PME CONTENT
DraftKings Picks, Final Bets, Weather
Fantasy Picks, Bracket Picks, Bets, ONE & DONE
Match Play Research, Preview, Picks
Rodgers/Jets, NFL FA + Cust Corner
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Match Play Bets
When you go to the top of the card, it’s tough to squeeze in much else.
Jon Rahm — Hopefully he’s over the illness from THE PLAYERS (or just doesn’t wear white pants) because it’s time to jump back aboard. Rahm’s advanced from his group two times in the past three years in Austin and if he can do it again, he has one of the easier paths to the final four.
Max Homa — I saw a boost up to 25 at 365 Monday and decided to roll with it. Homa hasn’t made a putt over his last two events (maybe an exaggeration) yet still has two Top 10s in elevated events. The good news? His irons have gone full Frampton — THEY’VE COME ALIVE!!!!!! If we can get half way back to his west coast putting he’ll be in great shape in an event like this.
Tyrrell Hatton — DraftKings Sportsbook was hanging that 40 pre group draw, so I, like many of us, hit it knowing that number would fall into the 20s regardless of the draw.
Denny McCarthy — If Kuchar and Kisner have taught us anything over the years, it’s beware of the hot putting Pete Dye specialist. Denny’s actually seen great improvements in his ball striking over there last 12 months, and getting a course which shouldn’t punish his lack of distance off the tee is a big benefit. When you’re looking for a long shot in match play, make sure they have an elite skill set. And despite his lack of wins on the PGA TOUR, Denny’s putter is an elite skill.
Maverick McNealy — Despite not advanced from his group a year ago, Mav is still unbeaten in group play in his career (2-0-1). The ball striking has been abysmal this season, likely due to his lingering shoulder injury, but the chipping and putting is in the Top 2% of this field. He tends to play better on courses with smaller than average greens, like Austin CC, and again, a hot putter can be good enough for a long shot to make some upset waves. And while he’s in a tough group, the talent discrepancy from top to bottom is a lot closers than most groups.
Match Play Event & Course Notes
Course: Austin CC
Yardage: 7,108
Par: 71
Greens: Bermuda overseeded with Poa
Fairway width: 25 yards (narrow)
Par 3’s (4): Average length of 182.5 yards
Hole 17 is only 150 yards and the second easiest hole on the course … but the other three are among the seven toughest holes on the course
Hole 7 has the 3rd highest bogey rate on this track (18.3%) and has an 11.2% birdie rate (the other Par 3’s have a birdie rate of at least 16.9% … if you can pick up strokes on 201-yard #7, you’re well on your way.
Par 4’s (11): Average length of 413.2 yards
181 yards separate the longest from the shortest Par 4 on this course, so not all of them are going to require the same skill set
That said, six of them (the majority) are under 400 yards
Par 5’s (3): Average length of 577.7 yards
The three easiest holes on the course, all with a birdie percentage north of 42%
2019 – Full course bunker renovation, re-grassing of tees.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 110
Number of Water Hazards: 5
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 7
Match play: The 64-player field is broken down into 16 groups of four. Round-robin group play takes place Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, with players receiving one point for a win and half a point for a tie. The player with the most points in each group advances to the Round of 16 (ties broken by sudden-death playoff), and a single-elimination tournament Saturday and Sunday determines the champion.
Winners
2022: Scottie Scheffler over Kevin Kisner 4 & 3
2021: Billy Horschel over Scottie Scheffler 2 & 1
2019: Kevin Kisner over Matt Kuchar 3 & 2
2018: Bubba Watson over Kevin Kisner 7 & 6
2017: Dustin Johnson over Jon Rahm 1up
2016: Jason Day over Louis Oosthuizen 5 & 4
WGC Match Play Records (Last 3 Events Only)
GROUP 1
Scheffler 10-2-2 (1st/2nd)
Tom KIM 0-0
Noren 4-2
Riley 0-0
GROUP 16
Im 1-2
Fleetwood 5-4-2 (1 Group Win)
Poston 1-1-1
McNealy 2-0-1
GROUP 9
Morikawa 3-3-1 (1 Group Win)
Day 1-5
Svensson 0-0
Perez 4-3 (4th)
GROUP 8
Hovland 3-3
Kirk 0-0
SI WOO KIM 2-7
Kuchar 11-2-1 (2nd/3rd)
GROUP 5
Homa 3-3
Matsuyama 2-3-1
Kisner 14-3 (Win/2nd)
Suh 0-0
GROUP 12
Spieth 4-4-2 (1 Group Win)
Lowry 3-6
Montgomery 0-0
Hughes 4-2-1 (1 Group Win)
GROUP 13
Burns 0-0
Power 3-2 (1 Group Win)
Scott 2-1-1 (1 Group Win)
Hadwin 0-0
GROUP 4
Cantlay 3-2-1
Harman 3-4-1 (1 Group Win)
KH Lee 0-0
N. Taylor 0-0
GROUP 2
Rahm 6-4-2 (2 Group Wins)
Horschel 9-3-2 (1st/2 Group wins)
Mitchell 2-3-1
Fowler 0-0
GROUP 15
Young 1-2
Straka 1-2
Conners 6-4 (3rd)
Thompson 0-0
GROUP 10
Finau 3-5-1
Kitayama 0-0
Meronk 0-0
Bez 0-5-1
GROUP 7
Zalatoris 4-3-1 (1 Group Win)
Fox 0-0
English 1-2
Putnam 1-2
GROUP 6
Schauffele 3-3-3
Hoge 0-2-1
Wise 1-2
Davis 0-0
GROUP 11
Fitz 4-5
Theegala 0-0
MIN WOO LEE 1-1-1
Spaun 0-0
GROUP 14
Hatton 4-4-2 (1 Group Win)
Henley 1-4-1
Herbert 2-1
Griffin 0-0
GROUP 3
McIlroy 4-2-1 (1 Group Win)
Bradley 0-2-4
McCarthy 0-0
Stallings 0-0
WGC MATCH PLAY BRACKET PICKS
MATCH PLAY DRAFTKINGS NOTES
Shout out to Sky for putting this together the last two years! Sky has been quite interested in how much of the field is properly spreading out their picks to optimize each quadrant and thus have a higher upside line up. I’m going to use the Fantasy National lineup generator to do this because it makes so simple.
Although we talk about this being the right strategy (because it is), no one had all the final four intact in a line up in 2021, while just 15 of 45K+ got it done a year ago. Still, the winner of the largest DK contest each of the past two years built in the optimal quadrant format.
2022 Data
2021 Data
— PM