THEE BETS
I broke it down with Rasa on todays show, but it’s throw shit at the wall and hope it sticks kinda week across the three event. I did give some color however…
WATCH: JDC, LIV, IRISH Final Bets & Weather
BEZ — I feel like we’ve tried this a bunch of times already this year, but Bez at a wedge course where putting inside 10 feet counts for everything, is actually perfectly suited for the South African. He’s gained on the field inside 10 feet in each of his past four starts and even gained on his irons 125 yards and in last week at the Travelers when he lost almost 3 strokes on approach in only two rounds.
HUH — The man of many question marks has gained an average of over seven strokes tee-to-green over his last three starts, while sitting second in the field in proximity from 125-150 yards, along with T25 grades in birdies-or-better gained, P4 350-400, and P4 400-450 over the past 24 rounds. His only win came at an alternate event, and this is basically an alternate event, so why not???
Kelly Kraft — Kraft has now strung together a weekend appearance in four of his past five starts (with two T20 finishes), and it can be directly related to two key skills: putting inside 10 feet and scoring short Par 4s. Two things that are especially perfect for TPC Deere Run. With eight holes measuring between 350-450 yards, a quick scan of Kraft’s numbers reveal he’s one of the best players in the field on holes from that range over the past 24 rounds. While his putting overall has been good, he’s been excellent from in close, the key to contending at an easy course. He’s No. 1 in this field from inside 10 feet.
CONTENT
DraftKings Picks, Final Bets, Weather + Chat Replay
Bets/One and Done
Research Show
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GALAXY BRAIN: Stacking Scrubs
This profiles as a putting contest and that’s … fun. You’ll hear plenty of arguments this week that accuracy off the tee isn’t as critical this week due to the easier to hit fairways, a format that, in theory, rewards length, as we assume everyone will be playing from the short stuff. But we are here to overthink things … so what if that’s the wrong angle to take?
Instead, what if we take the “easy to hit fairways” thing and spin it the other way? That is, because we expect you to be in position, being out of position is actually a bigger hindrance to scoring. That a bogey here hurts much more than a bogey on a course with thin fairways. Zig when they zag. Sorta. Last season, six of the top-10 finishers gained on distance … 9 gained fairways (with three of the top-7 in fairways for the week cashed a Top 10 paycheck). In 2019 (2020 was skipped), the top-3 finishers were all 11th or better in terms of fairways gained and their cumulative distance off the tee was below field average. The Michael Kim year? Yes, he putted the lights out, but he was more than 9 yards shorter than the field and picked up nearly 6 fairways on the field (+5.0 good drives as well, hitting fairways was a clear focal point). Bryson won this thing in 2017, but it wasn’t beefy Bryson. He wasn’t top-25 in driving distance that week, but he was T-12 in GIRs … another finesse way to the top of the board.
Brief proof of how important putting will be this week:
2021: The top six putters all cashed top-11 checks
2019: Smelly Fritelli won despite losing on approach (he was the
second best putter of the week)
2018: 10 of the top-11 finishers gained putting, 7 of them picking up multiple strokes on the field
2017: Each of the top-38 finishers broke even or gained with the flat stick (the top-2 putters were 1-2 on the final leaderboard)
Here are the top 20 qualified players in this field over their past 50 rounds played on easy-to-average scoring courses with bent grass greens and how they rank in terms of putting and proximity in those events (sorted by the average of those two rankings):
I left Berger in just to show where he ranks in the event that you liked his profile pre-WD and wanted a similar skill set. Putting is, of course, a very fickle stat and that’s kinda why I like going down the betting board in the outright market this week. It’s also why I think you can get real funky with your DK lineup construction … ownership is going to be all over the place and if you feel good about your cheap plays, why not? After the markets adjusted for the Berger WD, the top 4 on this chart were STILL 70-to-1 or longer to win this thing.
Hank Lebioda: T-8th at this event last season, over 2 strokes gained on approach in 3 of his past 4
Brian Stuard: T-8th at this event last season thanks to a big putting week (+7.2) that was pre-dated by gaining SG:P in his two measured events prior … something he has done this time around as well.
Zach Johnson: Glorious track record here. Has gained strokes with the putter in every non-big time tournament he has played since the beginning of February
Mark Hubbard: 4 straight made cuts and in those events, he’s gained (cumulative) 12 strokes in approach and 7.4 strokes putting
I like the idea of stacking skill sets and if you tell me I can scrub stack skill sets … SOLD! This could go completely sideways, but I stand by the general idea of building a profile and committing to it. This is an awful field, so if there was ever a time to get creative and think outside of the box, this feels like the spot to do so. Invest small, swing big. Worst case, you saved money from a normal exposure week. Best case, you line your pockets with The Open not far away.
2022 NFL CONTENT GUIDE
It’s allllllmossssttttttt time for the rankings shows. I know this, because I’ve done them already. Thursday WR RANKS with Leone. Tuesday RB Ranks with Ciley. Both quality show. Well, entertaining at the very least.
Also, the early bird pack for DFS and NFL Betting is OPEN at Run The Sims. Code “MAYO” gets you 10% off that already slashed price. I suggest doing it.
TOOLS: RUN THE SIMS OPO, PROJECTIONS, PROPS TOOS 10% OFF
Confusing Offesnes
Stacks & W17 Correlations
2022 Best Ball Strategy
WR Busts + HYPE Players
Intro to Fantasy Football
RB Rookies
WR Rookies
JDC Weather
TOWER: SILVIS
SCOTTISH OPEN
There’s not too much stat info from the Scottish Open a year ago, HOWEVER, Matt, who runs the SGTEE2GREEN account, is an invaluable resource for EURO Strokes Gained numbers. Here’s what he had for the Top 20 finishers from the Renaissance Club the Past two years.
The Renaissance Club has hosted the Scottish Open each of the pas three years with Min WOOOO Lee, Aaron Rai, and Bernd Wiesberger winning the event. If you want by-round data, just search it on his feed.
Of note: These are the per round averages in the charts, no total numbers. You likely knew that, but there’s enough people out there who don’t that I want to get out in front of the messages now. Also, for those out of the know, the Scottish Open is next week, teh IRISH OPEN is this week. Just getting out ahead of the game on this.
2021
2020
DraftKings Ownership
The guesses!!! If you have the guts, Jason Day, Cam Champ, and CT Pan project to be the lowest owned players above 8K. Pan and Champ I can do. I believe even I, who loses money every week, is tooooooo cowardly for Mr. Day. Actually I’m not. I’m going down with Day on DK.
WATCH: JDC DraftKings Picks & Ownership
Webb
Stallings
Hadwin
Oh Hai, Denny
Schenk
Cam Davis
CH3
Poston
Svennsson
HUH
Rodgers
Good Luck
— PM