Houston Open Bets, DK Cheap Plays, Weather & UFL Pick'em
PICK’EM EDGES
The UFL starts THIS WEEK!!!!!!!!!!!!
I get that isn’t exciting for literally anyone, HOWEVAAAAAA it’s the best sport to exploit the Pick’em games. Especially on Underdog, unless they got super sharp over rte past 12 months with their lines. I cased out five-figures last year through pick’em, as did Paul Shag, and a lot of Run The Sims subs did too. Justin’s projection became so good they started adjusting to the RTS numbers by the time kick off started. Regular sports books won’t even offer player props for these leagues (cowards) but Underdog does. They’ve told me they’ll be dropping Thursday evening or Friday afternoon.
UFL, eSports, WNBA, these are the best ways to make money on these pick’em sites because your numbers can legit have a huge advantage against the house. The RTS numbers have each of the first two years of Spring football, mainly because Justin has the tools and does the depth chart research to exploit these edges. Plus, Run The Sims has the DK optimizer too. And there’s $50K to first on DK for Week 1. I’m primarily concerned about the Underdog pick’ems though since all of can win in stead of just one of us.
So, if you don’t have an underdog account. Do that now. Deposit $100 and get the bonus $100. Start your bankroll off at $200 and test the waters.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
Then, if you don’t have a sub yet, get one for Run The Sims now. It has the Player projections (under the showdown simulator) and will populate the winning percentages from the simulations versus the underdog lines shortly after they’re released. Along with the regular DFS tools you’re used to: Sims, Lineup Builder, Optimizer.
JOIN: Run The Sims Spring Football Package: Sims, Tools, Projections
Look, I’m not going to watch a minute of these stupid league. I didn’t any of the last two years either and it was easily my most profitable sport. Not even close, really.
LASTEST NEWS
I’m more concerned about Clark than Finau becoming the lead singer of Drive Shaft (NOT PENNYS BOAT!!!) But I’m just going to act like I didn’t see this after blowing it with Hideki at Bay Hill. Obviously, this is going to scare people off of him. Not that he’ll be single digit ownership, but it will likely increase the number of non-Scottie builds with Theegala and Zalatoris as the highest priced player. Clark has an afternoon tee time, so he’s primed to make me feel foolish after lock happens, but I’m still rolling him out in a single entry and in 25% of lineups.
Hopefully they’re not all dead by lunch. Maybe Clark will be a good guy and WD before lock if he knows he’s cooked? I’m up with my kids anyway, so I can adjust.
PME CLASSIC LISTENERS LEAGUE
Since you just got an Underdog account to smash UFL props, play in the PME Classic while you’re over there. It’s rake free, $20 per entry. We need all of you to get over there and fill it. SOOOOOOOO, if you haven’t signed up for Underdog yet, now is the time to go do that. Although some states don’t have Underdog pick’em available like Florida or Pennsylvania, you are allowed to do drafts in those states so it’s even more incentive to go in there and join the Pat Mayo Experience Classic.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
Please go do that now as it helps out the contest and helps out all of you. Clearly, it helps me out all at the same time, because not only will they make these contests bigger and more in the vein of what we actually want, we get bigger rake free prize pools in an unfamiliar format for a lot of us at the same time too. Plus, if we can fill these ones no problem, they may finally break and let us do drafts for the entire tournament.
HOUSTON BETS
Will Zalatoris 22/1
I thought it was a pretty generous number considering what he’s been with Scottie + all the other best players on TOUR in the field the past month. Yes, his PLAYERS was a disappointment, but Sawgrass will do that on any given year. You primarily want Zalatoris at longer, more difficult courses, and Memorial Park fits that bill. He’s currently averaging over a stroke per round on approach in his past 12 rounds, one of only a handful of players better than Scheffler over that time.
Tyson Luke List 66/1 (With 5 Places) — Just hoping to catch List in the right week where the chipping and putting aren’t a complete disaster. He managed to finished T11 here in 2021 despite losing 5.8 strokes with his putter, so if he can be better than that, he gets to tackle a course which primarily plays into his skill set of long drives and mid irons.
Taylor Moore 80/1 (With 5 Places)
I rode with Moore a week ago and I’m not giving up after a T12 in his T2G performance since winning at Copperhead the year previous. He gained over five strokes on approach for the second time in four starts and picked up strokes around the greens for the fourth time in five events. The driving reverted to its early year mediocrity, but Moore still possesses plus distance, and now gets a course with one of the lowest amount of fairways hit by the field, evening things out for him a bit.
Bud Cauley (With 8 Places) — I’m actually kinda shocked how respectable Cauley has been after being out off golf for almost four years. He broke my DK heart last week missing the cut coming home, however it was his first missed cut in three starts, and he’s been positive T2G in every event in 2024.While he’s generally the absolute shits with a putter in his hand, historically, he’s actually been very respectable in his home state. For his career, he’s losing 0.5 SG: PUTT per start (-1.0 per start over this last 10), yet gains a surprising +0.3 per round in Texas.
Tyson Alexander 250/1 (With 8 Places) — He may not be big enough of a long shot based on the winners so far this season. The odds are justified however, considering he’s only managed one Top 20 finish in seven starts this year (Honda T16). There are signs of turning it around, though. He’s gained off the tee in two of his last three and on approach in three of his last four. That’s a positive. Then you have his history in Texas. I won’t pretend there’s no missed cuts at Colonial and Bunny Ranch in there, but he posted a solo second in his debut here in 2022, plus, his only two KFT wins came in consecutive years at Texas Rangers Golf Club in Arlington.
NEW LEADERBOARD APP
Think the PGA Leaderboard APP blows? So did we. That’s why we created the only one you’ll ever use again. It’s available in test mode RIGHT NOW for members of Fantasy National, and it’s been expanded to Android on top of iPhone now too. There’s a banner at the top of the FN page if you want to get on the list. For existing members, it’s no extra charge, it’s just an add on to the membership. But if you’re not a member, you’ll need to become one. Here, have 20% off (along with access to every other tool).
JOIN: 20% OFF Tools and Stats at FantasyNational.com
DRAFTKINGS
There’s a want to play Scottie this week. I think he’ll be 35-45% in large GPPs and maybe 65%+ in small field, higher stakes. Tambo and I talked through different strategies and builds on the show today.
WATCH: Houston Open DFS Picks, Lineups, Final Bets, Ownership, Weather
If you’re getting as aggressive as me with Scottie lineups, here’s the pool of sub-$7K I’m rotating through lineups.
Weather
Maybe a slight lean to PM/AM becasue of Friday afternoon, but nothing too major. Or predictable. It’s Texas these things change on a dime.
— PM