And, if they actually have actionable info in them, the heat seems to be a lot less. Like Tambo’s for example. Here’s an example of what they’re going to look like
QB – underrated (Jalen Hurts – QB9)
1. QB7 last season … multiple TD passes in just 6 of 15 starts
2. Past 2 seasons: 12 rush TD inside the 10-yard line (same as Josh Allen)
a. In those seasons, 13.4% of his rush attempts have come from in close (Allen: 12.5%) … so if we think Allen’s rush TD rate is sustainable based on role, Hurts’ should be too
i. Allen ascended to fantasy god mode in 2020, his 3rd season … when his team traded draft picks for a stud WR1. Sound familiar?
3. 2019-20, Ryan Tannehill was QB10 on a per game basis (less than 2 PPG away from entering the top-5) with AJ Brown by his side
a. And that was without crazy single game upside … he scored north of 28 FP in 18% of games
i. Without a ace receiver, Hurts was at 20% last season
QB – overrated (Joe Burrow – QB6)
1. Let’s not forget that through 12 weeks last season, Burrow ranked …
a. 12th in pass yards per game
b. 13th at the position in PPG
c. 22nd in passes per game
2. He was not one of the 43 QBs with a 13-yard run last season
3. QB1 in each of the final 2 weeks of the season, a top-7 QB just once prior to that strong finish
4. CIN ranked 3rd slowest in pace
a. Rodgers and Burrow were the only top-10 QBs last season that played in an offense that ranked bottom-12 in pace … exception, not the rule
MEMORIAL CONTENT
DraftKings Ownership, Bets, Chat Replay w/ Tambo
DK Picks & Preview w/ Ulrich
Bets + Picks w/ Fienberg
Memorial Reserach Show
DraftKings Strategy Show
WEATHER
The forecast has changed a bit since we recored the show Wednesday afternoon. Originally it appeared like PM/AM had some decent upside with very little downside. Now, as it doesn’t appear to be raining mid-day Thursday (although that can always change in Dublin), so there’s little change the PM Thursday wave could get pushed into extra holes during the easier AM Friday tee time. It now just looks pretty even between the two days, with the earliest players on the course getting favorable conditions whereas the afternoon id going to get gusts just below 20mph. I’d recommend checking back as close to the event as possible and maybe adjusting if new information pops up.
WEATHER TOWER FOR THE MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
Recent Form All Stars
If you’re looking to ride the hot hand, the Fantasy National “Recent Results” tab can be quite helpful
TOOLS: 20% Off Fantasy National Tools & Stats
Here’s the squad you can compose
The Tidbits
Another week, and another thread from Tambo on the most interesting nuggets for Memorial he’s come across this week
GALAXY BRAIN: The “Elite” Eight
In the NBA, everybody jacks up 3’s in this era, but even with everyone doing it, there is still an edge to gain when doing it the “right” way. In the NBA, that generally means volume. In golf this week, I want a bomber given the length of this course, but one that has some complimenting skills. All stats mentioned are for the past 36 qualifying rounds on courses that feature average-to-easy fairways to hit and average-to-long rough length.
Here are the four players that are top-20 in both driving distance and GIRs gained. Basically, the guys that turn their distance into scoring chances with consistency in these spots:
The first three games are ones you’d expect, but how about Mr. Vegas crashing the party? He’s been a mess over the past few weeks, but players in this range rarely have three straight top-20’s at any point in their recent resume like Vegas does (Corales Puntacana, Valero and Wells Fargo). He’s struggled on the big stages and that may drag his rostership down … perfect time to buy!
Go back and listen to the Is Putting Predictable podcast … on a long course with penal areas, we can’t afford to bleed strokes in the key 5-10 foot range. Let’s pair that analysis with sand play given the construction of this course. There are four players that rank top-15 in both Sand Saves and P: 5-10 courtesy of Fantasynational:
There ya go … eight players for you to use how you’d like. If there’s a scrub you like, getting three high-end guys in there is possible. Below is a little bit more of a balanced approach, opting for two (not three) stars and thus not having to completely dumpster dive.
DRAFTKINGS OWNERSHIP
This feel like a week where projections may be off, unless there’s actually an even distribution between all of the top 20 guys. Eventually, some names are just more clickable and they’ll be under projected where the squeeze players will inevitably be well below what we though. I think it’s most noticeable in the Rory, Cantlay, Morikawa, Xander, Smith, Spieth, Zalatoris range. I believe Rory, Xander, and Spieth are going to be the most owned of this group, 20%ish. Something I could be completely wrong about btw. But if that’s the case, there’s no way the rest of the group can be ~17%, those guys are far more likely to be 10-14%, potentially half of the chalk in this group. It could be flat, but that seems unlikely with Fitz, Lowry, and Cam young in the. Low 9s/High 8s, being used a lot as 2nd and 3rd men in lineups.
WATCH: Memorial DK Ownership & Pivot Plays
Also, I expect Chris Kirk to beat all his projected ownership. Mito is right there, and that’s fine, but of the 7500-7900, eventually people are simply going to feel it’s safer taking Kirk over Kuch, Reed, Bryson, Scott, Horschel, Day, Si Woo and Leish. He could be this week’s Harman. Maybe not THAT owned, but much higher than expected.
Spieth
Lowry
Rory
Kirk
Young
Xander
Fitz
Mito
— PM