*Updated Monday Morning after Saturday posting*
THE MASTERS
Get 20% off Fantasy National tools and stats Masters Week HERE. If you have failed to join the NEW One and Done league, DON’T… be a jabroni. Be a hero. It’s $100 per entry, runs from The Masters to the British Open. There’s only 700ish spots remaining at the moment and they’re going to go quick. Get one.
GIVEAWAYS
There are so many giveaways this week some have begun to call me Single “A” Oprah. You get into a draw for $100 just by subscribing to the newsletter. So, that click of the SUB button is an almost exponential ROI on your time if you win.
May as well share this too while you’re click happy…
I tried!
I’m giving away 10 entries into the $10 Milly Maker on DraftKings and 1 entry into the $100 Milly Maker if you leave a 5-star rating and review on Apple Podcasts for the PME. Do that here — http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes. Leave a Twitter Handle or email address so I can contact you if you win. If you’ve left a review before, I suggest updating it so you go back to the top of the list. Winners announced Tuesday. Is this tactic sleazy? Most definitely and……. don’t care. The combination of Masters + New Reviews + Lack of fresh football shows = my chance to pass CBS and ESPN on the podcast charts, so I’m giving myself the best chance to do it. Need your help, though. Not a bad week to tell a few people about the show too. If you can get two people to listen your watch can end.
The MEGA Masters DraftKings Picks show drops IS OUT!!!! As is my GIANT Masters Column. That article is LOADED with stuff you probably already know. If you have some toilet time, I suggest checking it out.
The First Look and research show is out too, but if you just want the picks debate; me, Ben Rasa, and David Barnett talk through the entire DraftKings Pricing. If nothing else, it’s probably worth clicking just to find the PME Open DK Link. There’s $75,000 of guaranteed, RAKE FREE money in the kitty this week.
There’s official Masters SWAG to be had win the newsletter sub draw. I’ll be showcasing ALL the potential items you can claim if you win on Monday’s show with Fienberg, but here’s one a tease item that could be YOURS…
I put in a request for FREE Milly Maker tickets into the $10 from DraftKings directly. I’m hoping they’ll remember to email me back and let me do a giveaway Wednesday morning on Twitter. Fingers crossed if you like free stuff.
FYI: I’ll be LIVE on MMN YouTube this week for Wednesday’s LIVE CHAT at 12pm ET. Then Fienberg and I will be LIVE sweating the cut Friday afternoon. Likely making losing bets too!
MASTERS INJURY NOTES AND NEWS
Jon Rahm — On baby watch. May leave at any time if his wife goes into labor. NOPE!!! No need to worry about Rahm now. He and his wife welcomed their boy into the world Sunday morning.
Brooks Koepka — Hasn’t played since WGC Workday, came second that week btw. Had knee surgery very recently but looks like he may give it a go. Tough to trust him on DraftKings but his odds keep drifting. At least in the betting market there’s no difference between runner up and WD. My source at the course told me he saw Brooks play a practice round Sunday without a limp. GOOD ENOUGH FOR ME
Justin Rose — Appears on track to play. He hasn’t teed off since his back locked up round three at the Honda. We’ll need more info, but he’s made 14 of 15 cuts at Augusta in his career.
Daniel Berger — Rib injury forced him out of Honda but returned at Match Play. He’s fine.
Matthew Wolff — Took off early from WGC Workday with an “injury”. Just seemed like he needed a break tbh. Looked part of the way back at Match Play going 1-1-1.
Kevin Na/Louis Oosthuizen/Jason Day — Just pray their backs are fine so they don’t WD after lock.
COURSE HISTORY
The players who have gained the most strokes at the last five Masters. Table and info c/o Fantasy National.
TWITTER FOLLOWS
There are so many amazing writers, podcasters, prognosticators, and researchers in the space, I’m bound to forget someone. Side note, it’s funny how many people (myself included) abstain for doing these sorts of lists because the only responses you ever get receive are “But WhAt ABOUt?????” or “hoW diD yOU FOrGEt?????” and it really feels horrible when you realize you did in fact forget someone. The intention is to do something nice and all people do is get TRIGGED and it makes ya not want to do it ever again. But screw it. Here are some names to follow for quality info.
I actually just have a Twitter list of golf follows that make things super easy to track. If there are names I don’t have on there, hit me up and I’ll see if I should add them. Let me know if there are names I should remove too. I haven’t culled it, ever.
QUICK INDUSTRY TIP: If you suggest yourself to be added, not just for this but for any sort thing resembling this, it’s the quickest way to get the mute button pressed on you and laughed off. I know that’s not just me either. I get being your own cheerleader, but at least use a burner or get a friend to mention you. The self recommendation seems very desperate. And desperation is a stinky cologne
Special shout out to all the guests who are coming on the show this week, though. Follow them for sure:
Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Ben Rasa, and David Barnett. We might call up Tim ANDERCUST, but it depends on my mood Monday morning. If I’ve yet to have consumed at least two Americanos, I may be too angry to call him up.
I did want to give a shout out to Dave Tindall and his Masters trends article. It was a fun read. Oh, Rick published a stats look at the 2020 November Masters and whether the results from that event can be applied to this year’s Masters. It’s worth looking up the tweet to see the very angry responses from people who clearly didn’t read it.
EARLY BETTING LEANS
First off, GOOOOO CAM TRINGALE!!!!!! (Well, that didn’t work)
For The Masters, unless you see an amazing number hanging out there, the betting market will almost always be better the Monday of a Major than the weekend before. I’m holding off until now, but both Patrick Reed, Webb Simpson and Daniel Berger seem undervalued in the betting market at the moment. If you shop around there is definitely a +4000 on Berger floating around. I may take that since it likely won’t get any better. I’ll just wait and do more research on the other two. No need to rush into this.
UPDATE: SO far I’ve bet Brooks +3200, Webb +4500, Homa +100 with a Top 8 Each Way
Deep down the board I’ve started to figure out Top 10/Top 20/Debutant stuff a bit.
Again, no need to commit this early but Will Zalatoris, Max Homa and Robert MacIntyre stick out to me for skill set at Augusta National. No stats stick out for Bobby Mac, but the Scottish Tim Andercust is a lefty who can pound it off the tee, that’s been a pretty good recipe over the years.
Kevin Na (because seeing DJ put the jacket on him will make my year), Ryan Palmer, and Si WOOOOOOOO Kim stick out in the $6K range on DraftKings. Stewmanji Cink if you really need the savings (which you shouldn’t) seems too cheap at $6,100. Yes, he’s an old man. But he’s an old man who has won on Tour this year. DK priced him like he’s as cooked at Vijay.
Finally, Max Homa just makes a lot of sense. Missed dates cut in he debut in November, but he has the right kind of game for Augusta. He’s won at two of the closes crossover courses — The RIV and Quail Hollow — and his game has been fairly consistent since MCing at The Masters last year.
Plus, all the rumors are indicating the course is playing incredibly fast and firm, so I sorted past four years on Fantasy National, for all course with “firm” conditions and “fast” and “lightening” greens over the past 24 rounds for SG: Putting on those course conditions and this is what it spit out…
Maybe it’s just all noise. Probably is. But I like looking at this stuff, OK? Here are the worst putters under those conditions since I know you want to know…
Corey Conners, giant shocker there.
I walked through the custom model on the Masters Research, Course Preview and Stats show and I also built a Mixed Condition Model on the fly for kicks. Here were the perimeters I gave it…
Based on these setting here’s who came out best…
Now, it’s certainly not perfect, (or maybe… it is???) mostly because it absolutely hammers any player with little Augusta history, but I think it’s a decent starting point.
Anyway. Here’s the the expected schedule for Masters stuff this week
OUT — Masters Research (Video/Audio)
OUT — Masters DraftKings Picks (Video/Audio)
OUT — Masters Article (Written; DK Playbook)
MONDAY — Masters Bets and One & Done (Video/Audio)
MONDAY — Masters Newsletter v2.0 (email list)
TUESDAY — Masters Player-by-Player Review (Video/Audio)
TUESDAY — Masters DK Cheatsheet (Written; DK Playbook)
TUESDAY — Masters Bets and Props (Golf Digest)
WEDNESDAY — Masters DraftKings Pivot Plays (FTN Daily)
WEDNESDAY — Masters Live Chat on MMN (Video/Audio)
FRIDAY — Masters Cut Sweat Live (Video)
FRIDAY — Masters Weekend Preview (Video/Audio)
I saw a bunch of winning tickets from Sunday, but none bigger on our guy Riku’s.
Congrats!!!
Really shows the value of playing in the smaller contests. Obviously everyone can’t afford these stakes, but searching out smaller sized DK contests lets yo get away with so much more in your lineup. Basically, you don’t have to be absolutely perfect.
BASEBALL
MLB started, apparently. We’re doing NEW shows every day on MMN for Fantasy and Betting if you want to check those out. But, FTN agreed to extend my discount code on the MLB package + Optomizer to Thursday.
So, go to FTN Daily to get the full package. Punch in code “MAYO” to take it from $249.99 to $199.99 for the entire season. Not too shabby for a package that includes an opto. I do enjoy that the $249.99 move instead of $250. It seems like marketing strategy KMART would have employed in 1987. I was in the meeting too. It was my argument $250 would have saved precious font space on ads. But few people think like I do.
Fantasy Baseball Picks and Bets, the NEWWWW MMN show gets released every day. Watch it. Listen to it. Or don’t. I can’t force you to do anything.
CORONACAST
Finally, I did a show with Davis Mattek this week where we talk about things we barely understand Weight Loss Bets, Value of NFTs, High Speed Rail, Travel, and More. These are tend to be super polarizing but if you have nothing to listen to, it’s evergreen and will kill an hour. It’s up on the PME Podcast feed too.
MOVIE CLUB
The gambling movie club starts soon and Owning Mahowny is first up on the list. No idea where it’s streaming, Google can handle that for you, but there is a bootleg 720 version on YouTube if you don’t care about seeing Philip Seymour Hoffman’s face in the highest resolution possible.
THIS WEEK IN CUST TEXTS
While I give him an endless amount of shit, I’d like to get him up to 10K Twitter followers by his birthday, so follow @TimAnderson87 for insane claims and crazy takes.
Here are some highlights from our group thread this week. First, were you raised like me or Cust?
Cust bragging about that athleticism which earned him a 7.12 40 time…
And, finally, good news for the Mets…
— PM