Masters Final Bets, Make Cut Parlay, Weather, DK Ownership
MASTERS SHOW LIVE FROM VEGAS
Geoff and I will be going LIVEEEEEEE from Las Vegas 8pm ET Wednesday night to discuss out final plays, latest news, weather and whatever Qs you can throw at us. Set a reminder for that show here.
SET REMINDER: MASTERS FINAL PICKS LIVE FROM LAS VEGAS at 8pm ET
If you’re in Vegas, we’ll be doing a Masters/UFC watch along at the Circa Stadium Swim on Saturday if you wanna come hang.
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$1,000 Cash Giveaway ($250 x 4)
How to get in The Masters Cash Giveaway. It’s quick and easy to get ballots in the draw. Winners announced on the Wednesday Night LIVE Show.
30 Ballots: Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100:
https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-pat-mayo (This unlocks a Jordan Spieth Extra Free Square on UD for Thursday at The Masters Too)
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5 Ballots
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FINAL BETS
Hideki Matsuyama 25/1 — Only one player currently rivals Scheffler’s form entering Augusta, and that’s the former champ. Whatever issue he had with his driver in 2023 has been solved and, just like that, he found himself back in the winners circle for the first time in two years. He’ll always be an inconsistent putter, much like a lot of great players, but routinely gaining on the field off the tee, while mixing in upside spike weeks with that putter is a lethal combo with how good his irons have been and his all-world short game. He played C- golf a year ago and still managed to finish no worse than T32 in any Major. With a win and three straight Top 10s entering the year’s first Major.
Shane Lowry 50/1 — The Irishman’s tee-to-green game is among the world’s best, but the putter simply lets him down far too often. Yet, he’s one of three players with Top 25 finishes each of the past three years and he comes in averaging +5.4 SG: APP over his past three starts. He’s won a Major before, maybe he can just luck into a few putts over the weekend.
Sahith Theegala 60/1 — Top 10s in three of his past five, a lone missed cut on the season, and a silver medal at one of the biggest crossover over courses to kick off 2024 at Kapalua. Plus, he’s got the magic beans gene; the most unquantifiable skill for Augusta. You know it when you see it. Spieth has it. Cam Smith has it. Bubba has it. Scheffler has it. The more the shot, somehow, the better he becomes. We witnessed it in his debut a year ago when he finished Top 10. He’s a better player now.
Cam Young 66/1 — Yes. I got grifted into Scam Young. I got a 66/1 hung in front of me and I couldn’t resist. It was easier for Eve to pass on the apple. Young has seven second place finishes in two years, along with Top 10 finishes in four of his last seven Major starts. That resume looks like someone’s who’s going to win at some point. A lot. It’s not unheard of that The Master would be someone’s first win, but it’s not impossible either. The ball striking is among the elite, and he proved he can mage the short game a year, in his second Augusta appearance, finishing T7. If you need can more tips on how to light a $100 bill on fire, I’ll be here all week.
NOTE: I bet these guys all to win at Bet365 to take advantage of their Top 8 each ways. To use an example, Taylor Moore’s Top 8 as a part of the each way pays 60/1. To merely bet him Top 10 is 16/1. I get to invest less money for a much larger payout along with the lotto ticket of the win. Makes no sense to do the other way.
Chris Kirk 150/1 (8 Places)
His latest form would suggest a quick exit, but long term, he’s been a consistently excellent iron player and his win at Kapalua shouldn’t be over looked. Rahm, Reed, Spieth, Dustin, and Zach Johnson have all won there in the past 10 years. And they all have green jackets. I’ve come up with worse reasons to lose money on someone at the back of the field. Kirk returned to Augusta 12 months ago after seven years and finished T23. That puts him at 3 of four cuts made with a pair of Top 25s.
Thorbjorn Olesen 200/1 (8 Places)
One of the few players in the field who ha actually won a tournament in 2024 (Ras Al Khaimah Championship in January). Since coming to America he was having a tougher go than Prince Akeem, until last week. A T14 may not be all that great, it was encouraging to see the Dane spike his best approach and around the green week of the PGA season so far. It’s been a while since he’s played at Augusta, yet he remains 3/3 in cuts made with Top 20 finishes in two of those starts.
Taylor Moore 300/1 (8 Places)
Top 20 in the field in approach over the past 24 rounds in addition to a Top 10 ranking around the greens. Moore cut his teeth in his first Augusta appearance a year ago finishing a respectable T39 as a debutant. He hasn’t missed a cut since last year’s Open Championship and rides in with consecutive Top 12 finishes. Moore’s got plus distance and horrendous accuracy which should actually benefit him here with the extendo fairways and lack of tough as long as he misses on the proper part of the hole. The big thing with him, though; the touch around the greens. Moore’s ability to control his ball speed green side has turned him into an excellent scrambler while his lag putting has been some of the best on tour in 2024. The short putts, they still remain problematic.
MAKE THE CUT PARLAY
Since I’m flush with Bhatia cash from last week, lets go YOLO and shoot for the moon with a 10K to make the cut parlay. Now, you can take Tiger off this and it pays 43/1 instead. I played that one too.
UNDERDOG
Also, if you’ve used code “MAYO” at Underdog already, you get a special bonus next week. If you haven’t used code “MAYO” (or the link below) to sign up, then there’s still time to do it and get said special bonus. Beyond the $100 deposit match you’ll get, Underdog is offering a a FREE SQUARE for Scottie Scheffler Thursday at The Masters: 0.5 strokes over under. I get Scottie’s good. He’s not that good to hit the under. Everyone will get that one. But, people who signed up with code “MAYO” will receive a second free square of Jordan Spieth 0.5 strokes on Thursday as well. A little more incentive to come over to Underdog and test the waters.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
Since you have a FREE SQUARE (two with code MAYO), you want to make the odds as crazy as possible. It’s like having a free bet at a sportsbook. Here’s an 83/1 I cooked up for Thursday.
TAIL THE THURSDAY UNDERDOG 83x ENTEY HERE
WEATHER
Figuring out the correct weather wave this week is basically impossible since we have no clue how delays will affect when the players will be on the course. MANY PEOPLE ARE SAYING (Trump voice) the Late/Early have the best of it. Which could very well be true btw. But entire day of rain Thursday now only looks like a half day of rain lasting until 1/2pm, and by tonight that could be even earlier with some sprinkles in the afternoon. If they make the AM wave play through it in super gusty conditions, they’re gonna get hammered. However, if they push back tee times until 10a,ish, the AMs may get the best of the first two days.
The sub air system at Augusta is wildly effective, but not instantaneous. If delayed, the AM wave may get the best chance to fire at round one pins in the softest conditions. Additionally, if it’s delayed enough, they may get that advantage while also potentially finishing their second round Saturday morning completely devoid of extreme wind. I wouldn’t say that’s likely, but certainly possible. So anyone telling you a particular wave is a lock to have an advantage is either confused or lying.
I played both sides. As I spoke about with Tambo on the DK picks show, I get so many picks wrong that separating the field into two waves to build lineups actually helps my lineups in terms of getting lucky. And that’s all you’re trying to do with a wave stack: Make lineups clustered together in time enough that if an advents window opens, you have the guys in it.
WIND TOWER: Daniel Field Airport
I entered 80 lineups this week: 40 mixed, 20 AM/PM and 20 PM/AM. I played one side in the $250 and the other in the $200.
What I didn’t realize before making said lineups was how many of the cheap guys I liked were in the AM wave: Moore, Charl, Olsen, Kirk, Sergio, Henley, Min WOO. So I had to talk myself into some PM cheapies to make those lineups work: Tiger, Grillo, Si WOO, and Scott. Also, if you do a PM stack, expect A LOT of Brooks/Spieth teams. But you can finagle some good Cam Young/Lowry/Theegala cores.
DraftKings Ownership
I’m having a tough time wrapping my mind around exact numbers this week for the big DK contests. For example, I think Scottie comes in around 33% on average. However, if I’m wrong and it’s pushing 40%, then that directly boosts up the Henely, Conners, Si Woo, Denny, Bhatia range. If I’m way off on that assessment and he comes in lower than those guys will lose a little bit too. But this isn’t where you come for fence sitting on these topics. I’m here to make mob guesses:
Scheffler 33%
Hideki 24%
Xander 23%
Conners 20%
Henley 19%
Fleetwood 18%
Theegala 17%
Lowry 17%
Fitzpatrick 17%
Rory 16%
Lets luck sack some cash this week. And tune into the LIVE SHOW TONIGHT…
SET REMINDER: MASTERS FINAL PICKS LIVE FROM LAS VEGAS at 8pm ET
— PM