It’s been a tough go in the betting game for yours truly as of late. All the good will my account received because of Luke List is officially back with the book at this point.
I’m usually pretty happy having someone with a shot come Sunday and hoping the chips fall my way. They have not been. Then there was Valspar, which was just a train wreck overall.
I choose to view that positively however. Like a cleanse to the system. So let’s get one this week. Then another. And complete the turkey at Augusta. Sound good? Great.
OHHHHH, before you go any further, remember to play in the PME DraftKings Open. There’s still around 1000 spots left somehow as a write this. Maybe people don’t realize this event LOCKS at 1020am ET on WEDNESDAY!!!!!.
PLAY: PME DK LISTENER’S LEAGUE
I went over most of these picks on the show with Geoff this week. I decided to add Na and Hughes since I had them winning their groups, and it’s never the worst idea backing putters who give Smokey The Bear nightmares in an event like this. That equalizer can have them knocking anyone out if they’re striking it reasonably well. And frankly, I wasn’t super into the +350 and +400 group winner odds. I’d rather just back them with the each ways and really cash in if they can keep advancing.
Oh, targetting the Bryson group may be a decent idea with this news.
I went with Bland +200 in a H2H vs Bryson on Wednesday. And for kicks played this 4 match parlay along with the single.
LET’S ROCK!!!!!!!!!
FOOTBALL IS BACK!!!!!!!!
It was announced Tuesday DraftKings is offering DFS contests for the USFL. I realize that likely isn’t exciting, but you need to understand, these jabroni leagues are where you can make some serious money. We’ve been anticipate this coming at Run The Sims, and since Justin used the XFL as a printing press, he has projections for DFS and player props good to go.
Obviously, Week 1 is a lot of educated guess work, but once there are actual games, the optimizer and projections get more and more precise every week. There’s an early bird price available NOW. Get it before you see GPP winning screenshots and then pay $100 for it.
RUN THE SIMS EARLY BIRD $69 SPECIAL
MATCH PLAY DRAFTKINGS
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Par 4s Gained 350-400 Yards
Proximity Gained 100-150 Yards
Course
Course: Austin CC
Yardage: 7,108
Par: 71
Greens: TifEagle bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis
Past Winners
2021 Billy Horschel
2019 Kevin Kisner
2018 Bubba Watson
2017 Dustin Johnson
2016 Jason Day
On the DraftKings front, I think there’s been enough discourse on the optimal strategy for lineup building on DraftKings this week. If you missed it, Sky and I talked it through on the DK show at length, but this clip has the gist of it…
As a reminder: “Optimal” doesn’t guarantee you win a cent. It’s just the best way to build your lineup for maximum upside.
On the flip side of maximum upside… The strategy of overloading one specific two-group path (in an attempt to ensure you have at least one player in the final eight) I proposed to Sky is still lingering with me. Sky, because he’s smart whereas I am not, went and ran the numbers from the past two years to see if this was a viable strategy. Basically I would have been a winner in small field tourneys, H2Hs, and cash games when all the chalk busted in 2021, but would have been pretty middle of the pack. May have beat 50% of entries if your last player standing when to the final four, but maybe not.
Honstly, this is one of the best weeks all year to have a Fantasy National membership. The FN lineup genertor comes preloaded with the region rules to help you build with one in each quardent without thinking about it.
TOOLS: 20% Off Fantasy National Tools & Stats
Just get the monthly, so you can put together your lineups this week super quick and still have all the stats and tool for the Masters, all for 20% off.
BRACKET CHALENGE
Here’s mine.
And if you wanna compete against me and the PME viewers in a FREE tournament, our pals at Fan Team put together a bracket you simply play through the PGATour site
Bracket Challenge: https://fanteam.blog/2022/03/20/wgc-matchplay-bracket-challenge-league/
Play in a $15 DFS Contest at FanTeam for Corales + Use Code “MMN” at deposit to get a FREE DFS ticket into their MASTERS 20K GPP:
IN USA: https://bit.ly/FanTeamMMNUSA
REST OF WORLD: https://bit.ly/FanTeamMMN
And Shout out to Tambo for aggregating all the week’s pertinent info in one spot.
Ownership Projecions
This week is a legit blind guess. (As I sit here pretending every other weke isn’t!)
Xander
Dustin
Henley
Cantlay
Berger
Gooch
Noren
2022 OSCARS
If you didn’t know, the Oscars are this week. And yes, not only do I have picks, I have an entire show dedicated to Bets and the year in movies with Scott Yager. If you like movies, you’ll like this show. If you don’t, I dunno, maybe you’ll find a good + money bet or two. Either way, help me out and download it when it drops on the audio feed Wed morning.
WATCH: 2022 OSCARS Picks + Bets
RAPID FIRE UPDATES
Thursday is the begining of MLB previews on The PME since appearently that is starting soon. Chris Meaney and BIG JOHN Laghezza will be going over the AL this week. If you’re looking to catch up on what the fuck’s been going on in baseball, John has actually been covering it in short form vids all winter.
Normally, Garion would be on all MLB content but got engaged this weekend in Hawaii. Drop him a line and tell him congrats. It’ll freak him out because he didn’t post it and will have no idea how people know.
Cody took off to Cuba Tuesday but he and Paul made their UFC Columbus picks before he left. What a grinder. Knowing Cody, he won’t be on the internet to release the PRP (maybe he will?) but Paul will be around to drop his fav plays and props. It was a bloodbath last week, but blindly tailing Paul and Cody has me up money for the year betting on sports, so you know the win rate is very good.
If you miss the 1020am ET lock for Match Play Wednesday, you can still play Corales or even get in on the Qatar Masters. Both start much later. Qatar LOCK at 1115pm ET Wenedesday night. Corales at 6am ET Thursday. Sky and Tom have the Qatar picks you’re looking for, on demand too!
NCAA Sweet 16/Elite 8
If you read through the brakcet and bets from last week, you’re likely very happy where you stand right now with the Tournament. Hopefully my secret source can keep it up another week. Now he takes over…
We are down to the Sweet 16 and if you’re like Mr. College Basketball Expert Pat Mayo, you’ve still very much got a shot in your pool. Even if that’s not the case, we here are MMN generated power ranks for the tourney ahead of time and those same ranks can be formatted to create aggressive spreads based on specific skill sets. The first number below is the MMNN (Mayo Media Network Number) followed by the current spread at DK. All eight of our favorites this week grade as plays ATS (the team in green), so if you want to sweat some college brackets at night while you’re sweating golf brackets during the day, this is the way to go!
Both teams are capable of defending at an elite level, but only one has an elite ceiling on the other end of the court. The ‘Zags have yet to put together 40 consecutive good minutes of basketball and that’s less than ideal, but this profiles as a spot where Arkansas will inevitably go into a scoring drought at some point, thus bringing this number into play. Don’t love laying this many points, but there’s no denying Gonzaga’s talent edge and this game could get ugly if they jump out to an early lead.
Villanova plays at such a pace that a 5-point spread feels like 10-12 points at times and that’s all I need to back the Wolverines in this spot. With Hunter Dickinson manning the middle, Michigan should control the glass and thus limit Villanova’s second shot opportunities in what will be a low volume offensive game as it is. Our numbers actually like Michigan close, so getting the 5 points is a nice bonus and allows you some breathing room against the best free throw shooting team in the country.
Duke tried like hell to blow it last weekend against Michigan State, but their raw talent just wouldn’t let them do it. While talent alone won’t be enough to advance past the best defense in the field, smart talent should be and that’s what the Blue Devils have. They grade out as a top 5% passing team, a skill set that should allow them to have more success against the stingy Red Raiders than most. They also line up to have a distinct edge on the free throw line, so we like everything they offer should this game come down to the wire as the spread suggests.
The emotional Sunday night win for Arizona was a lot to handle, but they got through and they’ve had a week to prep for what is essentially a poor mans version of themselves. These are the types of matchups we like to target: Arizona excels in all the same spots Houston does, so unless Houston gets an outlier performance or two, they are swimming upstream. Still a TON of basketball to be played, but TCU failing to close out Arizona feels like a potential “you should have killed them when you had the shot” spot.
No, we don’t actually think Purdue wins this game by 38, but that number does highlight the difference in overall profile. Now, we’ve been wrong on the Andercust’s Peacocks before, but their resume outside of the past week simply isn’t impressive. The upset over Kentucky was great and then on short rest, they won again, but now they are facing a program with legit NBA talent that has had the better part of a week to take advantage of their edge in resources and talent. That’s a problem. Saint Peter’s is no longer a cute story: they are one of 16 left playing and if Purdue treats them as such, they should be able to exploit them in a number of ways and end the Cinderella run (and keep my bracket alive!).
Next to Arizona, it’s possible that Kansas is the most well-rounded team in the country and I expect them to prove that against a Providence team that has overachieved of late. The Friars rank as a bottom 25% team in this field in terms of shot quality and while KU isn’t a lockdown defense, their athletes and interior presence offers enough resistance to think that Providence is going to struggle to keep up. Providence will cover (maybe win outright) if they can dictate tempo, but if they fall behind early like we think, there’s a chance this game isn’t competitive for the final 10 minutes.
This could well be the best game of the round. We could deep dive this one and get into the nitty gritty, but let’s keep it simple … what do you trust more: mid-range jumpers or rebounding excellence. History favors the ladder and that’s what you get with the Tar Heels. For a team that bangs in the paint, North Carolina is also reliable on the free throw line, so you can be comfortable in them being able to close. This should be a good one, so taking the points is fine, but you also have the green light to go moneyline if you want a little bit of plus-money.
The last game of the round features a pair of teams not many people had here (1.3% of ESPN brackets had this matchup occurring), but that’s how this stuff goes. The Hurricanes take care of the ball and have a pair of potential game-breakers, two things that have us leaning toward them covering. Be warned: they aren’t perfect team and the defense is spotty at times, but their offensive aggression profiles as a major advantage in this spot and their lack of rebounding shouldn’t be a serious issue against a similarly deficient Iowa State squad.
Good Luck this week
— PM