John Deere Bets, Course Preview, UD RD1, Weather, DK Picks
John Deere Bets
NOTE: Most of these wagers were made Monday morning and included in the Monday Picks show. Since, Patrick Cantlay, Taylor Montgomery (Flea Market), and Cam Davis have withdrawn and most of these numbers have shrunk.
Sungjae Im — The irons are clicking and so is the putter. There’s more than a worry some mid-tier jabroni is simply going to make all their birdie putts inside 20-feet and run away with it, but them’s the breaks. For the odds, Im is significantly better than everyone in this field outside of Straka.
Seamus Power — As I discovered on the research show, Power’s wedges are where he’s primarily gaining his strokes on the field. That’s important for Deere Run. And it’s been encouraging to see his putter flip over the last month. After losing two strokes putting per start from Valero through Canada, the Irishman has now gained in three in a row. That bodes well for his projected considering he’s gained in all of his five starts at the JDC.
Joel Dahmen — Ol’ Bucket hat has increased his T2G in each of his past four starts. It hasn’t meant much for his bank account as the putter has been frigid. But rarely will you find a number this big on a player in a weak field whose ball striking has been so consistently good for months and needs to luck into a few hot putting rounds. Looking at a blind resume, there’s basically no difference between Dahmen and Keith Mitchell. Expect Dahmen is double to triple Mitchell’s odds depending on where you look.
Ben Silverman — The Canadian really only does two things well: Pin seek from 150 and putt from inside 15 feet. Over the past 12 round he doesn’t rank outside the Top 25 in any of those proximity for putting ranges.
Ben Kohles — He flashed hiss winning prowess on KFT a year ago with a pair of victories, and has now started to string together some solid finishes as the summer churns along. Kohles should have won at the bunny ranch in May, and since that 72nd hole collapse has sneakily been playing great despite a lack of top end results. He’s losing off the tee, but hitting a ton of fairways. That’s good enough for Deere Run. He’s averaging +3 SG:PUTT over his last 4 starts and has been picking up strokes against solid fields on approach. He gained at both the PGA and US Open, while picking up +3.9 in Detroit last week.
Jake Knapp — Poor guy was devastated by holes 1 & 2 at Detroit GC last week. Then mailed it in during the final round. You need to catch him on a decent putting week (as you do most players) but his game is close enough to capitalize on it if he does.
Neal Shipley — You can bet Clanton at 35/1 (yes, 35/1 right now) or get basically triple the piece on Shipley who has been incredibly solid in his last two starts (US Open and RMC). Shipley produced a Top 20 a week ago despite losing 2.3 strokes on the green and finishing in a tie for 5th in approach.
Pi. Coody — Because I can’t stop doing the voice. That and his usually solid putting stroke failed him last week. He should bounce back… BIGLY.
ONE AND DONE — Cust had originality selected Spieth for the week, but it was brought to my attention he’d used Spieth in Phoenix. So he switched to Keith Mitchell.
WINNERS
I spoke with Tambo on the show today and he was pretty bummed about his final result in the Fantasy Golf World Championships. He’s still giving away that 5% of his winnings, though. It’s just of $20,000 not $1M. Thanks for everyone who supported Tambo, Me, and all of our content with these giveaways. There will be more coming soon.
UNDERDOG RD 1 PICK’EM
Here are the GIR and Fairway rates over the past 5 years at Deere Run…
JOIN: 20% OFF Tools and Stats at FantasyNational.com
Meaning, the field average for fairways hit is 9.8 on the 14 non-Par 3 while the GIR rate is 12.78/18 for the course. So the best move is to attack the HIGHER on low fairway props and LOWER GIR props on players who have been struggling with their irons. And the great part about targetting those two props is it leads to anti-coorelation and a better pay out on your Underdog entry.
Here’s the 3-BANGER I cooked up for Rd 1.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $250 and tail this entry with this link.
If you didn’t know, there’s an OVER/UNDER tool for Pick’em Entries on Fantasy National. Here’s how it rates out Jason Day…
If you roll the dice on a bigger payout, you can tail what Tambo and I put together on the show Wednesday morning…
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $250 and tail this entry with this link.
This probably would have been good enough without Mitchell. But we got greedy.
John Deere Classic: Field
156 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make The Cut
First Tee: Thursday, July 4 (AMERICA!!!)
Defending Champion: Sepp Straka
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Opportunities Gained
Par 4s Gained 400-450 Yards
Proximity Gained 150-175 Yards
JOIN: 20% OFF Tools and Stats at FantasyNational.com
Course
Course: TPC Deere Run
Yards: 7,289
Par: 71
Greens: Bentgrass
Sand Bunkers: 76
Holes Water is in Play: 3
WINNERS
2023: Sepp Straka (-21)
2022: J.T. Poston (-21)
2021: Lucas Glover (-19)
2020: DNP
2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21)
2018: Michael Kim (-27)
2017: Bryce DeChambeau (-18)
2016: Ryan Moore (-22)
2015: Jordan Spieth (-20)
2014: Brian Harman (-22)
2013: Jordan Spieth (-19)
COURSE
Par 3's (4): Average Distance -- 197 yards
- Three of them rank among the seven toughest holes on the course (all with a birdie rate under 16.5% and a double-or-worse rate of at least 1%)
- Straka was +1 on the Par 3's through Friday, but closed things down over the weekend by going 3-under on those holes.
Par 4's (11): Average Distance -- 435 yards
- The two toughest holes on the course are Par 4's to end each nine. The 503-yard #9 owns the highest bogey rate on property while the 476-yard #18 is home to the highest double-or-worse percentage (4.3%).
- Straka made five bogeys in his win last season ... four came on Par 4's (two on #9)
Par 5's (3): Average Distance -- 576yards
- Three of the four easiest holes on the course with #2 seeing over half the field birdie it and 4% pick up two strokes.
- In Rounds 2-3, Straka birdied both back-9 Par 5's (he birdied all three of the 5's on Friday)
DraftKings Streak
With both 9's closing in difficult fashion, there isn't likely to be a ton of streaks that bridge either turn. That said, going back-to-front gives you access to 16-17 and 1-2 ... four holes that are among the six easiest on the course. Hole 18 (13% birdie rate) is easier than Hole 9 (8.9% birdie rate) and the surrounding holes are as friendly as you could ask for ... if you like how your golfers project for the 476 yard challenge of Hole 18, you could uncover a run of 5 straight and vault up the standings in a hurry!
2023: Sepp Straka (-21, two clear of Alex Smalley and Brendon Todd)
- Straka was 11 back after Thursday, but carded nothing worse than a 65 after the opening 73 and picked up 5+ strokes on both Smalley and Todd on Sunday)
- Eight golfers picked up over 5 strokes putting for the week. Their finishing positions: 1-2-4-6-6-6-6-21
2022: J.T. Poston (-21, three clear of Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Emiliano Grillo)
- The first round leader by two strokes was five better than Grillo through two days (seven better than C-Bez)
- The top-7 finishers all gained ground on the field in proximity from 200+ yards (five of them lost strokes inside of 100 yards)
2021: Lucas Glover (-19, two clear of Ryan Moore and Kevin Na)
- How good is your good? Glover was tied for the best round on both Friday (63) and Sunday (64, four better than the two runner-ups) to help offset a 68 on Thursday and 70 on Saturday.
- Each of the top-10 finishers gained strokes putting from 10-15 feet with Glover easily being the best (+4.1, no one else reached +3)
2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21, two clear of Russell Henley)
- He was 5 strokes better over the weekend than he was the first two rounds and closed with his best (64, needed it to survive a 61 from Henley)
- One top-25 finisher lost strokes in approach ... it was Frittelli (-0.9). He offset it by picking up a total of 12.3 strokes ARG+P.
2018: Michael Kim (-27, eight clear of Bryson Burgood, Joel Dahmen, Francesco Molinari, and Sam Ryder)
- He led going into the weekend (63-64) and didn't let up on moving day (64). It's not hard to close when you have one of the top-4 rounds in each of the first three days.
- Kim picked up 13.5 strokes putting, helping him dominate in a week in which he was "just" 16th best T2G
NOTES
Lowest driving accuracy % since 2000 has been 63% (2022)
8’ 6” proximity to hole (ARG), the fifth longest average of any course on the PGA TOUR in 2022
18% putting percentage from 15’ to 25’, the fifth highest putting percentage of any course from that distance
77’ 3” average feet of putts made, the third highest average of any course
40,000+ total birdies, the most of any course on TOUR Since 2000
359 birdies or better by Zach Johnson, the most of any player at this event since 2000
WEATHER
The wind and rain looks pretty dicey from Friday-Sunday, but Thursday looks like primo conditions. If those GIR number on Underdog remain the same or get boosted because players doiminate Thursday, feel free to chase under in these conditions if the props start getting out of control.
Wind Tower: Iowa-Illinois Memorial Bridge
DRAFTKINGS
I stayed away from tee time stacks this week and just rolled out combos of Sungjae/Straka/Rai (like everyone else) and tried to shake it up at the bottom. Here are all the players I used 7.5 and below across 45 lineups.
WATCH: John Deere Classic DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Bets, Weather
I have a business of Podcasting show dropping Thursday which I really liked, your opinions may vary. After that, I’ll see ya again Sunday for the Scottish Open research. Have an awesome holiday weekend, stay safe, and lets win some cash!
— PM