HOUSTON OPEN PICKS & VALSPAR RECAP
Despite “not wanting to bet this week,” Geoff will, in fact, bet on golf this week. We broke down the course and odds, and recapped the Valspar: Mainly focusing on Cam Young and how his first two years are mimicking some other top players. Scottie included.
WATCH: Houston Open Picks, Bets, One and Done | Valspar Championship Recap
If you missed the Houston Open research show…
WATCH: Houston Open Picks and Research
NEW LISTENER’S LEAGUE
The Pat Mayo Experience listeners league you are used to is obviously no longer on DraftKings. It has migrated over to Underdog Fantasy and is up right now and it starts, obviously, when the tournament starts Thursday.
It’s only a one-round tournament for now, though. What we need to do is fill these ones up as quickly as possible for the Valspar for Houston for Valero for the Thursday. Only filling these quickly contest that will show Underdog that there’s a lot of interest and what we really to push it up a level is a full tournament contest.
The NEW PME CLASSIC is rake free, $20 per entry. We need all of you to get over there and fill it. It’s around 65% full right now, so if you haven’t signed up for Underdog yet, now is the time to go do that. Although some states don’t have Underdog pick’em available like Florida or Pennsylvania, you are allowed to do drafts in those states so it’s even more incentive to go in there and join the Pat Mayo Experience Classic.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
Please go do that now as it helps out the contest and helps out all of you. Clearly, it helps me out all at the same time, because not only will they make these contests bigger and more in the vein of what we actually want, we get bigger rake free prize pools in an unfamiliar format for a lot of us at the same time too.
The drafts will commerence when tee times are released Tuesday afternoon.
Texas Children’s Houston Open
144 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make the Cut
First Tee: Thursday, March 28
Defending Champion: Tony Finau
Favorites
Scottie Scheffler +290
Wyndham Clark 13/1
Will Zalatoris 19/1
Sahith Theegala 22/1
Tony Finau 24/1
Jason Day 27/1
Based on the opening odds, the books have taken money on Scottie and Zalatoris so far. Somehow, Scheffler has dropped below 3/1 from his open, and Zalatoris plunged from 22/1 to 19/1 pretty quickly.
Conversely, it appears like books have yet to take a bet on Finau. He opened at 16/1 and dropped to 24/1 mere hours later. Day has slipped a few points too, while Clark and Theegala have remained static.
Course: Memorial Park GC
Yardage: 7,435
Par: 70
Greens: MiniVerde bermudagrass
Number of Sand Bunkers: 19
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 4
Par 3's (5): Average distance -- 192 yards
- Hole #11 (237 yards) is the toughest hole to birdie on the course (5.5%)
- 2022 winner Tony Finau birded the easiest of the Par 3's (167-yard #2) in three of four rounds
Par 4's (10): Average distance -- 467 yards
- Finau carded a 62 on Friday the last time we saw this played ... even when playing lights out, he was only -2 on the Par 4's
- You've got to stick the approach close ... 42.5% of birdie putts come within 5 feet here, well above the TOUR average of 36.8%
Par 5's (3): Average distance -- 597 yards
- Hole #16 can be a hinge hole: 26.4% of players go under par, but 17.3% score over par (4.6% double-or-worse)
- Par 5 scoring is usually a mandate across the TOUR, but only two of the top 5 in SG:Par 5 cashed top 15 paychecks the last time we played this event
DRAFTKINGS STREAK
There's a real edge to be had here this week. Going back-to-front means you run into two of the three toughest holes on the course, both which carry a sub 10% birdie rate and an over-par rate north of 25%. When going front-to-back, holes 8-9-10 all have a birdie rate over 12% (Hole 8's 30.1% birdie rate is the second highest on the course). The back-9 is the tougher set of holes, but as the golfers get ready for it, they have a chance to go streaking!
Tom Doak did a complete renovation of the course in 2019 (started in January and the course re-opened in November). Brooks Koepka assisted. The renovation and redesign brought ravines and water into play and reduced the number of bunkers from 54 to 19. Three of the bunkers are surrounding the 18th green.
Tons of run off areas and false fronts on a lot of greens. Many greens elevated as well.
There are five Par 4s 490 yards or longer. They all play over par and are five of the six toughest holes on the course.
500+ Yard P4 Leaders over last 36 Rounds
NEW LEADERBOARD APP!!!!
Think the PGA Leaderboard APP blows? So did we. That’s why we created the only one you’ll ever use again. It’s available in test mode RIGHT NOW for members of Fantasy National, and it’s been expanded to Android on top of iPhone now too. There’s a banner at the top of the FN page if you want to get on the list. For existing members, it’s no extra charge, it’s just an add on to the membership. But if you’re not a member, you’ll need to become one. Here, have 20% off (along with access to every other tool).
JOIN: 20% OFF Tools and Stats at FantasyNational.com
PAST WINNERS
2023- Tony Finau: -16
2022 - Jason Kokrak: -10
2021 - Carlos Ortiz: -13
2020- Lanto Griffin: -14
Last four Houston Open’s played in November
WINNERS NOTES
2023 - Tony Finau: -16 (four clear of Tyson Alexander)
-His 65 on Thursday put him in a 3-way tie for first and after a 62 on Friday, he was four shots clear of the field
- The top 6 finishers all gained strokes on the field putting from BOTH 5-10 feet and 10-15 feet (four of them lost ground in the 15-20 foot bucket)
2022 - Jason Kokrak: -10 (two clear of Scottie Scheffler and Kevin Tway)
- He saved his best round for Sunday (65) and separated himself over the weekend (7 better than Scheffler and 10 clear of Tway)
-The finishing position for the best putters for the week (in order, starting with the best putter): 29-1-2-5-15-4
2021 - Carlos Ortiz: -13 (two clear of Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama)
- 68 or better in every round (his 65 on Sunday was his best, but the day was made for scoring -- there were four rounds better)
- Ortiz wasn't anything special off the tee (+0.4), but was top 5 in the field in both SG:ARG and SG:P (+11.8 strokes cumulative)
2020 - Lanto Griffin: -14 (one clear of Scott Harrington and Mark Hubbard)
- Wasn't consistent (66-74-65-69) but that 65 on moving day was 4 better than Hubbard and 7 better than Harrington.
- 15 of the top 16 finishers gained on Par 4's 400-450 yards
Key Stats
I’ve updated the model inputs slightly from the research show Sunday. Here’s how I weighted it now.
STAT POWER RANKINGS (Past 12 Rounds)
Mixed Condition Model
Clearly, there’s one name on here not quite like the others: The Bramwagon.
He’s traded middling finishes with missed cuts all season thus far, but he is coming off his best week of the year at Valspar, gaining over three strokes on approach for the first time in over a year. (+3.6 SG: APP at Mexico Open 2023). He’s played Memorial Park twice since the redesign, missing the cut in 2021, and churning put a T9 in 2022, gaining 9.3 strokes T2G.
MLB SHOWS LIVE
MLB Season starts on Thursday (someone told me that, at least). And there’s still tons of room in Underdog drafts with HUGE prizes up top. If you wanted to jump in, Big John has been doing draft videos and talking through his strategy up on MMN. He’ll be on PME Tuesday to give out his favorite future bets of the year too if you looking for long odds to bet on.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
John will be LIVE on MMN every week night in-season giving out his best plays of the day. If you like actually winning money, John’s the guy for you.
WATCH: 2024 MLB Best Ball Underdog Draft Breakdown — Turn $10 to $100K!!!
Picks/Bets
Will Zalatoris 22/1 — I thought it was a pretty generous number considering what he’s been with Scottie + all the other best players on TOUR in the field the past month. Yes, his PLAYERS was a disappointment, but Sawgrass will do that on any given year. You primarily want Zalatoris at longer, more difficult courses, and Memorial Park fits that bill. He’s currently averaging over a stroke per round on approach in his past 12 rounds, one of only a handful of players better than Scheffler over that time. Plus, as Andy Lack pointed out: Peak Tiger, who was a stroke per round better than Scottie is right now, won 27% of the time. He’s not going to win every tournament he plays.
Luke List 66/1 (With 5 Places) — Just hoping to catch List in the right week where the chipping and putting aren’t a complete disaster. He managed to finished T11 here in 2021 despite losing 5.8 strokes with his putter, so if he can be better than that, he gets to tackle a course which primarily plays into his skill set of long drives and mid irons.
Tyson Alexander 250/1 (With 8 Places) — He may not be big enough of a long shot based on the winners so far this season. The odds are justified however, considering he’s only managed one Top 20 finish in seven starts this year (Honda T16). There are signs of turning it around, though. He’s gained off the tee in two of his last three and on approach in three of his last four. That’s a positive. Then you have his history in Texas. I won’t pretend there’s no missed cuts at Colonial and Bunny Ranch in there, but he posted a solo second in his debut here in 2022, plus, his only two KFT wins came in consecutive years at Texas Rangers Golf Club in Arlington.
Short List for bets, but not bet yet:
Jason Day
Akshay
Taylor Moore
Bud Cauley
Chris Gotterup
Parker Coody
Andrew Novak
Joe Bramlett
If you actually want to win money betting on golf, I suggest the DP World Tour Picks and Bets show. Tom and Sky have hit a bunch of winners so far this year, including a 70/1 dude I had never heard of last week. I bet Manu Gandas at 400/1. Lets root for him to win.
WATCH: 2024 HERO INDIAN Open Picks, Bets
—PM