Masters Preview, Weather, Longshots, LIV Stats & Player News
THIS IS THE LINK TO THE 2024 MASTERS CONTENT HUB. ALL MASTERS CONTENT WILL BE ADDED HERE THE MOMENT ITS RELEASED. BOOKMARK IT.
Geoff and I will be going LIVE from Las Vegas 8pm ET Wednesday night to discuss out final plays, latest news, weather and whatever Qs you can throw at us. Until then, there was a 2for today. Set a reminder for that show here.
SET REMINDER: MASTERS FINAL PICKS LIVE FROM LAS VEGAS
Tambo and I talked through the entire DraftKings Slate.
WATCH: Masters DraftKings Picks & DFS Preview
Then, JUST RELEASED, Me, Bryson, and Cam gave out our best bets. You must watch this video as Cam is in NYC on a bender and is absolutely hammered. It’s great.
WATCH: Masters Best Bets: Placements, Exotics, H2Hs
LATEST MASTERS NEWS
Min Woo Lee broke his finger a week ago lifting. Respect the gainz. It’s likely due to the extra T he gained from those lifts that have him saying he’s playing pain free at the moment. Min Woo has also had the flu recently which kept him from practicing.
Scheffler and Burns’ wives are both due to give birth any time in the next 7-21 days. Both said they would leave the event if that happened. I wouldn’t expect that to happen.
Fred Couples said Tiger looks great. As did Zalatoris on Monday. I don’t think I’ve ever heard another pro golf ever say, at any point, that Tiger has not “looked great”.
Viktor Hovland has reunited with former swing coach Dana Dahlquist; no longer working with Grant Waite. If Hovland ever wants to lose to Tiger at the Canadian Open by being victim of one of the best shots ever, Grant Waite is the man to talk to, though.
Jordan Spieth said he dealt with a wrist injury in 2023. This does not explain his 2024 struggles.
They released the past champions dinner photo. These are gold every year. Mainly because of Phil.
$1,000 Cash Giveaway ($250 x 4)
How to get in The Masters Cash Giveaway. It’s quick and easy to get ballots in the draw. Winners announced on the Wednesday Night LIVE Show.
30 Ballots: Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100:
https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-pat-mayo (This unlocks a Jordan Spieth Extra Free Square on UD for Thursday at The Masters Too)
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5 Ballots
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Course
Course: Augusta National
Yardage: 7,510
Par: 72
Greens: Bentgrass
Par 3's (4): Average distance -- 187 yards
-240-yard #4 is the 3rd toughest hole on the course (nearly 5x more likely to shoot over par than under par on this hole)
-We have 3 Par 3's basically in the 150-175 bucket at Fantasy National (technically 155-180, close enough). 3 players in this field are top 20 over their past 24 rounds in P3 150-175 AND P3 225+ ... Xander, Theegala and Grillo
Par 4's (10): Average distance -- 456 yards
-The two highest bogey rate holes are Par 4's on the Back 9 (Holes 11 and 18)
- The 350-yard #3 drags down the average distance. Sub $7,000 players to rank top 20 in this field in P4 450-500 over their past 24 rounds: Schwartzel, Pavon, Taylor Moore and Grillo
Par 5's (4): Average distance -- 560 yards
- All 4 have a birdie rate over 30% (no other hole reaches even 19%) and an eagle rate of at least 1%
-The 13-14-15 stretch is a scoring spot (two Par 5's and the 3rd easiest Par 4)
--> 7 straight Masters Champions have had multiple rounds in which they played holes 13-15 at -2 or better (Tiger did it in all four rounds in 2019 while Patrick Reed was -3 or better in three of four rounds). The last champ not to do this was Danny Willett and that worked out just fine for those consuming Pat Mayo led content!
Past Winners
2023: Jon Rahm -12
2022: Scottie Scheffler -9
2021: Hideki Matsuyama -10
2020: Dustin Johnson -20
2019: Tiger Woods -13
2018: Patrick Reed -15
2017: Sergio Garcia -9
2016: Danny Willett -5
2015: Jordan Spieth -18
2014: Bubba Watson -8
Average age of Masters Champion: 32 years old
Tyrell Hatton (turned 32 in October)
Hideki Matsuyama (turned 32 in February)
Patrick Cantlay (turned 32 in March) are all 32 years old
2023: Jon Rahm -12 (4 clear of Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson)
-Held a share of the lead after Thursday thanks to a 65 (he double bogied #1, but that was his only blemish on top of 7 birdies and an eagle at #8)
- Entered the tournament with three wins in the calendar year (Genesis, AmEx, and Sentry) and with strong putting form (+3.6 strokes gained putting in each of his three-lead in events)
-Average finish in three most recent trips to Augusta prior to win: 13th
2022: Scottie Scheffler -10 (3 clear of Rory McIlroy)
-His best round (67) came on Friday and he was 10 strokes better than McIlroy entering the weekend
-Entered the tournament with two wins in the calendar year (API and Phoenix) and with strong putting form (+1.7 strokes gained putting in each of his four-lead in events)
-Average finish in two trips to Augusta prior to win: 19th
2021: Hideki Matsuyama -10 (1 clear of Will Zalatoris)
-His 65 on moving day (bogey-free, played Holes 11-17 at -6) was the best on the course by 3 strokes and gave him enough breathing room to win with a 73 on Sunday.
- Entered with no real form (the 30th at Valero wasn't bad, but he has twice as many MC as top 15 finishes leading in
-Average finish in three most recent trips to Augusta prior to win: 22nd
FREE SQUARE ON UNDERDOG
Also, if you’ve used code “MAYO” at Underdog already, you get a special bonus next week. If you haven’t used code “MAYO” (or the link below) to sign up, then there’s still time to do it and get said special bonus. Beyond the $100 deposit match you’ll get, Underdog is offering a a FREE SQUARE for Scottie Scheffler Thursday at The Masters: 0.5 strokes over under. I get Scottie’s good. He’s not that good to hit the under. Everyone will get that one. But, people who signed up with code “MAYO” will receive a second free square of Jordan Spieth 0.5 strokes on Thursday as well. A little more incentive to come over to Underdog and test the waters.
Plus, there’s also the Major Drafts with $50K up top. Which laos happen to be an incredible amount of fun.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
This is a great time to test out the NEW Pick’em Tool at Fantasy National. Since you have a FREE SQUARE (two with code MAYO), you want to make the odds as crazy as possible. It’s like having a free bet at a sportsbook. Maximize that opportunity. And Tiger way be the way to go. The FN Sim love him vs his numbers and as a PM guy Thursday he may get the better R1 conditions.
TAIL ME ON UNDERDOG RD1 with SPIETH FREE SQUARE
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Course History
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Strokes Gained: Short Game
Driving Distance
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Masters Notes
There’s no need for an in-depth breakdown of Augusta National. If you’d made the leap to search out an article on The Masters, the chances of you knowing the course, even the weird nooks and crannies, is above 99%.
In case you’re living the movie Blast From the Past, but in real life, Augusta National is a Par 72, which plays longer than its 7,510 yards due to the incredible amount of elevation shifts across the course. As there is essentially no penal rough on the grounds, it gives a lean to those who have extra distance on the field. It’s not essential to have the ability to contend in a long-drive contest since history has proven otherwise, but it certainly makes the path to eagles and birdies on the Par 5s less resistant.
There have been changes to three of the holes over the past few years. The difficult No. 11 scraped most of the trees from the right-hand side of the hole and as we saw a year ago, they’ll still prove to be a nuisance. The Par 5 15th was been lengthened by 20 yards which led to fewer players going for the green in two. This year, the easiest hole on the course has been lengthened by 35 yards. No. 13, the bead on the rosary of Amen Corner, will now have a far more difficult second shot. Most of the field, with a good drive (hell, even with a bad one), was able to attack the green in two, generating eagle opportunities. While we don’t know the in-competition impact yet, Bubba Watson mentioned he needed a 3 or 4-iron for his second shot. 13 should remain the easiest hole on the grounds, but seeing some of the eagles evaporate sounds like a good wager. There’s a new pin position on hole 2 and a change to the green on 6.
Again, while distance is a massive advantage, it’s not everything. Gaining strokes with the driver is, however. Even someone like Patrick Reed, not especially known for his driving prowess, was well above his usual baseline at Augusta in 2018. Reed gained +3.35 strokes off the tee. He’d only gained more than that in two starts in the previous two years before the victory (2017 Travelers; 2017 Memorial). Tiger didn’t gain a ton the year he won (+1.51 SG: OTT), but that was enough leverage on the field to make his +9.02 Strokes Gained: Approach number truly matter. If you decide to back one of the non-elite drivers, their irons and short game better be electric all four days.
So far in 2024, the leaders in SG: OTT per round (from measured events) in the field are Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schaufffele, Chris Kirk, and Wyndham Clark.
Difficulty at Augusta tends to vary every year based on the conditions. The impact of damp conditions has lessened over the years because of the filtration system. A lot of courses have a SubAir system under the greens to suck out the water and allow the grounds crew to make the putting surfaces as fast or slow as they want. Augusta has those on each green… and under every fairway, so even if it does rain, don’t expect a long period of time with receptive course conditions.
There are 41 bunkers and six water hazards and a whole lotta pine straw scattered across the grounds. Unless there’s an untimely tree in the way, however, the pine straw isn’t the end of the world. The bentgrass greens are around Tour average in size; the major difference is the wild undulations. These are some of the most hilly and fastest putting surfaces the players will encounter all year. Here are the Strokes Gained: Putting per round on Fast + Lighting Fast greens since the begining of 2023.
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It’s worth mentioning, the LIV players, old guys, and international tour players don’t really factor into these stats since there is limited or no shot link data from their tournaments. Well, that may be untrue. This random person on X (formally known as Twitter) has complied a spread sheet for LIV SG. No idea if it’s accurate or not. But it says Hatton has been the best long iron player while Rahm, Niemann, and DJ have been the best off the tee
Course history plays a more significant factor at Augusta than any other course. That’s not anecdotal either. Course history on a week-to-week basis holds very little predictive value at most events, despite the prevailing narrative, but The Masters is an outlier in that regard.
Also, look at some courses where there has been crossover success on leaderboards over the year, Quail Hollow appears to have some correlation, as does TPC Deere Run and Kapalua because of the angled fairways, but Riviera CC, with its similar shot shapes from the tee box, unique green complexes and elevation changes, sports a very similar course history crossover to Augusta.
Trends are more for fun talking points, but it’s worth noting nine straight Masters champions HAD at least two Top 15 finishes in their three stroke play tournaments leading into the event before Hideki blew that up in 2021. Still, 11 of the last 12 ain’t bad, and based on that criteria, the winner will be either: Scheffler, Clark, Xander, Ludvig, Hideki, Lowry, Theegala, Bhatia, Fitz, Harman, or Taylor Moore from the PGA . Rahm, Niemann, Cam Smith, Bryson, Hatton, Reed, or Meronk from LIV.
Angel Cabrera (2009) was the last player to place outside the Top 35 in his final pre-Master’s tune-up (MC at the Shell Houston Open. He actually MC’d the two tournaments prior).
WEATHER
Like I talked about with Bryson on the best bets show, despite the initial panic on the Thursday thunderstorms, it may be best to wait this out as the weather continues to improve while the players are supposed to be on the course. Now, I’ll still be stacking both sides the wave. There’s a potential rain delay coming along with massive wind gusts the firs two days. You’d be crazy not to try and find a pocket with the best conditions and hope you land on the right players in that pocket.
WIND TOWER: Daniel Field Airport
Here are the tee times if you wanna stack them up
Masters Bets
Hideki Matsuyama 25/1
Shane Lowry 50/1
Sahith Theegala 60/1
I haven’t quite decided on all the ways I want to use these guys from the bottom of the odds and DFS Pricing, but I bet them all to win at Bet365 to take advantage of their Top 8 each ways. To use an example, Taylor Moore’s Top 8 as a part of the each way pays 60/1. To merely bet him Top 10 is 16/1. I get to invest less money for a much larger payout along with the lotto ticket of the win. Makes no sense to do the other way.
Chris Kirk 150/1 (8 Places)
His latest form would suggest a quick exit, but long term, he’s been a consistently excellent iron player and his win at Kapalua shouldn’t be over looked. Rahm, Reed, Spieth, Dustin, and Zach Johnson have all won there in the past 10 years. And they all have green jackets. I’ve come up with worse reasons to lose money on someone at the back of the field. Kirk returned to Augusta 12 months ago after seven years and finished T23. That puts him at 3 of four cuts made with a pair of Top 25s.
Thorbjorn Olesen 200/1 (8 Places)
One of the few players in the field who ha actually won a tournament in 2024 (Ras Al Khaimah Championship in January). Since coming to America he was having a tougher go than Prince Akeem, until last week. A T14 may not be all that great, it was encouraging to see the Dane spike his best approach and around the green week of the PGA season so far. It’s been a while since he’s played at Augusta, yet he remains 3/3 in cuts made with Top 20 finishes in two of those starts.
Taylor Moore 300/1 (8 Places)
Top 20 in the field in approach over the past 24 rounds in addition to a Top 10 ranking around the greens. Moore cut his teeth in his first Augusta appearance a year ago finishing a respectable T39 as a debutant. He hasn’t missed a cut since last year’s Open Championship and rides in with consecutive Top 12 finishes. Moore’s got plus distance and horrendous accuracy which should actually benefit him here with the extendo fairways and lack of tough as long as he misses on the proper part of the hole. The big thing with him, though; the touch around the greens. Moore’s ability to control his ball speed green side has turned him into an excellent scrambler while his lag putting has been some of the best on tour in 2024. The short putts, they still remain problematic.
— PM