HOT LINKS
Honda DraftKings Picks, Bets & One and Done
Honda Bets & Picks
XFL Week 2 Picks, Bets & DraftKings Preview
Netflix Full Swing Recap Ep 1/2/3
Honda Research
Hero Indian Open Picks & Bets
Honda Classic Bets
Yes, I went a bit overboard with three tours in play this week.
Min WOOOOOOO Lee — He’s simply has been churning out quality results over the past six months. Lee’s made eight consecutive cuts worldwide, never finishing worse than T13 in that stretch. That includes five Top 5 results, the most recent coming at the DPWT opener in Abu Dhabi when lost by a stroke. The Aussie has played wind-influenced tracks well in his career. Just look at his win at the Scottish Open and he is third in this field in driving distance.
Johnny Vegas — So far in 2023, Vegas has Top 25 finishes at Farmers and Phoenix while making the cut at Riviera. Now, the Genesis result wasn’t pretty, but a deeper dive into his numbers shows an excellent ball-striking week submarined by weak chipping and outright disastrous putting. The cold putter is nothing new, but he has experienced a modicum of success on the PGA National greens in his career. He’s made each of his past six cuts at the Honda Classic and gained putting three of the past four years.
Aaron Rai — Many have noted that PGA National has a track record of cross over with Open Championship and links success. Hello, Aaron Rai. Although the distance is non-existent, the Brit has been the most accurate driver in the field over the past 24 rounds per Fantasy National. He also sits second in GIR rate, especially important when the field is hovering around 60% in Palm Beach Gardens. Rai’s results have gotten progressively better the past three weeks, was sitting T5 after one round here last year in his debut, and scanning through his five career international wins between the DP and Challenger Tours, they all come in a combination of short, links, and/or wind affected tracks with his best US finishes all coming at more difficult than average courses: TPC Southwind, Torrey Pines, St. George’s, and The Concession.
Eric Cole — A veteran of the Florida Minor League Golf system, Cole’s gained on approach in six of his last seven starts, and now returns to familiar Bermudagrass on the greens. Cole ranks top five in the field in scrambling and sand saves for the year and has done his best work over his short PGA career on shorter courses.
Danny Lee — The most recent DEFECTOR to the LIV Tour, Lee actually has a bit of an advantage over his more skilled competitors (and teammates, I suppose) — He’s actually played competitive golf recently. Despite his MC at The RIV last week, he’s gained on approach in all five PGA starts in 2023. That’s a bonus. And he now gets to tackle Mayakoba, a venue in which he’s played as recently as November and one where’s experienced a bit of success. He’s never missed a cut, not that it matters for LIV, but he’s piled up three Top 7s in his career at the venue. Hopefully everyone else is just rusty and Lee can use his reps in 2023 to his advantage.
Manu Gandas & Kartik Sharma — Apparently these are real people. At least according to Sky and Tom from the Euro show. Let’s rock.
XFL DraftKings Picks, Bets
After a Week 1 which was spoiled in the last game on the last drive by Josh Gordon hitting his receiving over, we’re back for XFL Week 2 with a lot more knowledge about the league, players and teams.
WATCH: XFL Week 2 Picks, Bets, Props
Justin did all the grinder work with market shares and usages and incorporated everything into the simulations and projections this week. The first game is Thursday which begins the $50K to 1st DraftKings slate. The other three games are the weekend, where I’m guessing there will be a 2 or 3 game slate for some solid money up top too. Maybe a Saturday and Sunday night showdown slate with potentially 5 figures to the winner. So, there’s a chance with some good info and tools, and a bit of luck, you can make more in three hours than the guys in the XFL do for the season.
TOOLS: XFL SIMULATIONS/PROJECTIONS/LINEUP BUILDER
What I gleaned from Week 1
Seattle loves to pass.
Houston is pretty good.
Sal Cannella is the only TE worth targetting right now.
DC looked a lot better at the end of the game than the begining. If D'Eriq King gets the start for them he’s essentially the only duel threat QB starting in the league and has a YUGE DK ceiling. No starter has been named currently.
XFL BETS/PROPS
o36 Thursday for SEA/STL
DC +3 Saturday
o39.5 ATL/HOU
The best market for profit in all of XFL is Prize Picks. Standard sportsbooks are tooo chicken to release props for the league, but Prize Picks has been releasing numbers every week. The lines get beat into place pretty quickly upon dropping (nothing out as of Wednesday afternoon, not even for Thursday yet), but this is where we feel we have the biggest edge before adjustment. The Run The Sims Prize Picks tool will give you best percentages on all props for the week, but you’ll do best if you hit them as close as possible to them getting released.
Use code DOP at Prize Picks for a deposit match up to $100
If you want to give it a spin and try and build a bankroll, use code “DOP” at prize picks on first deposit and get a match on your money up to $100. So then at least you have $200 to try and grow.
The Tidbits
So you don’t have to, Tambo has aggregated the best free content from around the golf world this week. Plus, he’s giving away money.
Honda Classic DK NOTES
Never a better time to embrace variance than
In Florida
At a course with a ton of water
In a shitty field
WATCH: Honda DK PICKS, BETS, ONE & DONE
Tambo and I talked through the event to try and find the right types of builds to get to the top of DK tournaments this week. Personally, with expected carnage per the tradition at Honda, I’ve increased my player pool by about 33% this week over 50 lineups. Normally, I try to stick to 18-22 players for 50 lineups and hope I’m correct that week to give me a lot of runners on the weekend. This week, I’m up to about 30-35 scattered in each range. It’s still at least ~15% of everyone I played, but no one player is locked in at above 50%. We’ll see if this work.
It’s easy to make lineups and set expoures with the Fantasy National Lineup Generator. Tell it the guys you want and it will only make lineup with those players. Simple Stuff. And here’s 20% off all memberships…
GET 20% OFF FANTASY NATIONAL DFS/BETTING TOOLS
I posted this earlier this week when our friend Joe Idone, who is local to PGA National, made mention of avoiding the right side of the course, where the agua is lurking…
PS Thursday on the Pod feed, me and Davis are chopping it up about Streaming Service Wars, Chat GPT, Regional Accents, Twitter threads, Daniel Craig, LIV vs PGA Golf, GOAT QBs, Media Habits and more. It’s a fun show. On Friday I should have my appearence on LOLZ posted as well. If you’re looking for podcasts to kill time, I have youu covered.
— PM